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The Review of International Organizations

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14-10-2022

At what cost? Power, payments, and public support of international organizations

Authors: Ryan Brutger, Richard Clark

Published in: The Review of International Organizations | Issue 3/2023

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Abstract

The drivers of public support for international organizations (IOs) are multifaceted and contested. Focusing on the US, we argue that citizens weigh elite cues about the financial burden associated with funding IOs and the influence over IOs that such funding yields. Moreover, we identify political ideology as a powerful moderator – theorizing that conservatives should respond more positively to cues about US influence and more negatively to cues about financial costs than liberals. We find support for the core theory, but also counterintuitively find that the negative effect of the cost treatment manifests primarily amongst liberals as opposed to conservatives. A second, pre-registered experiment reveals that conservatives support increasing funding to IOs to secure US influence, and may even support increasing taxes to do so, especially when cued by a co-partisan. By contrast, liberals who learn that funding provides influence prefer to cut funding to IOs, even when cued by a co-partisan.

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Morse (2014), Greenhill (2020), Keohane (1984), Abbott and Snidal (1998), Hurd (1999), Martens et al. (2002), Barrett (2005), Milner (2006), Carnegie (2015), and Carnegie and Carson (2019).

As quoted in (Milner & Dustin, 2012, 3).

Morse (2014).

Urpelainen and Van de Graaf (2015) and Pratt (2021).

Morse (2014) and Clark (2022).

von Borzyskowski and Vabulas (2019) and Carnegie et al. (2021).

Guisinger and Saunders (2017), Voeten (2020), and Kaya et al. (2020).

Guisinger and Saunders (2017) suggest that elite cues can drive a convergence between elite and mass opinion, while (Dellmuth et al., 2021) argue that individual-level differences between elites and the masses impede such a convergence.

See Rho (2017) on trade liberalization; Heinrich et al. (2016) and Hurst et al. (2017) on foreign aid.

See Buchanan and Keohane (2006), Dellmuth and Scholte (2018), and Dellmuth and Tallberg (2019) on legitimacy beliefs; Schlipphak et al. (2022) on IO salience; Kiratli (2021) on economic expectations and support for IOs.

Zaller (1992) and Lenz (2012).

Data from the Chicago Council’s Worldviews 2002 Report and Global Views poll from 2008 suggest these figures are broadly consistent with past decades.

See von Borzyskowski and Vabulas (2019) and Carnegie et al. (2021). Though also see (Walter, 2021), who argues there is little evidence of a globalization backlash in opinion polls.

Andersen et al. (2006).

Clark and Dolan (2021).

Kilby (2009) and Kersting and Kilby (2016).

See Johnston (2008) and Ikenberry (2011).

Jones (2018). Brutger and Morse (2015) also show that the US receives less onerous compliance burdens through the WTO.

For related work on how ideology and elite rhetoric shape public attitudes toward the international order, see Lee and Prather (2020).

Shendruk, Amandam, Laura Hillard, and Diana Roy. “Funding the United Nations.” Council on Foreign Relations. June 8, 2020. http://on.cfr.org/3odpzxs.

Browne, Ryan. “Trump Administration to Cut its Financial Contribution to NATO.” CNN. November 28, 2019. https://cnn.it/3cuIKx4. Also see “Brazil’s President Says NGO Funding will be Tightly Controlled.” Reuters. January 7, 2019. https://reut.rs/2T2tvnk on Brazilian President Bolsonaro, who has made similar statements.

Drezner (2008).

This is consistent with the findings of Kiratli (2020), who argues that people may be particuarly dissatisfied when there is a gap between economic expectations and the perceived utility of IOs, which is especially pronounced for voters in countries that contribute more to IOs.

Our samples are are broadly representative based on education, income, gender, and age, as shown in Table A5.

Hurst et al. (2017).

E.g., De Vries (2018), Schneider (2019), and Kiratli (2021).

E.g., Buchanan and Keohane (2006) and Dellmuth and Scholte (2018).

See De Vries et al. (2021) on international instititons and Rho (2017) on trade, for instance.

Milner and Dustin (2012), Gray (2018), and Tallberg and Zürn (2019).

Cassata, Donna. “Seeking Showdown With Clinton, Gingrich Gets One With GOP.” CNN. March 18, 1998. https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/03/18/cq/foreign.policy.html

Webb, Whitney. “Leaked WikiLeaks Doc Reveals US Military Use of IMF, World Bank.” Mint News. February 7, 2019. https://bit.ly/3aMvna5

Mutz and Kim (2017).

