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Published in: Public Choice 1-2/2019

30-11-2018

Collective decision-making of voters with heterogeneous levels of rationality

Author: Youzong Xu

Published in: Public Choice | Issue 1-2/2019

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Abstract

This paper studies the collective decision-making processes of voters who have heterogeneous levels of rationality. Specifically, we consider a voting body consisting of both rational and sincere voters. Rational voters vote strategically, correctly using both their private information and the information implicit in other voters’ actions to make decisions; sincere voters vote according to their private information alone. We first characterize the conditions under which the presence of sincere voters increases, reduces, or does not alter the probabilities of making correct collective decisions. We also discuss how the probabilities change when the incidence of sincere voters in the population varies. We then characterize the necessary and sufficient condition under which informational efficiency can be achieved when sincere voters coexist with rational voters. We find that when sincere voters are present, supermajority rules with high consensus levels are not as desirable as they are in rational voting models, as informational efficiency fails under such voting rules.

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
The rational voting model refers to the game-theoretical voting model, which assumes that all voters are rational and vote strategically. Some studies refer to this model as the strategic voting model.
 
2
Here, a correct collective decision means that, when voters have state-contingent preferences over alternatives, the alternative selected by collective decision-making matches the true state. For example, a jury convicts a guilty defendant or acquits an innocent defendant.
 
3
A rational voter is pivotal if her action alone determines the outcome of the collective decision. A rational voter makes her decision conditional on being pivotal because her own vote affects her expected utility if and only if she is the pivotal voter.
 
4
If we generalize our model to accommodate more possible states, one simplified method that sincere voters may use to make decisions is the analogy-based expectation method in Jehiel and Koessler (2008). Voters who use the analogy-based expectation method fail to correctly estimate the correlation between other voters’ actions and the state. Thus, such voters have to rely on their own private information to make decisions more than rational voters do.
 
5
Cognitive hierarchy, introduced by Camerer et al. (2004), is one version of the level-k thinking model.
 
6
Jehiel and Koessler (2008) consider players who play their best responses to their opponents’ average strategy in analogous states, failing to correctly conjecture the correlation between other players’ actions and the true state. Miettinen (2009) establishes a link between cursed equilibria and analogy-based expectation equilibria.
 
7
The assumption that the two states are selected by Nature with equal probability is made for technical simplicity. Our model can easily be generalized to allow the two states to be selected by Nature with different probabilities without affecting the main findings.
 
8
In this setting, a tie will never occur.
 
9
Because we focus on symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibria, no need exists to identify each particular voter.
 
10
The probability that a vote ends on alternative \(\varOmega \in \left\{ A,B\right\}\) in state S in a behavioral environment is the weighted sum of the probabilities that a voter is rational and votes for \(\varOmega\) and that the voter is behavioral and votes for \(\varOmega\) in this state, weighted by the probabilities that the voter is rational or sincere.
 
11
We do not need to worry about the false selection of A in behavioral environments because, as we show in the “Appendix”, the probability of the false selection of A will diminish to zero as the voter population increases to infinity, regardless of the values of \(\theta\) and q.
 
12
Notation \(\lfloor x\rfloor\) denotes the largest integer that is strictly less than \(x\in {\mathbb {R}}\). If x is an integer itself, then \(\lfloor x\rfloor =x-1\).
 
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Metadata
Title
Collective decision-making of voters with heterogeneous levels of rationality
Author
Youzong Xu
Publication date
30-11-2018
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Public Choice / Issue 1-2/2019
Print ISSN: 0048-5829
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7101
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-018-00627-7

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