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2024 | Book

Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Data, Models, and Applications

Authors: Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang

Publisher: Springer Nature Singapore

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About this book

This book is the first to focus on the global flow of funds (GFF), providing an introduction to its fundamental concepts and establishing a theoretical framework for analysis. It connects the flow of funds within domestic economies to that of the rest of the world, offering a comprehensive analysis of GFF dynamics. This study enhances GFF statistics, enabling the assessment of global financial stability from both national and cross-border sectoral perspectives. The GFF data provide valuable insights into analyzing interconnectivity across borders and an understanding of global financial interdependencies. By examining the data sources and reconstructing the statistical framework to establish the GFF statistical matrix, this book conducts a case study to evaluate financial risks and influences in G20 countries. Subsequently, it connects the GFF matrix with sectoral account data and the flow of funds to establish the sectoral from-whom-to-whom financial stock matrix (SFSM). The SFSM aims to establish a new framework for conducting multi-country, multi-sector analysis within the G20, with a special emphasis on examining the national and cross-border exposures of sectors in China, Japan, and the USA. This involves constructing country-specific financial networks and connecting them based on cross-border exposures. The systematic analysis results effectively showcase the financial interconnections among G20 countries within the GFF and shed light on the attributes of external shocks and internal influences. The focus is particularly on the changes in risk exposure between China and the USA concerning their external assets and liabilities and the implications of economic decoupling of these dynamics.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Chapter 1. Measuring Global Flow of Funds: Statistical Framework, Data Sources, and Approaches
Abstract
This chapter aims to provide a measurement for the global flow of funds (GFF), as discussed in four portions. First, the Chapter will define GFF to determine its statistical domains. Second, the document sets out the ideas and existing data sources and integrates them to measure GFF. These concepts and data sources are reflected in the balance of payments, international investment position (IIP), the Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS), the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, the consolidated banking statistics (CBS), and the rest of the world (ROW) account. Third, the balance sheet approach is used to break down the ROW into IIP components. An external statistics’ matrix (metadata) exercise shows the available external-sector financial data based on the IIP concept. As the outcome of the study, this chapter compiled GFF matrix with the pattern of “from-whom-to-whom.” Fourth, data science is explored to integrate the data sources, improve the timeliness of the existing data transmission, and illustrate how the GFF matrix operates.
Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang
Chapter 2. Global Flow of Funds as a Network: Cross-Border Investment in G20
Abstract
This study measures global financial stability by constructing a global flow of funds (GFF) matrix model based on its inherent market mechanisms. We discuss the basic concept of GFF, integrate the data sources, establish a GFF statistical matrix, which can be used to evaluate the financial risks and influences among its members, and estimate bilateral exposures between countries for three different financial instruments within and across the G20 economies. Then, we use financial network analysis to construct the financial relationships between countries. Moreover, we employ the network theory to discuss an analytical method for the GFF and use countries in the G20 as the research sample to discuss the network centrality, mutual relationships, and the financial risk of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and cross-border bank credit among the United States, Japan, and China. This study establishes a GFF statistical matrix and introduces the network theory into the GFF analysis, which opens a new field for measuring and applying GFF.
Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang
Chapter 3. Structural Changes in China–US External Flow of Funds: Statistical Estimates Based on the VEC Model
Abstract
This study constructs an analytical framework of the external flow of funds (EFF) to observe the process and obstacles of China and the United States (US) decoupling, examining the China–US structural relationship in savings and investment imbalance during 1980–2022. We observe the issues between China and the US in the external financial assets and liabilities by stock data, focusing on the external adjustment mode in 2008–2022. We construct a vector error correction model to calculate the quantitative relationship between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends of the EFF in China and the United States and explore the basic causes of economic conflicts between the two sides. This chapter discusses the risk of China–US economic decoupling and US debt, the strategic challenges both sides face, and the prospect of countermeasures.
Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang
Chapter 4. A Global Flow of Funds Perspective on Debt, Assets, and Imbalances
Abstract
This chapter establishes an analytical framework for examining the global flow of funds (GFF); expanding on the concept, research object, and analytical method for comprehending GFF. The structural changes of the G20, especially China–United States (US) decoupling, are examined alongside the possibility of a debt crisis using stock data to analyze the GFF matrix (GFFM) from 2018 to 2022. The financial network is used to analyze the basic characteristics and risks in the debt market between China (CN) and the US. Finally, CN’s and the US’ debt securities (DS) market positions and mutual financing relationships are analyzed using financial network technology. It also statistically estimates the impact of debt risk transmission. The issues of China–US are also observed in external financial assets and liabilities by stock data. By compiling the GFFM and using the financial network, we measure the risk exposure changes between CN and US external assets and liabilities, centrality, asset influence and liability sensitivity, and debt risk.
Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang
Chapter 5. A Network Analysis of the Sectoral From-Whom-To-Whom Financial Stock Matrix
Abstract
This study enhances global flow of funds (GFF) statistics for assessing global financial stability at the national and cross-border sectoral levels. The investigation involves scrutinizing data sources and reconstructing the statistical framework to establish the sectoral from-whom-to-whom financial stock matrix (SFSM). The SFSM is constructed using sectoral account data, complemented by international statistics from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, International Investment Position, and Bank for International Settlements. The SFSM specifically focuses on counterparty national and cross-border exposures of sectors in China, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It is designed to create country-specific financial networks, interconnecting each country-level network based on cross-border exposures. Analytical results systematically reveal bilateral exposures among the four countries in the GFF, identifying sectoral interlinkages, characteristics of overseas investment, external shocks, and internal influences. Furthermore, this study introduces an eigenvector decomposition to analyze the effects and provided an analytical description of the shock dynamics and propagation process.
Nan Zhang, Yiye Zhang
Metadata
Title
Global Flow of Funds Analysis
Authors
Nan Zhang
Yiye Zhang
Copyright Year
2024
Publisher
Springer Nature Singapore
Electronic ISBN
978-981-9710-29-4
Print ISBN
978-981-9710-28-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-97-1029-4