Brutger and Rathbun (2021).

Milner and Dustin (2012). While Milner and Tingley argue that publics prefer bilateral solutions to multilateral ones when they desire control, powerful states may possess comparable influence over IOs in some cases while yielding other benefits, such as a veil of legitimacy.

For example, Rathbun et al. (2016).

Dellmuth and Scholte (2018).

Rathbun (2007).

Schwartz (2012). Also see Rathbun et al. (2016).

Brutger (2021).

Brutger and Li (2022) and Casler and Groves (2021).

Rathbun (2007).

Hermann (1990) and Voss and Post (1988).

Brutger and Kertzer (2018).

Rathbun (2007).

Barnea and Schwartz (1998), Hiel and Mervielde (2002), and Kugler et al. (2014).

Rathbun (2007).

Jost (2017).

Casler and Groves (2021).

We use social values theory to predict heterogenous effects across ideology (and partisanship), since ideology and partisanship are some of the most salient dimensions guiding the formation of political coalitions and the policy making process. While we could have attempted to directly measure core values, we follow recent scholarship, such as Brutger (2021) and Casler and Groves (2021), by focusing on the politically salient dimensions that are likely to be more meaningful to political audiences. For example, policy advisors and politicians seeking to build a domestic coalition are likely to ask whether liberals, moderates, and/or conservatives will support a policy, or in the American context whether Democrats and/or Republicans will support a policy. However, it is quite unlikely that political actors will consider whether individuals who are high or low in specific values, such as self-transcendence values, are likely to support or oppose a policy.

As these examples suggest, the US is the largest contributor to organizations with various institutional design features. This logic then is not specific to any one voting scheme or governance framework.

See e.g. Trump on NATO and the WHO — Browne, Ryan. “Trump Administration to Cut its Financial Contribution to NATO.” CNN. November 28, 2019. https://cnn.it/3cuIKx4

Cassata, Donna. “Seeking Showdown With Clinton, Gingrich Gets One With GOP.” CNN. March 18, 1998. https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/03/18/cq/foreign.policy.html

Ibid.

The experiment was approved by the Institutional Review Board at the University of California, Berkeley, under protocol 2019-07-12427.

E.g., Clark and Dolan (2021).

Smith, R. Jeffrey. “Republicans Seek to Curb UN Funding.” Washington Post. January 23, 1995. https://wapo.st/3jrktdH; “Trump Calls for World Bank to Stop Loaning to China.” Reuters. December 6, 2019. https://reut.rs/3iR3T7b

See Guisinger and Saunders (2017) on elite cues and international issues.

For examples of publications in leading political science journals using Dynata (SSI) studies, see e.g. Brutger and Kertzer (2018), Brutger and Strezhnev (2022), and Bush and Prather (2020). We discuss ethics and human subjects principles in detail in Appendix §8. The Appendix is available on the Review of International Organizations’ webpage.

For descriptive statistics and respondents per treatment, see Appendix Tables A3 and A4. For respondent screening procedures, see Appendix §2.1.

See Appendix Table A1.

See Appendix Table A5.

See Brutger et al. (2022), which shows that salient cue-givers can generate larger treatment effects.

We specifically make use of IO mandates from their founding documents and websites.

As shown below, the influence treatments specify the formal rules that give control through the ability to veto, which allow the US to exert significant influence. This means that the treatment potentially combines public concerns about control and influence in IOs, which is representative of how the issues are frequently discussed by the media and elites, and is appropriate given the close connection between control and influence. For more on state influence and control in IOs, see Novosad and Werker (2014) and Stone (2011).

News coverage similarly juxtaposes discussions of US influence with cost considerations – see e.g. Harris, Gardiner. “Trump Administration Withdraws US From U.N. Human Rights Council.” New York Times. June 19, 2018. https://nyti.ms/3e7vK15; Armus, Teo. “Trump Threatens to Permanently Cut WHO Funding.” May 19, 2020. Washington Post. https://wapo.st/2Y3R9CC.

See Brutger et al. (2022), which finds that longer treatment text reduces the size of average treatment effects.

We randomized whether respondents who received this treatment received the influence or cost condition first.

These results also hold when we include socio-demographic covariates (Appendix Table A7).

