Activity-Based Model: Requisite for a New Travel Demand Forecasting Approach for India

Urban travel demand prediction accuracy and testing of sensitivity of policies ranging from infrastructure provision to travel behavior modification are essential for emerging economies like India which is characterized by its heterogeneity of population, multiple modes and their varying supply and demand, mixed land use environment, and varying traffic flow conditions. Traditional four-stage travel demand models are unable to account for this heterogeneity due to its theoretical and applied limitations. Activity-based models (ABMs) are recommended to overcome these limitations. However, their applications to developing countries are limited due to difficulties in data collection and computational challenges. We attempt to establish the need and way around for the formulation of an integrated land use-transportation modeling framework based on the ABM approach through an intense conjectural study on existing models used in India and different ABMs developed across the globe. Finally, a comprehensive land use-transportation modeling framework including different sub-models is suggested for the Indian context.