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2020 | Book

Advances in Natural Hazards and Hydrological Risks: Meeting the Challenge

Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Natural Hazards (NATHAZ'19), Pico Island—Azores 2019

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About this book

This book gathers the proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Natural Hazards (NATHAZ'19), held in Lajes do Pico, Pico Island, Azores in 2019. Natural hazards constitute the threat of a naturally occurring event having a negative effect on human beings. These effects are often called natural disasters. Among the natural hazards and potential disasters to be considered are: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, subsidence, floods, droughts and coastal erosion. In addition, there are anthropogenic hazards that occur as a result of human interactions with the environment. They include technological hazards, which occur due to exposure to hazardous substances in the environment. Grasping the behaviour of natural systems requires a comprehensive understanding of climatology, geology and hydrology data and dynamics. Thus, it is important to conduct hazard and risk assessment studies for meaningful hazard mitigation. Further, the book demonstrates that an accurate understanding of natural systems and interactions between engineering and natural resources is of vital significance to the entire socio-economic sector. This volume offers an overview of natural hazards in model regions in Europe, America, and Atlantic islands. Providing new insights on the characterisation, assessment, protection and modelling of geological hazards, water systems, urban areas and coastal zones, it represents a valuable resource for all researchers and practitioners in the fields of Geosciences, Hydrology, Water Resources, Natural Hazards, Environments and Engineering. Main topics include:1. Natural Hazards and Disasters2. Sustainable Water Systems and Climate Change3. Technological Hazards and Engineering Design

Table of Contents

Frontmatter

Hydrological Hazards, Hydrogeomorphology, Groundwater and Disasters

Frontmatter
A Century and Half of Hydrogeomorphological Disasters in Mainland Portugal

The Disaster database lists disastrous floods and landslides registered in mainland Portugal in the period 1865–2015, based on data collected from newspapers. The database includes 1950 hydrogeomorphological disaster cases that caused 1256 deaths, 14,884 evacuated people and 41,977 displaced people. Disastrous floods are clustered in the Lisbon region and the Tagus valley, in the Oporto region and the Douro valley, in the Coimbra region and the Mondego valley and along the Vouga valley. Disastrous landslides are clustered in the Lisbon region and the Douro valley. The period 1935–1969 registered the highest number of disastrous floods and landslides, whereas the last 45 years of the series (1970–2015) do not show any clear temporal trend. However, the 10-year moving average increased at the beginning of the twenty-first century, for floods and landslides, and it is apparent the increasing number of disaster events consisting of several cases, which may result from the increasing occurrence of rainfall extreme events related with climate change. The spatial and temporal trends observed on disastrous floods and landslides reflect the distribution of conditioning factors, the temporal incidence of triggering factors, but also the evolution of the exposure and the vulnerability of people, structures and infrastructures.

José L. Zêzere, Susana S. Pereira, Pedro P. Santos
Hazard Analysis of Hydrometeorological Concatenated Processes in the Colombian Andes

The Colombian Andean region is characterized for its tropical climate and mountainous topography, where common short-duration and high-intensity rainfall events trigger progressive hydrometeorological phenomena that cause rapid concentration of streamflow as flash floods which, as their erosion capacity increases, may remobilize sediments and trigger slides creating debris floods torrents. When rainfall events exceed critical slope stability thresholds, clusters of landslides are triggered, especially on coarse residual soils increasing the sediment concentration and altering the fluid properties into a viscous mass surge of water and sediments. The final deposition of these materials is often located in basin fans that are usually highly populated resulting in huge disasters with high economic losses and fatalities. The most recent reports in Colombia include the events of Salgar in May of 2015 with 104 fatalities, Mocoa in March of 2017 with 400 people died. In this study, a regional hazard assessment methodology is proposed for flash floods, debris floods and channelized debris flows, considering the spatiotemporal variables, basin morphometry, sediment availability and rainfall data using statistical and physical methodologies to assess the susceptibility and hazard at a basin scale, resulting in a key tool for decision-making authorities.

Edier Aristizábal, María Isabel Arango Carmona, Federico José Gómez, Sandra Milena López Castro, Alfredo De Villeros Severiche, Andrés Felipe Riaño Quintanilla
Statistical and Physically-Based Rainfall Triggered Landslides Susceptibility Assessment in the Tagus River Left Margin Basins, Almada County (Portugal)

The Tagus River left margin slopes (Almada County, Portugal) are rainfall triggered landslide-prone areas, which are a serious threat to life and property. To improve knowledge on this topic, a study on landslide susceptibility assessment and mapping was carried out using simple statistical and physically based methods but using improved databases on geology and land use mapping. The statistically-based information value was used to relate an inventory of landslides with the landslides predisposing factors slope angle, lithology, aspect, curvatures, Topographic Wetness Index and land use. The physically-based methods were the SHALSTAB hydrological module coupled with an infinite slope stability model complete solution. The model results were validated against the landslides inventory using ROC curves and provided values of the Area Under the Curve for the Information value (0.90) higher than those of the infinite slope solution (0.80). These differences raise questions on the influence of database and model selection on the reliability of results. The used approaches, which require a careful analysis of the input data, while providing different results, had a satisfactory global performance, being adequate for the landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale and relevant tools for hazard prevention.