The measure of ideology and a discussion of its use is provided in Appendix §2.4

In the subset analysis, each respondent is coded as liberal if they selected “slightly liberal,” “liberal,” or “extremely liberal” with conservatives coded in the corresponding manner.

With respondents’ stronger priors toward the UN, we also recognize that conservatives have become muchmore negative toward the UN, especially since the 9/11 attacks (Pushter, 2016).

See e.g. Mutz (2020) on trust in IOs, Hurd (1999), Tallberg and Zürn (2019), and Dellmuth and Tallberg (2019) on legitimacy, and Bechtel and Scheve (2013) and Brutger and Rathbun (2021) on fairness in international climate and economic policy.

We randomized the order of the main dependent variable and the potential mediators, as recommended.

Dellmuth and Scholte (2018).

Brutger and Rathbun (2021).

Dellmuth and Scholte (2018).

See Imai et al. (2011) and Keele (2015).

Once again, we re-scale the seven-point conservatism variable to a 0-1 scale for ease of interpretation.

Notably, the average fairness, legitimacy, and trust values are much higher for liberals than conservatives. Specifically, liberals average 3.64, 3.45, and 3.91 out of five for fairness, trust, and legitimacy respectively, while conservatives average 3.10, 2.91, and 3.23.

Had we directly measured whether individuals place a higher value on equality versus equity, we would have likely found a larger negative effect of the influence treatment on those who prioritize equality. This means that the potential bias of proxying for core values with ideology may lead to our estimates being relatively conservative, since ideology is not as precise a measure of the underlying value.

Jost (2017).

Our sample is balanced on key observables, as is shown in Appendix Figure A8. To enhance data quality we implemented a series of respondent screening questions and procedures, which we detail in the Appendix Section 6.1, along with a discussion of some of the strengths and limitations of the sample. Descriptive statistics for the sample can be found in Appendix Table A9. Comparisons to Census benchmarks can be found in Table A5.

Cassata, Donna. “Seeking Showdown With Clinton, Gingrich Gets One With GOP.” CNN. March 18, 1998. https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/03/18/cq/foreign.policy.html

House Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Foreign Operations and Related Agencies, Foreign Assistance and Related Programs Appropriations for 1982: Hearings before a Subcommittee of the Committee on Appropriations, 97th Congress, First Session.

Hennigan, W.J. “We Reject Globalism: President Trump Took American First to the United Nations.” Time. September 25, 2018. https://bit.ly/3Bo85UO

Schlipphak et al. (2022)

Brutger (2021).

Brewer (2001) and Druckman (2001)

See e.g., Zaller (1992).

See e.g., Hiscox (2006).

See e.g. Cassata, Donna. “Seeking Showdown With Clinton, Gingrich Gets One With GOP.” CNN. March 18, 1998. https://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1998/03/18/cq/foreign.policy.html and the 2018 US budgetary documents at https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BUDGET-2018-BUD/pdf/BUDGET-2018-BUD.pdf.

Since the survey provided information about funding departments (Defense, Education, Transportation, etc.) we felt that the most similar comparison was to include funding for the State Department and related foreign policy allocations, as opposed to the specific line-item for the IO funding.

See Ibid p. 50.

The results broken down by IO can be found in Appendix Figures A1–A2, and they remain generally consistent with the aggregate results.

We tuned the models to ensure that exclusivity and semantic coherence were high. For democrats, we run the model with six topics. For republicans, we run it with five topics.

Guisinger and Saunders (2017).

Dellmuth et al. (2021).

See e.g. Stone (2011), Clark and Dolan (2021), Kaya (2015), and Clark (2021).

100

See Barnett (1999) and Johnson (2014).

101

See e.g., Pratt (2021) and Gray (2018).

102

See Brooks (2008) and Ikenberry (2011).

103

See Zvogbo (2019), Kaya et al. (2020), and Voeten (2020) respectively.

104

See Voeten (2005), Greenhill (2020), and Brutger (2021).

105

See Kilby (2011) and Lim and Vreeland (2013).

106

See Brutger et al. (2022).

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Title: At what cost? Power, payments, and public support of international organizations
Authors: Ryan Brutger
Richard Clark
Publication date: 14-10-2022
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: The Review of International Organizations / Issue 3/2023
Print ISSN: 1559-7431
Electronic ISSN: 1559-744X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-022-09479-9

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