Demography of Russia

This book describes the unique Russian experience of the dynamics and factors determining demographic trends. To do so we: (1) collected numerous earlier studies and explored data in the Russian State Archive of the Economy, which became publicly available after the collapse of the Soviet Union and is still largely unexplored; (2) used available microdata from household surveys conducted in Russia since 1994; and (3) analyzed official statistics published by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service.

This chapter provides: (1) an overview of the statistical systems and methods of maintaining population statistics in the Russian Empire, the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation: (2) population statistics in territorial units comparable to the Russian Federation based on primary materials; and (3) a general view of long-term population dynamics from the late imperial era to the new Russian Federation. There is a large gap between research dealing with population during the imperial period and that which examines the period after the October Revolution, since few studies utilized primary data in investigating population figures of the imperial era.

During the twentieth century Russian women were assigned the triple role of social and political activists, workers, caregivers, and mothers. This chapter offers an overview of the main steps undertaken, first by the Soviet and later by the modern Russian governments, to influence family formation models and fertility levels, to improve the demographic situation between 1917 and 2015. The overview pays close attention to such measures of demographic policy as: marriage and divorce regulation; support of families through family benefits and the tax system; reconciliation of family and work spheres (maternity/paternity leave, workplace flexibility measures); fertility promotion; childbearing and childcare support; and rare reproductive health protection initiatives.

The chapter addresses the dynamics of marriage and divorce rates and the determinants of getting married and divorced in the period 1994–2014 in Russia. The chapter provides an overview of current statistical trends, theoretical considerations, and a review of existing empirical studies of contemporary marriage and divorce in Russia. Finally, it describes tested empirical models and results from a regression analysis of marriage and divorce determinants. Russian demographic changes are discussed in relation to global shifts in married life, which is becoming more flexible and diverse. In many European countries, as females become more career oriented and more independent they become less tolerant of unsuccessful marriages. Is this global trend relevant to Russian society? Do children still prevent divorce among Russian couples? How much do alcohol and smoking affect marriage prospects in Russia? These are the questions answered in this chapter.

This chapter is dedicated to fertility in Russia, in particular the probability of giving birth to the first child among women of fertile age (15–49) in 2000–2014 (the births of the higher order are investigated in Chap. 6). After a discussion of historical trends in fertility rates in Russia and of the theoretical background to childbirth determinants, we study the most important individual characteristics in women associated with a higher probability of having a first child. Second, we focus on a sub-sample of women living with a partner in registered or non-registered marriages and investigate whether the impact of individual characteristics changes when a partner’s characteristics are introduced into the set of explanatory characteristics. Third, recalling the transitional nature of the period under consideration, we address the role of uncertainty and insecurity on decisions to give birth. While in the Soviet period holding a job was not only a right but an obligation, unemployment and non-standard (e.g. temporary) employment appeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The share of temporary and part-time jobs has been expanding in Russia since the mid-1990s. To investigate the role of objective and subjective insecurity in the labour market on the probability of a first child birth, we extend the set of explanatory variables with type of contract, tenure, size of the enterprise, fear of losing a job and other characteristics.

This chapter reveals the predictors for the birth of second and third children in Russia. The necessary but difficult return of Russian women to the labor market decreases the chances of having second and subsequent children. However, high wages and stable employment encourage further childbirth planning. The probability of having further children increases when a female is secure about either her husband’s income or her own position in the labor market. The chapter discusses modern theoretical considerations on high order births in Russia and Europe and then tests the empirical models based on the nationally representative RLMS-HSE panel household survey data for 2000–2009.

This chapter uses previous research to identify determinants of mortality rates, an economic variable that affects the size of Russia’s population.

It concluded that factors such as a deterioration in levels of medical care or an increase in environmental pollution could not easily explain the rise in mortality rates throughout the Soviet era and the fluctuating mortality rates seen after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The analysis explored the relationship between Russians and alcohol, which had been described anecdotally in literary works, the media, and so on, and demonstrated the significance of alcohol consumption as a factor exerting a decisive influence on long-term changes in mortality rates and the probability of death in Russia.

This chapter examines regional economic conditions and their effects on interregional population redistribution patterns in Russia. After reviewing striking changes in population flows before and after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, an application of the gravity model on population migration in Russia is presented using a newly obtained interregional in- and out-migration flow matrix from 1990 to 2013, which were supplied by Rosstat (formerly Goskomstat). The analysis compared factors affecting migration patterns in the Soviet era to modern Russia, focusing on geographical factors, specifically, the attractiveness of resource-mining regions. The analysis clearly showed major changes in the effect of governmental investment in determining migration flow before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

This book has dealt with the phenomenon of domestic factors pertaining to Russia, such as birth rates, death rates, and interregional migration within the Russian Federation, which affect Russia’s total population and the regional distribution of its population. What has been ignored is the external factor of international migration, which mainly takes the form of migration between those countries that comprised the former Soviet Union, and the impact of this needs to be discussed.