Fernando Marques, Sónia Queiroz, Luís Gouveia, Manuel Vasconcelos
Aquifer Contamination by Coastal Floods in the Plain of Costa Da Caparica, Almada (Portugal)

Climate change might lead to sea level rise, changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of wave storms, which will lead to an increase of coastal flooding events. One of the most important long-term effects of coastal floods is saltwater intrusion induced by the vertical infiltration of the salt water behind the overtopped and/or breached coastal barriers. A single overflow event may contaminate the freshwater aquifer for several years until it is remediated naturally under the effect of precipitation and subsequent seaward directed flow. The main objective of this study is to understand the effects of a maritime storm and the induced hinterland inundation on the water quality of a coastal aquifer. The study targets the municipality of Almada (Portugal) which has an extensive coastline, with coastal aquifers with high susceptibility to contamination, namely the unconfined aquifer of the coastal plain of Costa da Caparica. Groundwater flow modelling and mass transport in the aquifer were modelled using the MODFLOW and MT3DMS software. The aquifer contamination by an overflow was modelled considering wave overtopping and flooded area on the coast was estimated from previous works that coupled a wave transformation model (SWAN) with a high-resolution swash model (XBEACH). The extent of the subsurface contamination is a function of the flood extent. Results showed that at an extreme storm event, waves can overtop the coastal dune causing a coastal flood that extends approximately 160 meters inland with a significant increase in chlorine concentration in the aquifer. Recover of the aquifer to previous concentrations was found to take several years.

Carolina A. Marques, Maria Rosário Carvalho, Rui Taborda
Groundwater Monitoring in Regional Discharge Areas Selected as “Hydrosensitive” to Seismic Activity in Central Italy

The aim of this study was to identify potential patterns of hydrogeological and geochemical changes in response to seismic activity, including possible variations of ion concentrations, gas compositions, and isotopic ratios in groundwater. Different monitoring areas in Central Italy have been selected, located in regional discharge areas with abundant groundwater resources. They are located near active normal faults, along the southeast-ward prolongation of the faults that nucleated the L’Aquila 2009 Mw 6.3 event and more recently the seismic sequence of Amatrice–Norcia 2016–2017. The test-site selection has been based on both seismic and hydrogeological criteria. The areas are characterized by low strain rate, long frequencies of earthquake occurrence and high depth of the brittle-ductile transition, which are indicators of potential future earthquakes. In this framework, the hydrogeological setting is considered essential for obtaining reliable results applied to seismic purposes. Springs with long and deep flow paths in the regional aquifers are under monitoring. Indeed, the regional groundwater flows are also clearly influenced by deep fluids contribution. Consequently, the hydrogeological monitoring has been enhanced by continuous active radon and carbon dioxide probes, installed in some of the monitored springs. The results show significant inferences between hydrogeology and seismicity, having different characteristics in relationship with Amatrice–Norcia 2016–2017 seismic sequence and with global minor seismic activity. Based on these preliminary results, the second phase of this study is aimed to reinforce monitoring in selected springs and wells.

Marco Petitta, Domenico Marino Barberio, Maurizio Barbieri, Andrea Billi, Carlo Doglioni, Stefania Passaretti, Stefania Franchini
Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of a Water Supply Network: City of Aveiro Case Study

Critical infrastructures have critical importance on societies as they rely on fundamental development and safety aspects. The inoperability of these networks can cause great damage to strategical state-related activities and may reduce the ability to address the results in the aftermath of an accident or catastrophe. Taking in mind that damages in a water supply network do not depend only on the intensity of the disaster, but also on the vulnerability of each component of the entire system, it is important to ensure the ability of these infrastructures to remain operational during and after any disruptive event to prevent the loss of availability of vital goods and services, but also due to the high level of interdependence between different networks, that can lead to a propagation of effects, increasing the level of losses. The seismic vulnerability assessment of water systems is one of the most effective mitigation strategies that will allow to estimate the serviceability of the system and evaluate the estimated direct losses in terms of replacement cost. This paper aims to revise the main seismic risk assessment methodologies available for seismic vulnerability assessment of water networks and based on the selected methodology to present an application to a real network.

