Asymmetric response of cpi inflation to exchange rates in oil-dependent developing economy: the case of Nigeria

The question of whether domestic prices respond to either official exchange rate or parallel exchange rate movement is a key research issue especially in an oil-dependent developing country like Nigeria with rising fiscal pressures and a vibrant parallel market. Also from the monetary authority perspective, it is imperative to know if prices respond symmetrically and/or asymmetrically to both official and parallel exchange rates movement. Consequently, this study examines the response of domestic prices to both official and parallel exchange rates movement for the period 1995Q1-2019Q1 with the Shin et al. (In: Horrace WC, Sickles RC (eds) Festchrift in Honour of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, pp 281–414, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. The results provide support for prices responding symmetrically to parallel rates than the official rate especially in periods of large exchange rate premium. However, prices only respond differently to depreciation and appreciation of the official exchange rate in Nigeria. Consequently, the government needs to ensure some levels of fiscal austerity and possible exchange rate unification when the premium gets large if the intention is to insulate domestic prices from fiscal pressures. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to take cognizance of possible asymmetric relationship in their decisions to ensure price stability so as not to distort monetary policy effect.