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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

11. Assessing the Impact of Political Disruptions on Crude Oil Trade

Authors : Kenneth White, Brian Efird, Sadeem Alhosain

Published in: Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Publisher: Springer Singapore

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Abstract

Provides an empirical evaluation of energy trade flows, focusing on crude oil trade among the top 20 crude oil exporters and top 20 crude oil importers. We assess the potential impact of cross-national political disruptions (bilateral and regional) on energy trade between the six producing countries in the GCC and four consuming economies in Northeast Asia. We econometrically measure the impact of political disruptions on total crude oil trade for economies in these two regions to systematically address the question of how much political shocks threaten energy security and the flow of trade. We pay particular attention to how domestic, regional, and international political phenomena and irregular political crises might disrupt energy trade, and under what conditions such disruption might or might not occur.

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previous chapter Evaluating the Impact of Oil Exports from GCC Countries on China’s Oil Security
next chapter Commercial Stockpiling: An Alternative for Joint Stockpiling of Oil in North East Asia
Footnotes
1
Such an analysis is not feasible under a case study framework. More generally, case studies are compliments (not replacements) to econometric studies. Each approach has its strengths. This paper relies on an econometric investigation because such an analysis is less subjective and more parsimonious than a case study. Given the relative abundance of anecdotes regarding the geopolitics of energy security, we felt a systematic approach was called for.
 
2
MID data were obtained from the Correlates of War (COW) Project (2015). The latest version (4.1) of the MID is described in Palmer et al. (2015), which is an update of Jones et al. (1996).
 
3
MEPV data were obtained from the Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) Data Page (2015). The data are a regularly updated version of the original data described in Marshall (1999) and Marshall (2002).
 
4
UCDP data refers to the UCDP Monadic Conflict Onset and Incidence Dataset, with the latest version (4.14) described by Pettersson and Wallensteen (2015). This updates earlier data developed by Gleditsch et al. (2002). Data were downloaded from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (2015).
 
5
We tested a third measure of domestic conflict from the Political Instability Task Force (PITF). Of the three types of conflict (revolutionary war, ethnic war, adverse regime change), only ethnic war had a significant relationship to oil exports, and it was negative. We did not report these findings because we felt the data in the PITF table was too sparse within our sample for generalization.
 
6
For the sake of brevity, we do not include the full reporting of these results here, but the authors will gladly share the results upon request.
 
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Metadata
Title
Assessing the Impact of Political Disruptions on Crude Oil Trade
Authors
Kenneth White
Brian Efird
Sadeem Alhosain
Copyright Year
2016
Publisher
Springer Singapore
Book
Energy Relations and Policy Making in Asia

Print ISBN: 978-981-10-1093-4

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-10-1094-1

Copyright Year: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-1094-1_11