Hélder Pires, Hugo Rodrigues, Armando Silva Afonso, Carla Pimentel-Rodrigues, Fernanda Rodrigues
Natural Hazards Coming from Trace Elements Natural Enrichment: The Bevera Valley Basin (Northern Italy) Case History

Trace elements are natural constituents of soils and their concentration varies depending on parental materials. In order to investigate the inorganic pollution conditions of soil in Bevera Valley Basin, Northern Italy, two selected samples were taken from Rainer Quarry and Femar Quarry were analyzed. High levels of Arsenic (As) have been reported in groundwater. Exposure to As in the environment is hazardous to biota, this study aims to investigate mechanism involved in natural enrichment of As, considering interactions of underground waters with soils. The concentrations of trace elements were determined by using ICP-MS. Laboratory analysis shows a greater enrichment in copper for both quarries, maybe due to the geological nature of the soils. Then the potential pollution risks of trace elements in the soil were evaluated by method of geoaccumulation index (Igeo) and enrichment factor analysis (EF). Results show that the two sites are not contaminated, and the trace elements, with reference to Arsenic, are not linked to anthropic contributions.

Giuseppe Sappa, Maurizio Barbieri, Francesca Andrei
Radon Gas and Groundwater: Study of Risks in Water Galleries in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain)

Water galleries are the main system for capturing groundwaters on the western islands of the Canarian archipelago (Spain). This research focuses on taking measurements of radon, a natural radioactive gas present in the galleries, and may cause health problems for workers in volcanic territories, such as in the Canary Islands. The aim of this research is to determine the values of radon gas, as a natural risk, in the water galleries in the exploitation of water resources, by means of officially approved measuring devices and the subsequent scientific analysis of the results showing how they are related to health at work.

Juan C. Santamarta, Luis E. Hernández-Gutiérrez, Jesica Rodríguez-Martín, Rafael J. Lario-Bascones, Ángel Morales-González-Moro

Hazard Assessment, Spatial Planning and Climate Change

Frontmatter
Hydrological Risks in Natural Hazards Focused on the Role of the Water: Studies on Landslides

Landslides are one of the most important natural hazards on Earth. Landslide mechanisms related to hydrology are analyzed with a focus on the major risks, and formal risk assessment methodologies are presented. The management of accidents in slopes is discussed, with particular emphasis on Hong Kong and to Rio de Janeiro. Specific aspects of slope instability in the state of Rio de Janeiro are discussed, with a focus on cases that occurred in the mountainous region of the State. The megadisaster occurred in 2011, with high number of deaths and significant economic losses, is studied with particular incidence in individual landslides. A description of occurrence of large landslides in China is also presented. The modeling of catastrophic flow-type slide at Shenzhen landfill induced by intense rainfall is introduced and referred to large number of landslides happened during the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 is mentioned.

Luis Sousa, Eurípedes Vargas Jr., Rita Sousa, Helder I. Chaminé
The Reliability of a Heuristic-Holistic Methodology for the Definition of Susceptibility to Destabilization—The Potential Sources of Uncertainty

The results of the approaches to assess the susceptibility to landslides are dependent on the type of approach process, the quantity and quality/resolution of data, and the experience of experts. In all processes, uncertainty is a certainty. This paper aims to identify and list the potential sources of uncertainty and to define the stages in which uncertainties can be inserted in this particular methodology. Using the Digital Elevation Model of the terrain and the geotechnical data, it is intended to establish the hazard related to the mass movements in the area and its spatial distribution. For that purpose, a heuristic-holistic approach is defined. That approach is done by phases. The first phase includes surveying and collecting existing data. The second phase corresponds to the organization, classification, and systematization of all information, using the Geographic Information System. Simultaneously is done a Multi-Criteria Analysis treatment of the data and there are selected the physical factors that more contribute to the instability. In a third phase, it is represented cartographically the variability of the selected factors in the area. The integration of all parameters, cartographically represented, allows to obtain maps of susceptibility. The reliability of the final susceptibility maps is dependent on the uncertainty, especially in a scenario of climate change.

Celeste Jorge
Preliminary Analysis of Slope Instability Processes Triggered in the Guilherme Creek Watershed (Nordeste Municipality, S. Miguel Island, Azores)

The Nordeste Volcanic Complex is located in the NE sector of S. Miguel Island (Azores) and it is composed of geological formations with about 4 million years old, extremely weathered. This fact, allied to the steep slopes on the area, promotes the occurrence of slope instability phenomena. In particular, the Guilherme Creek watershed has a high recurrence of this type of geological hazard, mainly triggered by precipitation, which promotes a high density of landslides in the area. Considering as main objective the landslide susceptibility analysis in the Guilherme Creek watershed, using statistical/probabilistic methods, it is ongoing an inventory process of these phenomena in a GIS, based on the aerial photography interpretation and fieldwork. Currently, the inventory is concluded based on aerial photography from 1982 and orthorectified aerial photography from 1995 to 2005. In order to validate and update the landslide inventory produced in the office, fieldwork has been carried out using, besides more traditional techniques, a drone (DJI Phatom 4 PRO). This tool has allowed studying steep slopes, which would otherwise be impossible to access in an area with a high forest density and very steep slopes. Until now, 517 landslides have been identified in the study area, mainly belonging to slides and falls typologies.

