Introduction
Overview
Review of literature
Methodology
Data sources
Data for | Levels of respective variables | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Households (from households table) | Household size: 1 adult > 1 adult | Annual income: < £25,000 £25,000–49,999 ≥£50,000 | