Explaining Green Party Support in the 2019 European Parliamentary Elections: A Test of Four Hypotheses

Here we test four theoretical explanations for Green party affinity in the European Union and demonstrate that all four have significant, independent influence. We find that religion—particularly of the orthodox, practicing, Christian variety—clearly suppresses Green support, except perhaps among committed Protestants. Social structure also accounts for some backing as well, with Green parties attracting younger, well-educated citizens with comfortable social standing, who live in less densely populated areas. Even greater influence comes from a New Politics division between materialist and post-materialist voters. Post-materialists, who not only prioritize the environment over the economy but also support progressive social policies, are most likely to feel close to Green parties. So do those favoring European integration and welcoming immigrants—in short, “cosmopolitans.” In Eastern Europe, where the supply of Green parties is limited, supporters generally resemble the pan-European profile, but are concentrated among those breaking with materialist and traditionalist social norms: they are “moderns” who reject many of the political and social conventions of their post-communist societies. In that sense, they look a lot more “West European” than many of their national compatriots.