Paulo Maciel Amaral, Rui Marques, Isabel Duarte, António Pinho
The Use of Total Station for Monitoring Mass Movements: Application to Fajãzinha Landslide at Flores Island (Azores Archipelago)

The present work has as study area a deep-seated landslide, which affects a significant part of Fajãzinha parish, on Flores Island (Azores Archipelago). This study is part of a monitoring project composed of hydrological, geotechnical and topographic components used to monitor a large slow movement with a depth surface of rupture triggered by rainfall. With the main goal of detecting small soil movements that precede larger instabilities, a geodetic monitoring programme was established using an automatic total station. In total 34 benchmarks were reobserved by an automatic total station Leica TM50 of 0.5”, with accuracy for distances of 0.6 + 1 mm. In this work, the total station data surveys are presented as well as the discussion of 27 campaigns carried out during the time span of 1 year (January 2018 until February 2019) to follow the evolution of the surface displacements. The maximum displacement rate observed in the area was about −57, 16 and −27 mm to E, N and Z component, respectively. The orientation of the displacement rate is compatible with the landslide that occurs in the area. Nowadays, this slope instability is confirmed by the slope geometry, ground cracks, and ground movement. This slow movement has caused, over the years, a number of disturbances to the inhabitants, due to damage to houses and structures, given the strong exposition of these vulnerable elements located on the body of the landslide.

Paulo Amaral, Ana Malheiro, Filipe Marques, Letícia Moniz, Sílvia Furtado, Nuno Loura
Subsidence Hazard in Limestone Cavities: The Case of “Grutas da Moeda” (Fátima, Central Portugal)

“Grutas da Moeda” are natural touristic caves, located in the plateau of São Mamede, near Sanctuary of Fátima, in Portugal. They have been opened to the public since 1974, and receives about 75,000 visitors per year, from 76 nationalities. They are located in the “Maciço Calcário Estremenho”, composed by limestone deposits of the Middle Jurassic (Bathonian), corresponding to the Serra de Aire formation. The geological risk assessment is fundamental to guarantee the safety of its visitors and staff; therefore, it is intended to develop geotechnical monitoring methodologies in order to collect data to understand the risks that may be associated with this natural cavity and to identify critical areas of collapse. There are four main alignments (faults/joints), which assume parallelism with the development of the caves. The trend of the layers in the cave is approximately N30ºE; 17ºSE. In the year 2015, a geophysical study was carried out, using the 3D electrical resistivity method and, for one of the areas in particular, the georadar method. The georadar method allowed to map the anomalies corresponding to empty spaces that have been identified with the 3D electrical resistivity technique. This paper presents the results obtained, as well as proposals for geotechnical measures to mitigate the risk of collapse subsidence.

Isabel Duarte, António Pinho, Luís Lopes, Ricardo Sábio, Micael Jorge
Geotechnical Hazards in Rocky Slopes (Northern Portugal): Focused on Methodology

Interdisciplinary studies of rocky slopes stability have been performed on Northern Portugal, that allowed to establish a design methodology. This approach carries together the use of more traditional techniques, with the application of more recent technologies, such as unmanned aerial vehicles. This work presents a set of procedures that have been applied successfully in several case studies, describing the different stages, with an emphasis on the production of a ground three-dimensional model. This model is generated from photographs obtained with successive drone flights, with overlapping. It is the support for the development of subsequent stages, especially for the characterisation of the trajectories of rockfalls and modelling, the development of susceptibility mapping and of rock slope hazard. In this context, the Natural Slope Quality Index (N-SQI ), an adaptation of the Slope Quality Index (SQI), orientated to natural slopes, is presented. The Block Gravity Number (BGN), created in order to hierarchise rock blocks, selecting them for modelling, is also proposed.

José Filinto Trigo, Carlos Pacheco, João Fernandes, Pedro Ferraz, Jorge Sousa, Rui Machado, Sara Duarte, Ana Mendes, Liliana Freitas, José Teixeira, Luís Ramos, Maria José Afonso, Helder I. Chaminé
The Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in the Monitoring of Forest Fires

In this paper, a general description of the use of drones in forest management is made, addressing their various potentialities in three distinct phases: (i) prevention of forest fires; (ii) during forest fires, with particular emphasis on residential areas in rural environments and escape routes; and (iii) after the occurrence of fires. An approach will also be taken on the use of drones to combat fire and support 3D modeling of the territory. In fact, under the motto “early detection, early rescue,” the versatility of this technique allows its use both for cleaning tasks on land, roads, and high and medium voltage lines, as well as collecting data on the evolution of fire or early detection of new fires, being also useful in determining the burning area.

António Correia, Luis Araújo Santos, Paulo Carvalho, José Martinho
Slopes Instability Phenomena and Mitigation Techniques After October 2017 Wildfires in Serra Da Estrela Region

The probability of occurrence of slopes instability phenomena increases after wildfires, being usually triggered by periods of heavy precipitation or earthquakes. In order to minimize incidents or mitigate their effects, which can be delayed over time, various techniques of soil conservation and/or water infiltration may be used. This communication presents the geotechnical incidents registered in the region of Serra da Estrela (Portugal), as well as the slopes stabilization techniques employed after the October 2017 wildfires.

