Skip to main content
Top

2021 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Combining Process Mining and Machine Learning for Lead Time Prediction in High Variance Processes

Authors : M. Welsing, J. Maetschke, K. Thomas, A. Gützlaff, G. Schuh, S. Meusert

Published in: Production at the leading edge of technology

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

Machine learning offers a high potential for the prediction of manufacturing lead times. In practical operations the lack of defined processes and high-quality input data are a major obstacle for the use of machine learning. The method of process mining creates a better transparency of such workflows and enriches related data. This paper develops a method, which combines the benefits of machine learning and process mining with the goal of high accuracy lead time prediction. The method is focused on high variance processes and verified with a case study containing real industrial data from heavy engine assembly processes.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Literature
1.
go back to reference ElMaraghy, H., Schuh, G., ElMaraghy, W., Piller, F., Schönsleben, P., Tseng, M., Bernard, A.: Product variety management. CIRP Ann. 62, 629–652 (2013)CrossRef ElMaraghy, H., Schuh, G., ElMaraghy, W., Piller, F., Schönsleben, P., Tseng, M., Bernard, A.: Product variety management. CIRP Ann. 62, 629–652 (2013)CrossRef
2.
go back to reference Ivanov, A., Jaff, T.: Manufacturing lead time reduction and its effect on internal supply chain. In: Sustainable Design and Manufacturing 2017, pp. 398–407 (2017) Ivanov, A., Jaff, T.: Manufacturing lead time reduction and its effect on internal supply chain. In: Sustainable Design and Manufacturing 2017, pp. 398–407 (2017)
3.
go back to reference Heaton, J.: An empirical analysis of feature engineering for predictive modeling (2017) Heaton, J.: An empirical analysis of feature engineering for predictive modeling (2017)
4.
go back to reference Ballambettu, N.P., Suresh, M.A., Bose, R.P.J.C.: Analyzing process variants to understand differences in key performance indices. In: Advanced Information Systems Engineering, pp. 298–313 (2017) Ballambettu, N.P., Suresh, M.A., Bose, R.P.J.C.: Analyzing process variants to understand differences in key performance indices. In: Advanced Information Systems Engineering, pp. 298–313 (2017)
5.
go back to reference Rose, L.T., Fischer, K.W.: Garbage in, garbage out: having useful data is everything. Measur. Interdisc. Res. Perspect. 9, 222–226 (2011) Rose, L.T., Fischer, K.W.: Garbage in, garbage out: having useful data is everything. Measur. Interdisc. Res. Perspect. 9, 222–226 (2011)
6.
go back to reference Mannila, H.: Data mining: machine learning, statistics, and databases. In: Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Scientific and Statistical Data Base Management, pp. 2–9 (1996) Mannila, H.: Data mining: machine learning, statistics, and databases. In: Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Scientific and Statistical Data Base Management, pp. 2–9 (1996)
7.
go back to reference Kotsiantis, S.B., Zaharakis, I., Pintelas, P.: Supervised machine learning: a review of classification techniques. Emerg. Artif. Intell. Appl. Comp. Eng. 160, 3–24 (2007) Kotsiantis, S.B., Zaharakis, I., Pintelas, P.: Supervised machine learning: a review of classification techniques. Emerg. Artif. Intell. Appl. Comp. Eng. 160, 3–24 (2007)
8.
go back to reference Choudhary, A.K., Harding, J.A., Tiwari, M.K.: Data mining in manufacturing: a review based on the kind of knowledge. J. Intell. Manuf. 20, 501–521 (2009)CrossRef Choudhary, A.K., Harding, J.A., Tiwari, M.K.: Data mining in manufacturing: a review based on the kind of knowledge. J. Intell. Manuf. 20, 501–521 (2009)CrossRef
9.
go back to reference Cheng, Y., Chen, K., Sun, H., Zhang, Y., Tao, F.: Data and knowledge mining with big data towards smart production. J. Ind. Info. Integr. 9, 1–13 (2018) Cheng, Y., Chen, K., Sun, H., Zhang, Y., Tao, F.: Data and knowledge mining with big data towards smart production. J. Ind. Info. Integr. 9, 1–13 (2018)
10.
go back to reference Lingitz, L., Gallina, V., Ansari, F., Gyulai, D., Pfeiffer, A., Sihn, W., Monostori, L.: Lead time prediction using machine learning algorithms: a case study by a semiconductor manufacturer. Procedia CIRP 72, 1051–1056 (2018)CrossRef Lingitz, L., Gallina, V., Ansari, F., Gyulai, D., Pfeiffer, A., Sihn, W., Monostori, L.: Lead time prediction using machine learning algorithms: a case study by a semiconductor manufacturer. Procedia CIRP 72, 1051–1056 (2018)CrossRef
