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Published in:
2007 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
Beyond Growth? Decline of The Urban Fabric In Eastern Germany
A spatially explicit modelling approach to predict residential vacancy and demolition priorities
Authors : D. Haase, A. Holzkämper, R. Seppelt
Published in: Modelling Land-Use Change
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
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Urban growth has been replaced by decline of the urban fabric in many parts of Europe. Reasons for this shrinkage are to be found in processes of demographic change and migration in city regions. This chapter presents relevant indicators and a rule-based modelling approach to residential change and building demolition in Eastern Germany. The first part will focus on the research objectives and briefly discusses the urban decline phenomenon and the need for a new modelling approach in order to understand the current shifts in urban development. Besides this, relevant predictor variables for identifying spatial shrinkage and residential vacancy are discussed. Finally, their integration into a GIS-based spatially explicit model completes the chapter.