Luis Araújo Santos, António Correia, Paulo Coelho
Impact of Sea-Level Rise in the Azores Islands. Prospective Analysis Based on Current Projections

Scientific projections point to an increase n the average sea-level rise from 0.25 to 2 m up to the end of this century. This increase will result in the disappearance of many beaches, low coastal areas and back retreat. Estimates indicate that more than 50 million people will be affected in the Pacific and Indian areas. The reduction of the available area and the greater pressure on natural resources, increased by the remoteness of other terrestrial areas can manifest the vulnerability in the Azores, which may affect islands or localities where the conditions of survival can become very complex. The most affected island will be São Miguel with 57.6% of the population at risk, but the analysis of the projections and impacts that may occur becomes important to define local action strategies. This analysis should be multidisciplinary, including the natural sciences and engineering, but also the social sciences, to help evaluate and dismiss incorrect perceptions of common sense.

Marta Aguiar, Margarida Santos, Ana Oliveira, Luísa Magalhães, Fernando Pereira
The Importance of Land Cover Planning on Climatic Events: Evaluation of Peatlands’ Buffer Impact on Terceira and Flores Islands (Azores, Portugal)

The objective is to estimate the actual and potential hydrological services provided by the peatlands of Flores and Terceira islands. Peatlands were identified through the distribution of Sphagnum, obtained by a spectral signature from satellite image analysis. The results show an actual distribution of natural peatlands of 2766 and 2414 ha, for Terceira and Flores, respectively, which are, even so, quite lower than the potential area estimated as 8035 and 5231 ha, correspondingly. Nowadays, these peatlands have the ability to retain 72,438,317 m3 of water. Theoretically, if all peatlands were in the natural state, this capacity would increase to 300% of the retained water. The amelioration of naturalness would increase these ecosystems’ ability to act better as a buffer in extreme climate events.

Dinis Pereira, Cândida Mendes, Eduardo Dias
Ponta Delgada, a Volcanic City. Main Natural Risks and Reasons that Dictate the Coexistence of Populations

S. Miguel is constituted by several volcanic structures, considering this island, in spite of its current quiescence, one of the most eruptive poles of the Atlantic. This is the fundamental characteristic from which other hazards, such as CO2 emission from fumaroles, volcanic and tectonic earthquakes as well as mass movements associated with both episodes of intense precipitation and seismic activity, were developed. An exploratory study was developed to evaluate the coexistence of populations with the stated risks. Using a methodology of measurement, the application of a survey to a population sample, it is verified the low perception of the volcanic risk, both by the populations and by the institutions and authorities in the communication of the risk. However, it is noted that the population surveyed seeming to underestimate this threat, as if the memory of previous eruptions constituted only a historical heritage and, at the same time, they have a high/average perception of the other risks associated, namely seismic and hydrological risks (this includes the consequences of intense precipitation, that is, mass movements). Also, it was noted that this survey relies differently on the authorities and institutions responsible for risk communication and risk management.

Maria Anderson, Nelson Mileu
Build Back Better: Rebuild to Preserve

Heritage values are socially, economically or culturally directly linked to populations and influence the static or dynamic way in which they perceive, experience and enjoy their territory. Knowledge of the risks and measures that contribute to the preservation of its livelihoods and its social and cultural environment, regardless of whether or not to change the way of organizing space and construction forms, will be important to minimize impacts and avoid social dysfunction. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 points out for cases of damages, it will be better to rebuild, seeking to maintain communities by making use of their adaptability reinforcing their resilience. According to the Valletta Principles for the Safeguarding and Management of Historic Cities, Cities and Urban Areas (2011), also known as “The Valletta Principles”, adopted by the 17th ICOMOS General Assembly on November 28, 2011 in Valletta, Malta, interventions must ensure respect for tangible and intangible heritage values, as well as the quality of life of the inhabitants. These are broad concepts, but applied to the analysis and definition of disaster risk prevention and mitigation measures, may contribute to keeping communities increasingly reflexive and resilient.

Fernando Pereira, Ana Oliveira, Margarida Santos, Marta Aguiar, Luísa Magalhães
Vulnerability to Mass Movements’ Hazards. Contribution of Sociology to Increasing Community Resilience

There is yet an incorrect perception of common sense about environmental issues, mainly about the increase and rapid environmental degradation due to the misuse of natural resources. The pressure on the territory, changing the form by the intensification of the human occupation and the overexploitation of the resources can generate local phenomena that, combined with events of local or regional scale, can cause significant losses in the communities and their livelihoods. Mass movements are short return periods hazards, highly localized, mainly weather-related, but also triggered by seismic or volcanic activity or even technological accidents. The generalization or axiomatization of the idea that innovation is synonymous with greater efficiency, greater security, and greater sustainability, can lead to the technocracy of the solutions, devaluing and fragmenting the cultural and social organization of communities. Knowledge of human capacity for adaptation and analysis of the impacts of climate change forecasts on the social structure of communities, especially those that will first experience the effects, is important for the adoption of measures that contribute to its preservation. Sociology, in one of its aspects, seeks to recover and reveal the materiality of the structure and social life of communities.