11.
go back to reference Meidan, Y., Lerner, B., Rabinowitz, G., Hassoun, M.: Cycle-time key factor identification and prediction in semiconductor manufacturing using machine learning and data mining. IEEE Trans. Semicond. Manuf. 24, 237–248 (2011)CrossRef Meidan, Y., Lerner, B., Rabinowitz, G., Hassoun, M.: Cycle-time key factor identification and prediction in semiconductor manufacturing using machine learning and data mining. IEEE Trans. Semicond. Manuf. 24, 237–248 (2011)CrossRef
12.
go back to reference Gyulai, D., Pfeiffer, A., Nick, G., Gallina, V., Sihn, W., Monostori, L.: Lead time prediction in a flow-shop environment with analytical and machine learning approaches. IFAC-PapersOnLine 51, 1029–1034 (2018)CrossRef Gyulai, D., Pfeiffer, A., Nick, G., Gallina, V., Sihn, W., Monostori, L.: Lead time prediction in a flow-shop environment with analytical and machine learning approaches. IFAC-PapersOnLine 51, 1029–1034 (2018)CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Pfeiffer, A., Gyulai, D., Kádár, B., Monostori, L.: Manufacturing lead time estimation with the combination of simulation and statistical learning methods. Procedia CIRP 41, 75–80 (2016)CrossRef Pfeiffer, A., Gyulai, D., Kádár, B., Monostori, L.: Manufacturing lead time estimation with the combination of simulation and statistical learning methods. Procedia CIRP 41, 75–80 (2016)CrossRef
14.
go back to reference Öztürk, A., Kayalıgil, S., Özdemirel, N.E.: Manufacturing lead time estimation using data mining. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 173, 683–700 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef Öztürk, A., Kayalıgil, S., Özdemirel, N.E.: Manufacturing lead time estimation using data mining. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 173, 683–700 (2006)MathSciNetCrossRef
15.
go back to reference Alenezi, A., Moses, S.A., Trafalis, T.B.: Real-time prediction of order flowtimes using support vector regression. Comp. Oper. Res. 35, 3489–3503 (2008)CrossRef Alenezi, A., Moses, S.A., Trafalis, T.B.: Real-time prediction of order flowtimes using support vector regression. Comp. Oper. Res. 35, 3489–3503 (2008)CrossRef
16.
go back to reference Mori, J., Mahalec, V.: Planning and scheduling of steel plates production. Part I: estimation of production times via hybrid Bayesian networks for large domain of discrete variables. Comp. Chem. Eng. 79, 113–34 (2015) Mori, J., Mahalec, V.: Planning and scheduling of steel plates production. Part I: estimation of production times via hybrid Bayesian networks for large domain of discrete variables. Comp. Chem. Eng. 79, 113–34 (2015)
17.
go back to reference Schuh, G., Prote, J.-P., Molitor, M., Sauermann, F., Schmitz, S.: Databased learning of influencing factors in order specific transition times. Procedia Manuf. 31, 356–362 (2019)CrossRef Schuh, G., Prote, J.-P., Molitor, M., Sauermann, F., Schmitz, S.: Databased learning of influencing factors in order specific transition times. Procedia Manuf. 31, 356–362 (2019)CrossRef
18.
go back to reference Schuh, G., Prote, J.-P., Sauermann, F., Franzkoch, B.: Databased prediction of order-specific transition times. CIRP Annals. 68, 467–470 (2019)CrossRef Schuh, G., Prote, J.-P., Sauermann, F., Franzkoch, B.: Databased prediction of order-specific transition times. CIRP Annals. 68, 467–470 (2019)CrossRef
19.
go back to reference Windt, K., Hütt, M.-T.: Exploring due date reliability in production systems using data mining methods adapted from gene expression analysis. CIRP Annals. 60, 473–476 (2011)CrossRef Windt, K., Hütt, M.-T.: Exploring due date reliability in production systems using data mining methods adapted from gene expression analysis. CIRP Annals. 60, 473–476 (2011)CrossRef
20.
go back to reference Bandara, W., Gable, G.G., Rosemann, M.: Factors and measures of business process modelling: model building through a multiple case study. Eur. J. Inf. Syst. 14, 347–360 (2005)CrossRef Bandara, W., Gable, G.G., Rosemann, M.: Factors and measures of business process modelling: model building through a multiple case study. Eur. J. Inf. Syst. 14, 347–360 (2005)CrossRef
21.
go back to reference van der Aalst, W.: Process mining: discovering and improving Spaghetti and Lasagna processes. In: 2011 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Data Mining (CIDM), pp. 1–7 (2011) van der Aalst, W.: Process mining: discovering and improving Spaghetti and Lasagna processes. In: 2011 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Data Mining (CIDM), pp. 1–7 (2011)
22.
