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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

6. Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture

Authors : Thomas W. Hertel, Uris Lantz C. Baldos

Published in: Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In this chapter, we begin by reviewing the evidence on climate change, its consequences for temperature and precipitation, and the resulting mechanisms through which it affects crop production. These include: the impact of temperature on crop development, how elevated CO₂ levels affect plant photosynthesis and respiration, increased water stress for crops due to higher temperatures and uneven rainfall, extreme temperature damage, and additional crop damage from pests and disease. We then review the empirical evidence quantifying some of these impacts historically and use these as a basis for some global simulations of climate change impacts using the SIMPLE model. In addition to analyzing the basic impacts on land use and food prices, we also explore potential responses to climate change, including adaptation through additional investments in irrigation, as well as the development of heat and drought tolerant crop varieties via increased funding for agricultural research. We also show how successful adaptation to climate change can offer significant mitigation benefits, stemming from the fact that improved yields lessen the need for land conversion, which in turn reduces further emissions from land use change.

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previous chapter Water, Food and Environmental Security

next chapter Land-Based Environmental Services

This section draws heavily on Hertel and Lobell (2014).

This section draws heavily on Hertel and Rosch (2010).

The use of land values, as opposed to annual returns, has the additional advantage of embodying the expectations of returns in a normal year, whereas annual net returns will be influenced to random variations in annual production. However, in many developing countries land markets are insufficiently developed to allow this approach, and so net returns are used.

This section draws heavily on Hertel and Lobell (2014).

This section draws heavily on Lobell, Baldos and Hertel (2013).

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Title: Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture
Authors: Thomas W. Hertel
Uris Lantz C. Baldos
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Global Change and the Challenges of Sustainably Feeding a Growing Planet
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-22661-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-22662-0

Copyright Year: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22662-0_6

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