Margarida Santos, Marta Aguiar, Ana Oliveira, Luísa Magalhães, Fernando Pereira

Natural Hazards, Hydrodynamics and Engineering Design

Frontmatter
Flooding Risk Assessment in the Middle Tiber River Valley with Remediation Proposal

Flooding is a natural process that can have significant impacts on people, economy and environment, in the area it occurs. It is influenced by climate changes, river dynamics, urban drainage, and land use modifications. Climatic variability and climate change are shifting rainfall patterns, making heavy rain less frequent worldwide, but very often more intense. The aim of this work is to contribute to flood risk management in the Middle Tiber River Valley (MTV), in Latium Region (Italy), presenting a GIS-supported methodology to identify risk-control measures to prevent, defense, mitigate, and recover from river flooding. This study deals with the results of the hydraulic modeling of the Tiber River section, from Orte and Castel Giubileo, for flooding risk estimation and with the aim of design a flooding risk reduction, using HEC-GeoRAS and HEC-RAS hydraulic modeling tools, supported by a Geographic Information System (ArcGIS). With the aim to encourage the use of mitigation measures, in this paper, a series of structural defense strategies have been identified as reducing flooding risk to residents and businesses in the study area.

Giuseppe Sappa, Flavia Ferranti
The 2017 Flash Flood of Livorno (Italy): Lessons Learnt from an Exceptional Hydrologic Event

Between 9th and 10th September 2017 a catastrophic, very intense rainfall event struck the city of Livorno in the Tyrrenian coast of central Italy causing eight fatalities. The event was characterized by very high rainfall intensity (>100 mm h−1) that persisted on a small portion of territory causing huge rainfall accumulations (>260 mm). The aim of the work is to reconstruct the flash flood to understand how much the event was exceptional under the hydrologic and impact aspects. The rainfall event and the inundation have been reconstructed by analyzing the rain gauge data of the regional hydrologic service. The discharges have been simulated using MOBIDIC, a continuous distributed hydrologic model already operational in the region for hydrologic predictions. The exposure and damages to buildings have been analyzed and compared with the official claims. The results show that the flash flood was exceptional since most of the river reaches in the area have overcome of about 50% the 200 years return period discharge, used to design the flood defenses according to the national regulations.

Chiara Arrighi, Fabio Castelli
Evaluating and Mapping the Hazard and Risk of Vehicle Instability Within a Flood Prone Area

River overflows can significantly affect vehicles that are circulating or parked in flood-prone areas. Vehicle dragging has not only an economic impact but also the potential loss of human lives. Due to this, proper flood management requires the identification of risk and safe areas for vehicles during these types of events. Loss of stability of a vehicle can be generated by the hydrodynamic mechanisms of floating, sliding and/or toppling. The case study was Rambla del Poyo, which can flood parts of the metropolitan area of Valencia (Spain). To establish the hazard, we used maximum velocity and depth inundation maps for the return periods of 50, 100 and 500 years and different types of vehicles. For the estimation of the final risk, it was needed the car density in the area and the histogram of the types of vehicles. Using the selected stability model, it was possible to map the hazard for each type of vehicle individually and the risk for all vehicles that circulate or are parked in the case study. Especially interesting for evacuation plans was the mapping of the safe areas. Also it was found that vehicles would lose their stability mostly by flotation.

Ricardo A. Bocanegra, Félix Francés
Definition of Flood-Prone Areas: A Comparison between HEC-RAS and Iber Software Results

The availability of hydraulic modelling software allowing dynamic analysis of hydraulic variables behaviour, such as the water depth and flow velocity, is important for the assessment and management of flood-prone areas and, consequently, to reduce the associated risks. This study presents a comparison between the modelling results of a 1D (one-dimensional) and 2D (two-dimensional) hydraulic models—HEC-RAS and Iber software—in the definition of flood-prone areas for a sector of the Leça River (Northern Portugal). The main comparison refers to the maximum extent of the flood and the water depth, obtained from the mathematical simulation with these two free softwares, for return periods of 10, 50 and 100-years. Despite the two softwares consider different hydraulic approaches, it was recorded small differences in the extent of the flooded area and in the maximum water column height.

