Challenge and Change

The future of the USA and Western Europe as global leaders is examined in this chapter. American global leadership, often described as hegemonic by its enemies, is analyzed and alternatives for the future are considered. The gradual departure of Western Europe/The European Union from traditional global leadership to the exercise of “soft power” is also examined for its possible impact on the twenty-first century.

This chapter adopts a neorealist approach to analyze the structural megatrends of the twenty-first century: types of interaction and distribution of power within the enlarged group of the world’s leading powers, and the territorial reconfiguration of the world that is taking place as a result of great power politics. One assumption is that states continue to play a visible and active role in world politics. The number of great powers has grown, bringing more complexity and controversy to international relations, global and regional organizations, and governance. Great powers often aim at establishing new types of regional subsystems on the basis of common interests and challenges, constituting its core, and determining economic and often political development of the countries involved. The author presents a definition of a regional subsystem, examining the North American, South American, European, and Russian (Small Eurasia) subsystems. The chapter suggests possible scenarios for the future development of the international order depending on the distribution of power between leading world countries (primarily, the USA, China, Russia, and the European Union).

This chapter attempts to examine and assess the strategic vision and tactics deployed by China and India as their leaders seek to chart a viable course for their countries in the face of the uncertain pull of an international system undergoing a protracted power shift and the insistent demands of a globalized world of transnational economic, cultural, and information flows. The chapter explains why changes to the Asian security, economic, environmental, and socio-cultural landscapes presaged by the rise of China and the countervailing rise of India raise important questions for US strategy and policy in the twenty-first century.

This chapter analyzes shifts in the world economy since the 2008–09 downturn and their repercussions for advanced industrialized countries and developing/emerging markets. Time series data indicate that the global economic position of emerging markets significantly strengthened during the post-recession period. This development signals an enduring transformation of relations between developed countries and emerging markets, with major implications for global economic governance.

The three themes of Internet governance at the international level, emergence of global mass surveillance, and the development of the capabilities for cyber warfare provide a glimpse into some of twenty-first-century challenges within the international system.

The early twenty-first century has been characterized by an unprecedented rate of technological change, particularly in the areas classed as information technology. This is changing the practice of international relations and the pursuit of international security. Large and small nations and non-state actors are now playing on a much more level technological playing field, which is changing the distribution of power in the world. Both hard and soft powers are being affected by technological change. The pace of change makes long-range predictions of the trajectory of technology impossible, but it is clear that the ability to innovate and exploit changes will be essential to states’ success for the remainder of the century.

Terrorism has been around since the beginning of recorded history. What have changed are the dissident groups’ capability of inflicting harm on an ever-larger number of people, their ability to organize through the Internet, and, thanks to the media, a heightened concern, bordering on paranoia, among the populace about their own security. Domestically, nations, particularly in the West, are deeply concerned about the radicalization of the youth along the entire ideological spectrum. Increased migration from the war-torn areas and failed states is not only putting strains on the nations’ resources but is also fomenting xenophobic reactions among native populations. There are also fears of terrorist cells among immigrant minorities, isolated in their enclaves. To this volatile mix, we must add the internecine warfare with deep historical roots in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. This chapter argues for a measured approach that examines the threat in its proper perspective.

This chapter discusses the issues relating to the international governance of “common spaces”. At present, it is possible to talk about five such spaces (ocean space, subarctic space, sky space, outer space, and information space). These spaces cannot be used as territorial areas, but they definitely can be used for communication. People do not live in these spaces, but they use them for different activities. Most of these spaces are either internationally governed or regulated by international laws. However, the twenty-first century marked the beginning of struggle among the super states for the repartition of these spaces, which eventually could lead to new crises or a new order.

An exploration by contributors to this book of the critical issues that beset our planet reveals that states in the international (or inter-state) system need to look for ways to forge cooperative multilateral and multilayered institutions of global governance, without which the successful resolution of many of the transnational problems we face appears improbable.¹ Institution building generally tends to lag behind economic and technological changes. In the twenty-first century, these changes have eroded the capacity of states to fulfill the primary functions of providing for the security and welfare of national populations. Speaking at an International Peace Institute policy forum on October 23, 2015, United Nations (UN) Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon emphasized the need for states and international organizations to make a greater effort to create frameworks for effective global governance. He argued that global governance mechanisms were “not keeping pace with the challenges of a more complex and interconnected world,” adding that “[w]e need to tune all of our institutions to the times—times in which even the most local problems have a global dimension.”²