Carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) for energy sector planning in Nigeria

Nigeria has abundant of fossils and renewable energy resources. However, systematic energy planning techniques are desirable to facilitate the sustainable management of these resources. In this work, carbon emission pinch analysis which incorporates macro-level sectorial electricity planning was applied for Nigeria. The minimum renewable targets were determined, and some of the possibilities of realising meaningful emissions reduction with increases in demand were revealed. The minimum renewable target of 408 TW h is required to keep emissions level as that of year 2015, while at the same time meeting the projected demand of 530 TW h in 2035. The present estimation shows that renewable energy applications could immensely contribute to the energy mix and favourable over fossil fuel for carbon emissions reductions. Biomass has the potential to sustain the nation from energy shortages, decrease the grid emission factor for Nigeria electricity sector from 0.91 t CO₂/TW h (2015) to 0.21 t CO₂/TW h (2035). The electricity generation mix for year 2035 is best derived from biomass, solar, and hydropower.