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Published in:
23-06-2017 | Originalarbeiten/Originals
Bootstrap Monte Carlo Simulation of Reliability and Confidence Level with Periodical Maintenance
Published in: Forschung im Ingenieurwesen | Issue 4/2017
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Abstract
The bootstrap Monte Carlo simulation (BMCS) is presented as a new method for determining the reliability and confidence level of a general technical system with periodical maintenance. The method can be implemented on the basis of pure samples of failure times or of the mean value distributions in combination with the corresponding sample size of reliability. The BMCS does not require special distribution types and facilitates both the prediction and demonstration of reliability.
Firstly, the bootstrap method for determining a confidence interval of a distribution function is investigated in order to verify the use of BMCS as a new method. The confidence level calculated by bootstrapping is therefore to be compared with the confidence level based on the beta-distribution. The accuracy of the BMCS shall subsequently be investigated by observing a component with periodical renewal. The confidence level of the reliability with periodical renewal calculated using the BMCS will be compared with the confidence level determined using the method of moments. Finally, a parameter study is carried out, and a case study as well as the potential of the BMCS shall be presented.