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Water Resources Management

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02-12-2016

Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios

Authors: Jew Das, Nanduri V. Umamahesh

Published in: Water Resources Management | Issue 15/2016

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Abstract

Evaluating the impact of climate change at river basin level has become essential for proper management of the water resources. In the present study, Godavari River basin in India is taken as study area to project the monthly monsoon precipitation using statistical downscaling. The downscaling method used is a regression based downscaling termed as fuzzy clustering with multiple regression. Among the atmospheric variables simulated by global circulation/climate model (GCM) mean sea level pressure, specific humidity and 500 hPa geopotential height are used as predictors. 1^o × 1^o gridded rainfall data over Godavari river basin are collected from India Meteorological Department (IMD). A statistical relationship is established between the predictors and predictand (monsoon rainfall) to project the monsoon rainfall for the future using the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) over IMD grid points under the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) scenarios of Fifth Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP 5). Downscaling procedure is applied to all 25 IMD grid points over the basin to find out the spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for the future scenarios. For 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios results show an increasing trend. For scenario 8.5 rainfall showed a mixed trend with rainfall decreasing in the first thirty years of prediction and then increasing gradually over the next sixty years.

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Title: Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios
Authors: Jew Das
Nanduri V. Umamahesh
Publication date: 02-12-2016
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Published in: Water Resources Management / Issue 15/2016
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-016-1549-6

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