An Integrated Systems Approach to Long-Term Energy Security Planning

While heavy attempts have been made to evaluate energy systems, few can gain wide acceptance or be applied to various jurisdictions considering their lack of comprehensiveness and inability to handle uncertainties. This paper first proposes a MCDM approach using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) to assess security status in energy system. An Energy Security Index I_ES making comprehensive yet clear reference to the current scope of energy security is introduced as the indicator. Next, the paper proposes an integrated framework to develop long-term security improvement plan in energy system. The framework is constructed with a holistic planning cycle to evaluate energy security policies’ effectiveness, project estimated I_ES with optimized energy portfolio, and verify the results generated. The framework is established with integrated analytical process incorporating FAHP, which better accommodates the complexities and uncertainties throughout planning. Meanwhile, the complete planning cycle enhances the tool validity. This framework would be useful in helping policy makers obtain a helicopter view of the security level of their energy system, and identify the general improvement direction. An application of the proposed framework to Singapore context shows “Reduce and Replace” strategy should be implemented and 77 % improvement in I_ES is expected by 2030 comparing to business-as-usual scenario.