Márcia Martins, Pedro Gonçalves, Alberto Gomes, José Teixeira
Azores Assessment and Management of Flood Risks

The European Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks, which entered into force in November 2007, establishes the regulatory framework for the assessment and management of flood risks within the European Union (EU), in order to reduce the negative consequences of flood for human life and health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity, as well as to take adequate measures to identify flood hazard and flood risk areas. Among other assets, this Directive requires EU Member States to first carry out a preliminary assessment based on the following instruments: flood hazard assessment maps; risk maps and flood risk management plans (FRMP). Portugal transposed this directive in 2010, marking a new attitude towards flood risk management by the integration of figure flood risk management plans (FRMP), in its water management and planning policies, structured in 6-year cycles. The first flood risk management plan for the Azores RBMP was concluded at the end of 2015, and further approved as a policy instrument by Regional Legislative Decree no. 20/2016/A of October 10. The plan aims an integrated river basin risk management in order to reduce the consequences associated with floods in sensitive areas covered by Territorial Management Instruments and to decrease susceptibility risks associated with local and regional particularities. The first cycle resulted in the selection of five critical zones characterized by event reoccurrence, loss of human and number of people affected, on the islands of São Miguel, Terceira, and Flores. The next planning cycle (2022–2027) will reevaluate the current critical high-risk flood areas, and identify new critical areas for both river basins and coastal areas at risk of flooding.

Dina Pacheco, Sandra Mendes, Raquel Cymbron
Incorporating Apparent Shear Stress in the Roughness to Improve the Discharge Prediction in Overbank Flows

During flood events, the overbank flow is rather common in alluvial valleys. The so-called compound channel flow is characterized by the interaction between the deeper and faster main channel flow and the shallower and slower floodplain flow. The flow structure becomes much more complex than in a single channel. In the shear layer formed in a region near the interface, a lateral momentum exchange between the main channel and the floodplains and the secondary currents due to the non-isotropic turbulence lead to a 3D flow structure. Despite the availability of 2D and 3D flow models that may solve this question, 1D methods are often preferred due to the less amount of parameters required and to the shorter processing time. In the present paper, a new method to compute flow discharge in compound channels is proposed namely by incorporating the apparent shear stress in the Manning roughness. The method is calibrated and validated taking into account stage–discharge relationships in several compound channel facilities.

João Nuno Fernandes
Dispersive Effects During Long Wave Run-up on a Plane Beach

Dispersive effects during long wave run-up on a plane beach are studied. We take advantage of experimental data collection of different wave types (single pulses, sinusoidal waves, bi-harmonic waves, and frequency modulated wave trains) and simulate their run-up using two models: (i) nondispersive nonlinear shallow water theory and (ii) dispersive Boussinesq-type model based on the modified Peregrine system. It is shown, that for long positive pulses, dispersive effects are not so important and nonlinear shallow water theory can be used. However, for periodic sinusoidal and bi-harmonic pulses of the same period, the dispersive effects result in significant wave transformation during its propagation but do not have a strong impact on its maximal run-up height. Overall, for maximum wave run-up height, we could not find a preference of dispersive model against the nondispersive one, and, therefore, suggest using nonlinear shallow water model for longwave run-up height estimation.

Ahmed Abdalazeez, Ira Didenkulova, Denys Dutykh
Analysis of Nonlinear Wave Parameters on Ofir Sandy Beach (NW Portugal)

The characterization of wave transformation processes in the nearshore is of paramount importance when it comes to assessing storm and flooding impacts, sediment transportation and deposition, harbors safety or design of coastal protective structures. This study analyzes nonlinear wave parameters on Ofir sandy beach. This beach is located along the northwest Portuguese coast which is a highly energetic coast exposed to waves generated far away in the Atlantic Ocean. Despite the existence of rocky outcrops in the nearshore and intertidal zones at the study site, reducing the wave energy that reaches the beach, the study site exhibits pronounced erosive processes. Field observations of six near-bottom pressure records collected at the intertidal zone help to characterize the evolution of wave nonlinearities which are directly associated with sediment transport mechanisms. Data results show that there is an interrelation between the characteristics of the waves and the local morphology. It is also possible to ascertain, more clearly, the level of asymmetry present in the waves propagated at different depths, contributing to a better understanding of the local morpho-hydrodynamics.

Tiago Abreu, Paulo A. Silva, Paulo Baptista, Joaquim Pais-Barbosa, Sandra Fernández-Fernández, Caroline Ferreira, João Matos
Morphodynamics of an Embayed Beach in Majorca Island

Cala Millor Beach is located in Mallorca Island and is a small sandy beach, embedded in a rocky bay. It remained generally in a state of equilibrium but, in the 60s, the urbanistic area began to develop towards the beach, interfering with the natural sediment transport of the bay. The seabed is covered by native vegetation known as Posidonia Oceanica, playing an important role in the morphodynamic system. This vegetation is responsible for the lamination of the waves through energy dissipation. To characterize the local dynamics, the SMC program (System of Coastal Modelling) is employed to study sediment transport trends and to evaluate morphological evolutions in the short term. The results seem to support the observed problem, resulting from an imbalance of sediment transport due to the drift from north to south. Moreover, the results support the idea that the morphological variations can be significantly attenuated in the presence of Posidonia Oceanica. This is of great importance for coastal management since the influence of the vegetation can be assessed, improving our knowledge on the coastal morphology and enabling to identify ways to protect the beach.

