Conflict in the Horn of Africa: The Ogaden War of 1977

The nexus of environmental insecurity, disasters, and conflict have become an essential paradigm in security planning, policy, and analyses. The U.S. National Intelligence Council warns that the likelihood of environmentally triggered conflict will increase in the coming decades. Nonetheless, many scholars dismiss this outlook. History appears to support their position because these problems have typically been resolved using peaceful, diplomatic or economic means. Furthermore, it is difficult to establish clear cause–and–effect links between disasters, environmental stress, and armed conflict. However, the security landscape has changed decisively. This chapter suggests that continued peaceful resolution of potential conflicts with an environmental component is incongruous with the realities of the emerging national security landscape. First, climate change and demographic factors are degrading environments and magnifying the effects of environmental degradation and resource shortages beyond the management capacity of many states. Second, the proliferation of failing states has singularly reduced the potential for diplomatic resolution in many regions. Finally, competition for essential resources has been intensified by population growth. Thus, I argue that environmental factors will likely provide a tipping point for regions that already manifest severe environmental degradation and civil unrest; and these insidious problems can be exacerbated by disasters or other short–term climate shocks. The 1977 Ogaden War is one such example and is used as a case study to illustrate these dynamics. An analytical framework is used to illustrate the factors of environmental change, non–sustainable practices, human activity, and governance in Ethiopia during the 1970s to demonstrate their role in triggering the Ogaden War.