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2020 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

16. Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation at the National Bank of Belgium: Why and How to Implement It in a Central Bank

Author : Etienne Lavigne

Published in: Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The management of central bank foreign exchange reserves is a topic in which best practices do not remain constant but evolve. For a number of countries, the international reserves have become a significant national asset. For other countries, the reserves are still seen in the context of monetary policy implementation. In most cases, however, the reserves are higher today than they were 10 years ago. Furthermore, new capital markets have opened up and a broader range of financial instruments have been added to the universe of acceptable reserves assets. In all cases, the task of managing these reserves has changed and become more complex. At the same time, public interest has increased and reserves management activities—and their resulting returns—have become more visible. The asset management units within central banks, therefore, do not only have responsibilities towards their own senior management. They are also market participants and public servants. This attention is both legitimate and important. But in all this, their day-to-day portfolio management activities are primarily guided by the traditional trilogy of objectives, i.e. “safety first”, then “liquidity” and finally “return”. These objectives have guided reserves managers over the years and are still valid. But they need an update and an extension in order to meet new multi-faceted challenges. This chapter seeks to show one possible way forward.

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
Fama (1970).
 
2
Ang et al. (2009).
 
3
Chaos is a behaviour of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.
 
4
Overly optimistic expected returns could be a sign of future disappointment.
 
5
The dashboard, inspired by an article by Clewell et al. (2018), has been developed with T. Provoost from the National Bank of Belgium (NBB).
 
6
Depending on the factor regime (low, medium, high), the strategy return is calculated for a period of 24 months (forward).
 
7
As we are looking to signals triggering further analysis, we have a preference to use the probability rate (with a high level of confidence) instead of the return expectation (average) of the strategy.
 
8
An example of simplified dashboard and its interpretation are provided in Annex 17.1.
 
9
See also individual chapters in Part V.
 
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Metadata
Title
Dynamic Strategic Asset Allocation at the National Bank of Belgium: Why and How to Implement It in a Central Bank
Author
Etienne Lavigne
Copyright Year
2020
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-43457-1_16