Skip to main content
Top
Published in:
Cover of the book

2018 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

1. Getting Started

Author : David Jamieson Bolder

Published in: Credit-Risk Modelling

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

The first order of business is to highlight the scope of the book, its organization, and the underlying principles associated with its construction. This chapter thus begins by explaining the purview of credit-risk perspectives adopted, or scope, in the following discussion. The subsequent chapters, to be clear, consider static, structural and reduced-form, credit-risk models in a portfolio setting from a predominately risk-management perspective. Most of the ideas, however, with a few changes such as choice of probability measure, are readily applied to the pricing context. It then proceeds to highlight the three thematic elements of the book’s organization: models, diagnostic tools, and parameter estimation. This structure was designed to naturally incorporate the challenges of model selection and management through multiplicity of perspective. It also seeks to promote transparency and accessibility of presentation and practical concreteness. The chapter, therefore, concludes with a brief introduction to a compact portfolio example, which will be used throughout the remainder of the book. Preliminary analysis is performed on this portfolio to help understand its characteristics and foreshadow the forthcoming analytic elements.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Footnotes
1
Jorion (2006), for example, is an excellent starting point.
 
2
Indeed, there exist financial contracts, such as credit-default swaps, that provide insurance against the default of specific obligor.
 
3
In an insurance setting, one examines the uncertainty of the occurrence of a particular risky event and asks: how much would be required, as a premium, to insure that risk. In both cases, we seek to find how much compensation is required to accept the financial risk. The slight additional complexity in the non-life insurance setting is that a single contract may simultaneously handle a number of perils.
 
4
When computing prices, one is also typically interested in hedging these positions. This leads to a related problem of estimating the sensitivity of a given price to a change in an underlying risk factor. Since this is also typically performed under the pricing measure, we consider this part of the pricing problem.
 
5
To confuse matters, some authors refer to the standard deviation of the default-loss distribution, or σ(L), as the unexpected loss. Other use this term to describe economic capital. To avoid unnecessary confusion, we will try to avoid this term and refer to loss volatility.
 
6
An expectation, in its most fundamental sense, is an integral taken with respect to a probability measure.
 
7
Risk managers thus operate in the same world as statisticians, econometricians, and forecasters.
 
8
See Karatzas and Shreve (1998, Chapter 2) or Billingsley (1995, Chapter 37) for much more thorough and rigorous discussion on Brownian motions, Wiener processes, and their applications.
 
9
In an insurance setting, we can think of default as being basically equivalent to a claim.
 
10
See Christoffersen (1998), Kupiec (1995), or Bolder (2015, Chapter 12) for a more detailed discussion of this area.
 
11
The collection of joint events follows a binomial distribution, which in the limit by the central limit theorem, converges to a Gaussian law.
 
12
For the reader unaware of this fact, we will demonstrate this claim in Chap. 7.
 
13
This market information can, and is, still used in a risk-management setting, but it requires the analyst to grapple with thorny risk-preference questions.
 
14
All programming language choices, like most things in life, involve making trade-offs between relative advantages and disadvantages. See Aruoba and Fernández-Villaverde (2014) for an interesting and useful benchmarking exercise among scientific computing languages.
 
15
The specific implementation is the so-called beta-binomial mixture model; this approach, along with a variety of others are described in Chap. 3.
 
16
The specific model choice is the Gaussian threshold method; the family of threshold models are introduced in Chap. 4.
 
17
It is, indeed, possible to also perform this decomposition for the expected-shortfall measure. While we have excluded it in this discussion, because it is quite repetitive, the necessary techniques along with many practical examples are addressed in Chap. 7.
 