Tiago Abreu, Benjamín Parreño-Mas, José Pinto-Faria
Dike Vulnerability Due to Sea-Level Rise (Western Canada)

This paper discusses the vulnerability of sea dikes in Western Canada, including examples of existing dike designs in British Columbia (BC). A dike means an embankment, revetment wall, or other coastal structures that protect upland areas and prevent the flooding of the land. There are more than 200 regulated dikes in BC, with a total length of over 1100 km, protecting 160,000 ha of valuable land. The BC Ministry of Environment guidelines for the design of sea dikes to protect low lying lands are used to define the upgraded sea dikes flood construction levels (FCL) that are now necessary due to climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Thus, dike crest elevations will need to rise so that they continue to exert their protective function in the future, towards a lifetime up to the year 2100 and beyond. The vulnerability of sea dikes is evaluated using an example dike for the application of the PIEVC (Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee) Protocol method, which is used to identify the sea dike components that are especially vulnerable to climate- and weather-related impacts and to evaluate the risks to these infrastructure elements, as well as to propose typical mitigation measures.

Otavio Sayão, Guy Félio
Iber+ : A New Code to Analyze Dam-Break Floods

Dams provide a wide range of benefits but they have risks associated with their potential fails, e.g. dam-breaks. Floods derived by this type of fails usually have dramatic consequences in terms of economic losses and casualties. Therefore, the ability to predict the extent and the velocity of propagation of this type of floods is crucial. In this work the numerical code Iber+ is used to reproduce the flood derived by the break of the Malpasset dam. The accuracy of the numerical results along with the high computational efficiency of the code makes Iber+ a suitable tool for forecasting of flood events even in early-warning systems.

José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Rivers’ Confluence Morphological Modeling Using SRH-2D

Efficient river morphology modeling is needed for hydraulics engineers. Several one-dimensional software supporting sediment transports are available and widely used, regardless of their limitations. However, two-dimensional sediment transport is still not widely used in practice for several reasons. Besides the high simulation times, the efficiency of such tools is not widely accepted. This paper tests the ability of the US Bureau of Reclamation two-dimensional sediment transport software, SRH-2D, to simulate the morphological evolution of two rivers’ confluence. Even if no quantitative data are available to judge the results’ quality, SRH-2D is able to capture the trend of the observed morphological evolution for this complex case.

Eman AlQasimi, Tew-Fik Mahdi
Evaluation of the Hydraulic Design of Culverts Under a Climate Change Scenario: A Preliminary Analysis of Road Case Studies in Southern Portugal

The present work aims to contribute to the study of current capacity of culverts associated to transportation infrastructures, under a climate change scenario. The records of annual maximum daily precipitation were analysed for two meteorological stations, allowing to estimate such precipitation for both stations, namely through the adjustment of a statistical law for a return period of 100 years. Design precipitations were then determined through a methodology that makes use of annual maximum daily precipitation estimation. Through hydrological and hydraulic methodologies frequently used in hydraulic and drainage projects in Portugal, eight culverts were evaluated. The hydraulic analysis led to the conclusion that three out of eight culverts had an insufficient flow rate capacity. According to those results, it is not possible to conclude that climate change is directly influencing the adequacy of such culverts, in terms of flow rate capacity. Nevertheless, it seems reasonable to expect that a considerable number of culverts may no longer be suitable in terms of flow rate capacity, resulting in a potential high number of critical points in the Portuguese road network, jeopardizing the safety of the transportation infrastructure and its users.

Gonçalo Bastos, Jorge Matos, José Neves

Around of Pico Island Geology: Meeting Natural Hazards

Frontmatter
Geology and Volcanology of Pico Island (Azores, Portugal): A Field Guide

Pico is the biggest island of the Central Group, the second-largest (445 km2) of the Azores archipelago and exhibits the highest point of Portugal (2351 m), the Pico Mountain volcano, which is the 3rd highest volcano of the North Atlantic Ocean. In relation to the surrounding sea-floor Pico Mountain is a 3500 m high polygenetic volcano, characterized by dominant effusive basaltic volcanism episodes of Hawaiian-type eruptions and extensive pahoehoe lava fields. The main geological features of the island are related to the fact that Pico is the youngest island of the archipelago (about 300,000 years old) and its volcanism is almost exclusively of basaltic nature, evident either in the Pico Mountain volcano, the Topo shield volcano or in the volcanic ridge of the Planalto da Achada. This volcanic ridge (e.g., São Roque-Piedade Volcanic Complex) has a length of 30 km and is composed of about 190 scoriae and spatter cones and eruptive fissures. This work outlines the field trip on the Pico Island volcanoes and eruptive history, with emphasis on its main morphotectonics features and geological hazards.

João Carlos Nunes
Metadata
Title
Advances in Natural Hazards and Hydrological Risks: Meeting the Challenge
Editors
Dr. Francisco Fernandes
Dr. Ana Malheiro
Prof. Helder I. Chaminé
Copyright Year
2020
Electronic ISBN
978-3-030-34397-2
Print ISBN
978-3-030-34396-5
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-34397-2