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Water Resources Management
Published in: Water Resources Management 15/2013

01-12-2013

Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic

Authors: Martin Hanel, Magdalena Mrkvičková, Petr Máca, Adam Vizina, Pavel Pech

Published in: Water Resources Management | Issue 15/2013

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Abstract

An ensemble of fifteen regional climate model (RCM) simulations has been used to estimate the climate change impacts on runoff and several drought characteristics for 250 basins in the Czech Republic. The scenario series of precipitation and temperature have been derived with four simple statistical downscaling methods (SDMs): the delta change and bias correction method, both in two alternatives considering the changes/biases in the mean, and in the mean and variance. Bootstrap resampling has been used to assess the effect of sampling variability and the differences in the estimated changes in runoff obtained by different SDMs were evaluated. Further simplification of the SDMs (spatial-average changes/biases and ensemble-average changes in precipitation and temperature) have been considered. It was shown, that given the spread between the projections of individual RCM simulations and the sampling variability, the differences in the estimated changes in mean runoff between the SDMs are not very large. The same partly holds also for the effect of spatial averaging. In general, the SDMs accounting for variability have led to smaller decrease (or larger increase) in runoff and the decrease was also smaller for bias correction methods than in the case of delta change methods. In contrast to changes in mean runoff, significant differences between the estimates based on different SDMs were found for the drought characteristics. In addition, the averaging of the changes in precipitation and temperature over the RCMs resulted in much stronger decrease in runoff than indicated by ensemble average changes in runoff.
previous article Differential Evolution for Prediction of Longitudinal Dispersion Coefficients in Natural Streams
next article A System-based Paradigm of Drought Analysis for Operational Management

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Metadata
Title
Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic
Authors
Martin Hanel
Magdalena Mrkvičková
Petr Máca
Adam Vizina
Pavel Pech
Publication date
01-12-2013
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Water Resources Management / Issue 15/2013
Print ISSN: 0920-4741
Electronic ISSN: 1573-1650
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0466-1

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