go back to reference Rozinat, A., Jong, I.S.M. de, Gunther, C. W., van der Aalst, W.M.P.: Process mining applied to the test process of wafer scanners in ASML. IEEE Trans. Sys. Man Cybern. Part C (Appl. Rev.) 39, 474–79 (2009) Rozinat, A., Jong, I.S.M. de, Gunther, C. W., van der Aalst, W.M.P.: Process mining applied to the test process of wafer scanners in ASML. IEEE Trans. Sys. Man Cybern. Part C (Appl. Rev.) 39, 474–79 (2009)
23.
go back to reference Park, J., Lee, D., Zhu, J.: An integrated approach for ship block manufacturing process performance evaluation: case from a Korean shipbuilding company. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 156, 214–222 (2014)CrossRef Park, J., Lee, D., Zhu, J.: An integrated approach for ship block manufacturing process performance evaluation: case from a Korean shipbuilding company. Int. J. Prod. Econ. 156, 214–222 (2014)CrossRef
24.
go back to reference Tu, T.B.H., Song, M.: Analysis and prediction cost of manufacturing process based on process mining. In: 2016 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Management Science and Application (ICIMSA), pp. 1–5 (2016) Tu, T.B.H., Song, M.: Analysis and prediction cost of manufacturing process based on process mining. In: 2016 International Conference on Industrial Engineering, Management Science and Application (ICIMSA), pp. 1–5 (2016)
25.
go back to reference Pospíšil, M., Mates, V., Hruška, T., Bartík, V.: Process mining in a manufacturing company for predictions and planning. Int. J. Adv. Softw. 6(3 & 4), 2013 (2013) Pospíšil, M., Mates, V., Hruška, T., Bartík, V.: Process mining in a manufacturing company for predictions and planning. Int. J. Adv. Softw. 6(3 & 4), 2013 (2013)
26.
go back to reference Knoll, D., Reinhart, G., Prüglmeier, M.: Enabling value stream mapping for internal logistics using multidimensional process mining. Expert Syst. Appl. 124, 130–142 (2019)CrossRef Knoll, D., Reinhart, G., Prüglmeier, M.: Enabling value stream mapping for internal logistics using multidimensional process mining. Expert Syst. Appl. 124, 130–142 (2019)CrossRef
27.
go back to reference Becker, T., Intoyoad, W.: Context aware process mining in logistics. Procedia CIRP 63, 557–562 (2017)CrossRef Becker, T., Intoyoad, W.: Context aware process mining in logistics. Procedia CIRP 63, 557–562 (2017)CrossRef
28.
go back to reference Wallis, R., Erohin, O., Klinkenberg, R., Deuse, J., Stromberger, F.: Data mining-supported generation of assembly process plans. Procedia CIRP 23, 178–183 (2014)CrossRef Wallis, R., Erohin, O., Klinkenberg, R., Deuse, J., Stromberger, F.: Data mining-supported generation of assembly process plans. Procedia CIRP 23, 178–183 (2014)CrossRef
29.
go back to reference Wirth, R., Hipp, J.: CRISP-DM: Towards a standard process model for data mining. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on the Practical Applications of Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp. 29–39 Wirth, R., Hipp, J.: CRISP-DM: Towards a standard process model for data mining. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on the Practical Applications of Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, pp. 29–39
30.
go back to reference Fayyad, U., Piatetsky-Shapiro, G., Smyth, P.: From data mining to knowledge discovery in databases. AI Mag. 17, 37 (1996) Fayyad, U., Piatetsky-Shapiro, G., Smyth, P.: From data mining to knowledge discovery in databases. AI Mag. 17, 37 (1996)
31.
go back to reference van der Aalst, W., Adriansyah, A., Medeiros: Process Mining Manifesto. In: Business Process Management Workshops, pp. 169–94 (2012) van der Aalst, W., Adriansyah, A., Medeiros: Process Mining Manifesto. In: Business Process Management Workshops, pp. 169–94 (2012)
32.
go back to reference Mitchell, T. M.: Machine Learning. Singapore (1997) Mitchell, T. M.: Machine Learning. Singapore (1997)
33.
go back to reference Kass, G.V.: An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of categorical data. Appl. Stat. 29, 119 (1980)CrossRef Kass, G.V.: An exploratory technique for investigating large quantities of categorical data. Appl. Stat. 29, 119 (1980)CrossRef
34.
go back to reference Therneau, T. M., Atkinson, E. J.: An introduction to recursive partitioning using the RPART routines (1997) Therneau, T. M., Atkinson, E. J.: An introduction to recursive partitioning using the RPART routines (1997)
Metadata
Title
Combining Process Mining and Machine Learning for Lead Time Prediction in High Variance Processes
Authors
M. Welsing
J. Maetschke
K. Thomas
A. Gützlaff
G. Schuh
S. Meusert
Copyright Year
2021
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-62138-7_53

Premium Partners