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2020 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

“Energy, Renewables Alone?”

Author : Graham T. Reader

Published in: Sustaining Resources for Tomorrow

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

At the dawn of the twenty-second century, the grandchildren of those born at the start of the twenty-first century will be having their own children and the global population could have reached 11.2 billion. At such levels, the world’s energy demands could be 124% higher than in 2017. How can this increased demand be met? It is highly unlikely that traditional fossil fuels will be able to meet these future wants and needs because of their continuing depletion rates. Moreover, the accumulative amounts of carbon dioxide produced, since the start of the British Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century, by the burning of such fuels can be correlated with increasing rises in global surface temperatures. It is these rises which have led to the growing public concerns about the detrimental impact of anthropogenic activity on climate change. Consequently, although fossil fuels provide almost 90% of today’s energy demand, additional forms of energy will be required for the future. But what will these be? A study by the Stanford University group, based on the energy scenarios of 139 countries, predicted that all their energy needs could be met by renewable forms by 2050. Whatever the accuracy of such predictions, the underlying assumption that all countries will buy into the wholly renewable scenario is highly optimistic. The World Energy Council, in their ‘hard-rock’ energy transition scenario for 2060, has suggested that the availability of local resources and the concomitant political pressures will prevent global collaboration on energy use and climate change issues. Thus, while the eventual transition away from the dominance of fossil fuel energy is inevitable, exactly how and when this will happen to remain matters of conjecture. The current development emphasis on alternative energy sources that are considered to be sustainable and renewable will likely continue. However, will such sources ever be able to meet 100% of the future global energy needs in the absence of carbon-based fuels, let alone the increasing demand for energy? In this chapter, the candidate energy sources, which are considered by some, if not all, to be renewable, are discussed against a background of the growing acceptance of climate change, government and regional energy policies, and associated incentives in an attempt to address the question, ‘Renewables Alone,’ at least for the remainder of this century.

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Footnotes
1
Net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are achieved when anthropogenic CO2 emissions are balanced globally by anthropogenic CO2 removals over a specified period [4].
 
2
Featured on the BBC–PBS TV series ‘Poldark.’
 
3
Op. cit Reference [17], EME 831[6].
 
4
Op. cit Reference [4].
 
5
IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
 
6
Author comment, essentially the basis for ‘Greenhouse’ effect.
 
7
Op. cit. Reference [52].
 
8
Such as asteroid collisions, super-volcanic eruptions, cascading earthquakes, etc.
 
9
Op. cit. Reference [68].
 
10
Op. cit. Reference [55].
 
11
Op. cit. Reference [28] p. 958.
 
12
The Jacobsen paper [81] was originally published online in 2008, so thirty years hence is 2038.
 
13
Germany is phasing out nuclear energy by about 2022 as part of its Energiewende policy.
 
14
Op. cit Reference [28].
 
15
Last accessed 6-2-2019.
 
16
A climate change scholarly article search for 2015–2018 listed 576,000.
 
17
Op. cit [28], page ix.
 
18
In addition, the California State Government also includes battery storage, but this is more of a zero-carbon source than a renewable source.
 
19
For example, ‘The Waterkeeper Alliance fights for every community's right to drinkable, fishable, swimmable water’.
 
20
Op. cit [127]. The emission data were determined using the IHA-UNESCO tool G-Res.
 
21
As of March 2019.
 
22
Ibid. 133.
 
23
Ibid. [137] p. 21.
 
24
A fuller description of Fig. 13 is given by Manomet [118] p. 6.
 
25
The measure can be applied to all types of renewable and low-carbon energy sources and technologies.
 
26
Ibid. [150] p. 73.
 
27
In the USA, these include degraded and contaminated lands, former coal, and mineral mining sites and are defined by the USEPA as ‘Superfund’ or ‘Brownfield’ lands.
 
28
Op. cit [137, p.5]. In 2008, the US Electrical Power system had three large electrical grids the WECC, the Eastern Connection, and the ERCOT (Texas) grids.
 
29
Ibid. [169].
 
30
It is not just the presence of prevailing winds that is important, but the range of the wind speeds as wind power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed.
 
31
Named after German naval engineer and physicists Albert Betz, although the English automotive engineer Frederick Lanchester had derived the ‘Law’ some 5 years before Betz and the Russian engineer Nikolay Zhukowsky published the same result just before Betz.
 
32
Based on the annual US energy consumption of 4110 TWh.
 
33
Op. cit., Reference [3].
 
34
REN21 is an international nonprofit association and is based at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Paris.
 
35
BP 2040 report Op. cit [194].
 
36
Teams of climate scientists, economists, and energy systems modelers have built a range of five new ‘pathways’ (SSP) that examine how global society, demographics and economics might change over the next century. These will be used to update the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report.
 
37
Kelly McParland, “Why will the carbon taxers stop now?” Article published by the National Post which appeared in the Windsor Star page NP 2, 9 April 2019.
 
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Metadata
Title
“Energy, Renewables Alone?”
Author
Graham T. Reader
Copyright Year
2020
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27676-8_1