6. Expediting Transition Towards HELE Coal-Fired Electricity Generation Technologies in Southeast Asia: A Comparative Economic Analysis of HELE and Subcritical Coal-Fired Technologies

To decarbonise the electricity generation sector under the International Energy Agency’s 2 °C scenario, electricity generation from less efficient subcritical coal plants needs to be completely phased out by 2050. In addition, large potential exists in the Southeast Asia region for the deployment of high-efficiency, low-emission (HELE) electricity generation technologies. A cost–benefit analysis of HELE technologies against the less efficient subcritical electricity generation plants is thus carried out to find a persuasive scenario supporting a quicker transition from subcritical stations towards HELE technologies in the region. A levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) analysis is carried out for both the coal-fired technologies under four potential policy scenarios. To evaluate the LCOEs, scenario 1 does not take into consideration any carbon pricing or costs associated with the desulphurisation (deSO_x) and denitrification (deNO_x) facilities. Scenario 2 (scenario 3) incorporates carbon pricing (costs associated with the deSO_x and deNO_x facilities), while scenario 4 includes both carbon pricing and costs associated with the deSO_x and deNO_x facilities. A novelty of this study is that it includes advanced ultra-supercritical (A-USC) plants, and a sensitivity analysis is performed under each scenario to evaluate the uncertainty affecting the future coal prices on coal plants with 20- and 25-year lifespans. This study demonstrates that HELE technologies are competitive against the subcritical plants under all four scenarios, and both the technologies derive benefit from lifetime extensions and low coal prices. It is revealed that future deployments of HELE technologies can be expedited by factoring in carbon pricing in the LCOE costs of coal-fired power plants under scenario 2. It thus necessitates strengthening the carbon pricing policy for coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia to support a quicker transition from less efficient subcritical stations towards HELE coal-fired technologies.