Literature
go back to reference Ang, A. (2013). Asset management: A systematic approach to factor investing. Madison Avenue, New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Ang, A. (2013). Asset management: A systematic approach to factor investing. Madison Avenue, New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Aruoba, S. B., & Fernández-Villaverde, J. (2014). A comparison of programming languages in economics. University of Maryland.CrossRef Aruoba, S. B., & Fernández-Villaverde, J. (2014). A comparison of programming languages in economics. University of Maryland.CrossRef
go back to reference Bielecki, T. R., & Rutkowski, M. (2002). Credit risk: Modeling, valuaton and hedging (1st edn.). Berlin: Springer-Verlag. Bielecki, T. R., & Rutkowski, M. (2002). Credit risk: Modeling, valuaton and hedging (1st edn.). Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
go back to reference Billingsley, P. (1995). Probability and measure (3rd edn.). Third Avenue, New York, NY: Wiley. Billingsley, P. (1995). Probability and measure (3rd edn.). Third Avenue, New York, NY: Wiley.
go back to reference BIS. (2001). The internal ratings-based approach. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements. BIS. (2001). The internal ratings-based approach. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements.
go back to reference BIS. (2004). International convergence of capital measurement and capital standards: A revised framework. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements. BIS. (2004). International convergence of capital measurement and capital standards: A revised framework. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements.
go back to reference BIS. (2005). An explanatory note on the Basel II IRB risk weight functions. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements. BIS. (2005). An explanatory note on the Basel II IRB risk weight functions. Technical report. Bank for International Settlements.
go back to reference Black, F., & Scholes, M. S. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637–654.CrossRef Black, F., & Scholes, M. S. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81, 637–654.CrossRef
go back to reference Bolder, D. J. (2015). Fixed income portfolio analytics: A practical guide to implementing, monitoring and understanding fixed-income portfolios. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.CrossRef Bolder, D. J. (2015). Fixed income portfolio analytics: A practical guide to implementing, monitoring and understanding fixed-income portfolios. Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.CrossRef
go back to reference Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating interval forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 841–862.CrossRef Christoffersen, P. F. (1998). Evaluating interval forecasts. International Economic Review, 39(4), 841–862.CrossRef
go back to reference Derman, E. (1996). Model risk. Goldman Sachs Quantitative Strategies Research Notes. Derman, E. (1996). Model risk. Goldman Sachs Quantitative Strategies Research Notes.
go back to reference Duffie, D. (1996). Dynamic asset pricing theory (2nd edn.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Duffie, D. (1996). Dynamic asset pricing theory (2nd edn.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
go back to reference Harrison, J., & Kreps, D. (1979). Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod security markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 20, 381–408.CrossRef Harrison, J., & Kreps, D. (1979). Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod security markets. Journal of Economic Theory, 20, 381–408.CrossRef
go back to reference Harrison, J., & Pliska, S. (1981). Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 11, 215–260.CrossRef Harrison, J., & Pliska, S. (1981). Martingales and stochastic integrals in the theory of continuous trading. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, 11, 215–260.CrossRef
go back to reference Jorion, P. (2006). Value at risk: The new benchmark for managing financial risk. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited. Jorion, P. (2006). Value at risk: The new benchmark for managing financial risk. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited.
go back to reference Karatzas, I., & Shreve, S. E. (1998). Methods of mathematical finance. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag. Karatzas, I., & Shreve, S. E. (1998). Methods of mathematical finance. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
go back to reference Kupiec, P. H. (1995). Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models. The Journal of Derivatives, 3, 73–84.CrossRef Kupiec, P. H. (1995). Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models. The Journal of Derivatives, 3, 73–84.CrossRef
go back to reference Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risky asset and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13–37.CrossRef Lintner, J. (1965). The valuation of risky asset and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47(1), 13–37.CrossRef
go back to reference Merton, R. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29, 449–470. Merton, R. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance, 29, 449–470.
go back to reference Mina, J. (2005). Risk budgeting for pension plans. Riskmetrics Group Working Paper. Mina, J. (2005). Risk budgeting for pension plans. Riskmetrics Group Working Paper.
go back to reference Mina, J., & Xiao, J. Y. (2001). Return to RiskMetrics: The evolution of a standard. New York: RiskMetrics Group Inc. Mina, J., & Xiao, J. Y. (2001). Return to RiskMetrics: The evolution of a standard. New York: RiskMetrics Group Inc.
go back to reference Morgan/Reuters, J. (1996). RiskMetrics — technical document. New York: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company. Morgan/Reuters, J. (1996). RiskMetrics — technical document. New York: Morgan Guaranty Trust Company.
go back to reference Sharpe, W. F. (1963). A simplified model for portfolio analysis. Management Science, 9(2), 277–293.CrossRef Sharpe, W. F. (1963). A simplified model for portfolio analysis. Management Science, 9(2), 277–293.CrossRef
go back to reference Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442. Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442.
go back to reference Treynor, J. L. (1961). Market value, time, and risk. Unpublished Manuscript. Treynor, J. L. (1961). Market value, time, and risk. Unpublished Manuscript.
go back to reference Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information (2nd edn.). Chesire, CT: Graphics Press LLC. Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information (2nd edn.). Chesire, CT: Graphics Press LLC.
Metadata
Title
Getting Started
Author
David Jamieson Bolder
Copyright Year
2018
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-94688-7_1