Skip to main content
Top

2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

16. Cointegration Analysis

Author : Uwe Hassler

Published in: Stochastic Processes and Calculus

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This chapter is addressed to the analysis of cointegrated variables. Properties like superconsistency of the LS estimator and conditions for asymptotic normality are extensively discussed. Error-correction is the reverse of cointegration, which is why we provide an introduction to the analysis of error-correction models as well. In particular, we discuss cointegration testing. In 2003, Clive W.J. Granger was awarded the Nobel prize for introducing the concept of cointegration. Finally, we stress once more the effect of linear time trends underlying the series.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
go back to reference Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., & Mestre R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 267–283.CrossRef Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., & Mestre R. (1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19, 267–283.CrossRef
go back to reference Boswijk, H. P. (1994). Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 63, 37–60.CrossRef Boswijk, H. P. (1994). Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 63, 37–60.CrossRef
go back to reference Davidson, J., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F., & Yeo S. (1978). Econometric modelling of the aggregate time-series relationship between consumers’ expenditure and income in the United Kingdom. Economic Journal, 88, 661–692.CrossRef Davidson, J., Hendry, D. F., Srba, F., & Yeo S. (1978). Econometric modelling of the aggregate time-series relationship between consumers’ expenditure and income in the United Kingdom. Economic Journal, 88, 661–692.CrossRef
go back to reference Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–276.CrossRef Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–276.CrossRef
go back to reference Ericsson, N. R., & MacKinnon, J. G. (2002). Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration. Econometrics Journal, 5, 285–318.CrossRef Ericsson, N. R., & MacKinnon, J. G. (2002). Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration. Econometrics Journal, 5, 285–318.CrossRef
go back to reference Frisch, R., & Waugh, F. V. (1933). Partial time regressions as compared with individual trends. Econometrica, 1, 387–401.CrossRef Frisch, R., & Waugh, F. V. (1933). Partial time regressions as compared with individual trends. Econometrica, 1, 387–401.CrossRef
go back to reference Hamilton, J. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Hamilton, J. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
go back to reference Hansen, B. E. (1992). Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends. Journal of Econometrics, 53, 87–121.CrossRef Hansen, B. E. (1992). Efficient estimation and testing of cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends. Journal of Econometrics, 53, 87–121.CrossRef
go back to reference Harris, D., & Inder, B. (1994). A test of the null hypothesis of cointegration. In C. P. Hargreaves (Ed.), Nonstationary time series analysis and cointegration (pp. 133–152). Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press. Harris, D., & Inder, B. (1994). A test of the null hypothesis of cointegration. In C. P. Hargreaves (Ed.), Nonstationary time series analysis and cointegration (pp. 133–152). Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Hassler, U. (2000a). Cointegration testing in single error-correction equations in the presence of linear time trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62, 621–632.CrossRef Hassler, U. (2000a). Cointegration testing in single error-correction equations in the presence of linear time trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62, 621–632.CrossRef
go back to reference Hassler, U. (2000b). The KPSS test for cointegration in case of bivariate regressions with linear trends. Econometric Theory, 16, 451–453.CrossRef Hassler, U. (2000b). The KPSS test for cointegration in case of bivariate regressions with linear trends. Econometric Theory, 16, 451–453.CrossRef
go back to reference Hassler, U. (2001). The effect of linear time trends on the KPSS test for cointegration. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22, 283–292.CrossRef Hassler, U. (2001). The effect of linear time trends on the KPSS test for cointegration. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 22, 283–292.CrossRef
go back to reference Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-based inference in cointegrated vector autoregressive models. Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Krämer, W. (1986). Least squares regression when the independent variable follows an ARIMA process. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 150–154. Krämer, W. (1986). Least squares regression when the independent variable follows an ARIMA process. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 150–154.
go back to reference Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.CrossRef Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.CrossRef
go back to reference Leybourne, S. J., & McCabe, B. P. M. (1994). A simple test for cointegration. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56, 97–103.CrossRef Leybourne, S. J., & McCabe, B. P. M. (1994). A simple test for cointegration. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 56, 97–103.CrossRef
go back to reference MacKinnon, J. G. (1991). Critical values for co-integration tests. In R. F. Engle, & C. W. J. Granger (Eds.), Long-run economic relationships (pp. 267–276). Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press. MacKinnon, J. G. (1991). Critical values for co-integration tests. In R. F. Engle, & C. W. J. Granger (Eds.), Long-run economic relationships (pp. 267–276). Oxford/New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601–618.CrossRef MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601–618.CrossRef
go back to reference Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica, 60, 119–143.CrossRef Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica, 60, 119–143.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B. (1986). Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 33, 311–340.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B. (1986). Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 33, 311–340.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B. (1987). Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica, 55, 277–301.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B. (1987). Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica, 55, 277–301.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B. (1991). Optimal inference in cointegrated systems. Econometrica, 59, 283–306.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B. (1991). Optimal inference in cointegrated systems. Econometrica, 59, 283–306.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1986). Multiple time series regression with integrated processes. Review of Economic Studies, LIII, 473–495. Phillips, P. C. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1986). Multiple time series regression with integrated processes. Review of Economic Studies, LIII, 473–495.
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99–125.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B., & Loretan, M. (1991). Estimating long-run economic equilibria. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 407–436.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B., & Loretan, M. (1991). Estimating long-run economic equilibria. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 407–436.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B., & Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration. Econometrica, 58, 165–193.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B., & Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for cointegration. Econometrica, 58, 165–193.CrossRef
go back to reference Phillips, P. C. B., & Park, J. Y. (1988). Asymptotic equivalence of ordinary least squares and generalized least squares in regressions with integrated regressors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 111–115.CrossRef Phillips, P. C. B., & Park, J. Y. (1988). Asymptotic equivalence of ordinary least squares and generalized least squares in regressions with integrated regressors. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 111–115.CrossRef
go back to reference Saikkonen, P. (1991). Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric Theory, 7, 1–21.CrossRef Saikkonen, P. (1991). Asymptotically efficient estimation of cointegration regressions. Econometric Theory, 7, 1–21.CrossRef
go back to reference Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the Null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10, 91–115.CrossRef Shin, Y. (1994). A residual-based test of the Null of cointegration against the alternative of no cointegration. Econometric Theory, 10, 91–115.CrossRef
go back to reference Stock, J. H. (1987). Asymptotic properties of least squares estimators of cointegrating vectors. Econometrica, 55, 1035–1056.CrossRef Stock, J. H. (1987). Asymptotic properties of least squares estimators of cointegrating vectors. Econometrica, 55, 1035–1056.CrossRef
go back to reference Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica, 61, 783–820.CrossRef Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica, 61, 783–820.CrossRef
go back to reference West, K. D. (1988). Asymptotic normality, when regressors have a unit root. Econometrica, 56, 1397–1418.CrossRef West, K. D. (1988). Asymptotic normality, when regressors have a unit root. Econometrica, 56, 1397–1418.CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Cointegration Analysis
Author
Uwe Hassler
Copyright Year
2016
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23428-1_16

Premium Partner