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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

2. Foresight for STI: What and Why

Authors : Ian Miles, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov

Published in: Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The term Foresight has long been applied to futures work, not least in H.G. Wells’ call for “Professor of Foresight” in the 1930s, and in studies for the US government (involving Joseph Coates among others). But as the previous chapter noted, “Foresight” has become prevalent as a description of futures-related activities only in the last couple of decades. Consultancies, University courses, research programmes, and all kinds of institutional activities are now badged as being Foresight activities. The rise of “Foresight” to prominence stems from the pioneering studies of John Irvine and Ben Martin in the 1980s.

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previous chapter Introduction
next chapter Initiation: Scoping and Managing ForSTI
Footnotes
1
The evolving application of the term, and the confusions consequent upon this, is traced out in some detail in Miles (2010).
 
2
See Irvine and Martin (1984), and Martin and Irvine (1989).
 
3
The introduction of research evaluation techniques, and efforts to reorganize links between public research and private industry, were also part of this effort.
 
4
Conflict among two French ministries as to whom should be leading in foresight and prioritisation did not help here, either. An alternative Critical Technologies approach was more securely established.
 
5
For a detailed account of the background and origins of the exercise see Martin (2010).
 
6
E.g. the way in which results were aggregated in providing feedback to respondents tended to stress majority opinions, rather than explore the outliers.
 
7
Cf. Miles (2008). The UK was host to one of the leading journals in the field—Futures—but lacked the sorts of large scale enquiry into the Year 2000 that appeared in other countries. It is interesting, too, to compare the lively Science Fiction scenes of the era in the UK and other countries—British SF featured “cosy catastrophes” that can be seen as reflections upon imperial decline. (see Aldiss and Wingrove 1986; Greenland 1983) The Entropy Exhibition: Michael Moorcock and the British ‘New Wave’ in Science Fiction. London: Routledge & Keegan, 1983.
 
8
We discuss the exploratory-normative distinction in the next chapter.
 
Literature
Aldiss, B., & Wingrove, D. (1986). Trillion year spree: The history of science fiction. London: Atheneum.
Freeman, C. (1987). Technology policy and economic performance: Lessons from Japan. London, New York: Frances Printer Publishers.
Greenland, C. (1983). The entropy exhibition: Michael Moorcock and the British ‘New Wave’ in science fiction. London: Routledge & Keegan Paul.
Irvine, J., & Martin, B. (1984). Foresight in science: Picking the winners. London: Pinter.
Martin, B. (2010). The origins of the concept of “foresight” in science and technology: An insider’s perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, 1438–1447.CrossRef
Martin, B., & Irvine, J. (1989). Research foresight: Priority-setting in science. London: Pinter.
Miles, I. (2008). From futures to foresight. In L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, & R. Popper (Eds.), The handbook of technology foresight (pp. 24–43). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
Miles, I. (2010). Interactive impacts—Foresight as a product, service and coproduction process. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, technology and innovation policy for the future: Potentials and limits of foresight studies (pp. 60–82). Berlin: Springer.
Miles, I., & Keenan, M. (Eds.). (2002). Practical guide to regional foresight in the United Kingdom. Luxembourg: European Commission. EUR 20478. ISBN 92 894 4682 (versions of this report were prepared for every EU15 country except Luxembourg). Retrieved January 14, 2016, from http://​cordis.​europa.​eu/​foresight/​cgrf.​htm
Saritas, O. (2013). Systemic foresight methodology. In D. Meissner, L. Gokhberg, & A. Sokolov (Eds.), Science, technology and innovation policy for the future: Potentials and limits of foresight studies (pp. 83–117). Berlin: Springer.CrossRef
Metadata
Title
Foresight for STI: What and Why
Authors
Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas
Alexander Sokolov
Copyright Year
2016
Book
Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-32572-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-32574-3

Copyright Year: 2016

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32574-3_2

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