Building Energy Consumption and Future Energy-Saving Potential Research in China Based on Population Development Model

The construction industry is one of the major energy-saving fields. It is necessary to define the target of energy conservation and emission reduction targets according to the future social and economic development needs and the energy characteristics of the construction industry. Based on the population development model, a top-down method was used to calculate the stock of building floor space in China in this study. A bottom-up model was established to the calculated energy consumption of China’s construction sector. Different scenarios of energy consumption in China’s construction field were constructed. The future total energy consumption of buildings under different scenarios was predicted. The results found that under the situation of ‘slow development of urbanization + strict control of per capita area’, by 2050, the total area of various types of buildings in China will reach 69.78 billion m². Under the scenario of ‘medium energy conservation and emission reduction’, by 2030, the target of building energy consumption control in China is 102 million tce. In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction in China, the national building stock should be restricted within 70 billion m². This paper aims to provide reference for long-term planning of energy saving and emission reduction in China’s construction field.