2. China and the Contemporary Asian Balance

South China Morning Post, ‘China Protests over Indian President’s Trip to Contested Border Area,’ South China Morning Post, November 20, 2017. Available at: https://​www.​scmp.​com/​news/​china/​diplomacy-defence/​article/​2120731/​china-protests-over-indian-presidents-trip-contested (Last accessed: 2 November 2019).

2019 findings by Pew indicate that in the Asia–Pacific, China is viewed favorably only by some 36 and 57% unfavorably. Within India and Japan, the numbers are even less at 26 and 13% respectively. See: Silver, Laura, Devlin, Kat and Huang, Christine, ‘People Around the Globe Are Divided in Their Opinions of China,’ Pew Research Center (2019). Available at: https://​www.​pewresearch.​org/​fact-tank/​2019/​09/​30/​people-around-the-globe-are-divided-in-their-opinions-of-china/​ (Last accessed: 2 November 2019).

Writes one Indian think tank about the resolution of the standoff at Doklam involving China and Bhutan with whom India has a mutual defense pact after China failed to illegally construct roads on its territory: “This is a huge political, diplomatic and moral victory for India. It will contribute to raising the stature of the country and of Prime Minister Modi even higher in the international community. The fact that the Indian government stayed steadfast and resolute and did not blink even in the face of extreme provocation, speaks volumes of the determined and decisive approach of the present government. The episode has significantly burnished the image of India as a responsible, decisive and reliable actor on the global scene.” See Sajjanhar, Ashok, ‘The Doklam Crisis Ends: A Diplomatic Victory for India,’ Observer Research Foundation, August 30, 2017. Available at: https://​www.​orfonline.​org/​expert-speak/​the-doklam-crisis-ends-a-diplomatic-victory-for-india/​ (Last accessed: 2 November 2019).

Martin Jacques’s When China Rules the World (2009) was the earliest; Hal Brands’ American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump (2018). Paul Kennedy’s framework has been a continual reference point for other subsequent scholars seeking to characterize the rise of China as indicative of a power shift, even if they do not entirely take it on board.

“What is this book’s Big Idea? In a phrase, Thucydides Trap. When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, alarm bells should sound: danger ahead” (Allison 2017: vii).

This “limits the notion of China becoming a ‘responsible stakeholder’” (Allison 2017: xviii). This is especially heightened by clash of civilization thesis advanced by Samuel Huntington.

“The MFA, like other Chinese governmental agencies, has come to be managed by technocrats. These are trained experts with knowledge in specific functional issue areas. Though anyone with a college degree may apply to the ministry, its entrance examination clearly favors those majoring in foreign languages, political science, and international business” (p. 423). For example, China’s Ambassador to South Africa at the time of writing, Lin Songtian, is a career diplomat whose career began in 1986 at MOFA and progressed within the ranks until obtaining the rank of Ambassador in 2003. See Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in the Republic of South Africa, ‘Resume of H.E. Ambassador LIN Songtian,’ August 9, 2017. Available at: http://​za.​china-embassy.​org/​eng/​dsxx/​dsjl/​t1483382.​htm (Last accessed: 16 May 2019).

“Meanwhile, the PLA demographics continue to be predominantly rural. The epistemic communities the MFA and the PLA belong to are markedly dissimilar. Armed with guns, populated with people from poorer and more nationalist regions, and proud of direct lineage from the CCP bloodline, the military has been getting louder in voicing its own stance on diplomacy” (Sun 2017: 429).

See Zhang, Yongjin, ‘The Tribute System,’ Oxford Bibliographies, April 22, 2013. Available at: https://​www.​oxfordbibliograp​hies.​com/​view/​document/​obo-9780199920082/​obo-9780199920082-0069.​xml (Last accessed: 6 November 2019). “There Is also Broad Agreement That a Tribute System of a Sort Existed and Operated to Regulate China’s Trade and Diplomacy with Its Neighbours at Least as Far Back as the Han Dynasty (206 BCE–220 CE)” (Zhang 2013). See Cohen, Warren I., East Asia at the Center: Four Thousand Years of Engagement with the World (New York: Columbia University Press, 2000).

It is worth recalling that the Russo-Japanese War of 1905, which was won by Japan, was over a Chinese seaport (Port Arthur), and that Vladivostok was handed over to Russia by China in the imbalanced Treaty of Beijing signed in 1860.

Akita, Hiroyuki, ‘Russia and China Romance Runs into Friction in Central Asia,’ Nikkei Asian Review, July 29, 2019. Available at: https://​asia.​nikkei.​com/​Spotlight/​Comment/​Russia-and-China-romance-runs-into-friction-in-Central-Asia (Last accessed: 1 November 2019).

Strait Times. ‘China Pledges $800 m in Aid to Cambodia,’ Strait Times, January 23, 2019. Available at: https://​www.​straitstimes.​com/​asia/​se-asia/​china-pledges-800m-in-aid-to-cambodia (Last accessed: 12 November 2019). See also Zhou, T. ‘A Blend of “Hard” and “Soft” Assistance: China’s Aid to Cambodia,’ 95–112, in Huang M., Xu X., Mao X. (eds) South-south Cooperation and Chinese Foreign Aid (Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019).

MIT, ‘Where Does Cambodia Export To? (2016)’, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity (2019). Available at: https://​oec.​world/​en/​visualize/​tree_​map/​sitc/​export/​khm/​show/​all/​2016/​ (Last accessed: 12 November 2019).

MIT, ‘Where Does Laos Export To? (2010)’, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity (2019). https://​oec.​world/​en/​visualize/​tree_​map/​sitc/​export/​lao/​show/​all/​2010/​ (Last accessed: 12 November 2019).

Ma, Josephine, ‘There’s No Chinese ‘Debt Trap’, Says Myanmar Minister, as Government Pushes for Joint Port Project to Go Ahead,’ South China Morning Post, June 30, 2018. Available at: https://​www.​scmp.​com/​news/​china/​diplomacy-defence/​article/​2153210/​myanmar-minister-dismisses-chinese-debt-trap-fears-over (Last accessed: 12 November 2019).

BBC, ‘How Uninhabited Islands Soured China-Japan Ties,’ BBC, November 10, 2014. Available at: https://​www.​bbc.​com/​news/​world-asia-pacific-11341139 (Last accessed: 2 November 2019).

Al Jazeera, ‘Trump Assures Abe over Disputed East China Sea islands,’ Al Jazeera, February 10, 2017. Available at: https://​www.​aljazeera.​com/​news/​2017/​02/​trump-assures-abe-disputed-east-china-sea-islands-170210201048825.​html (Last accessed: 2 November 2019).

Allison’s semi-deterministic argument is based on this assumption: “Intentions aside, when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, the resulting structural stress makes a violent clash the rule, not the exception” (Allison 2017: xv).

WTO, ‘Japan’ (2017). Available at: http://​stat.​wto.​org/​CountryProfile/​WSDBCountryPFVie​w.​aspx?​Language=​S&​Country=​JP (Last accessed: 18 November 2019); WTO, ‘Chinese Taipei’ (2017). Available at: (Last accessed: 18 November 2019); WTO, ‘India’ (2017). Available at: (Last accessed: 18 November 2019). US Census Bureau, ‘Trade in Goods with World, Seasonally Adjusted’ (2019). Available at: (Last accessed: 18 November 2019).