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Published in:
2009 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
An Analysis on Financial Crisis Prediction of Listed Companies in China’s Manufacturing Industries Based on Logistic Regression and Bayes
Authors : Wenhua Yu, Hao Gong, Yuanfu Li, Yan Yue
Published in: Cutting-Edge Research Topics on Multiple Criteria Decision Making
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
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In this paper, some listed companies in China’s manufacturing industries are taken as the research objects, and the ST companies’ financial indicators in 1~5 years before the occurrence of their financial crisis are collected. On the other hand, non-ST companies are selected as samples and then empirically analyzed by Logistic regression; the Logistic regression model is established to forecast financial crisis, and the prediction capacity of forecasting financial crisis in 1
$\thicksim$
5 years ahead of their occurrence are summed up. According to the established model, by using Bayes’ Theorem, the financial crisis probabilities of listed companies in China’s manufacturing industries in the next years are amended.