Attempting to Predict the Proliferation of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: A Statistical Analysis

Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), while much-discussed in research throughout the academic and political realms, are often highly politicized, with people of every side of the argument claiming vastly different things about the capability, legality, and morality of these systems. This research seeks to dispel some of the uncertainty surrounding these weapons systems by compiling evidence from academics, philosophers, and military officials to create a holistic briefing. This accomplished, the research draws upon Stephen Meyer’s The Dynamics of Nuclear Proliferation to predict the proliferation of lethal autonomy by examining shared characteristics among the six states currently confirmed to be in possession of this technology. The research results in an algorithm with 64.5% explanatory power over the variation in possession of lethal autonomy, which can be used to predict with reasonable accuracy a given state’s likelihood to proliferate. The algorithm could serve organizations seeking to track proliferation by functioning as a mathematical flashlight to highlight key warning signs of imminent acquisition, thereby protecting against destabilizing shifts in the balance of power status quo.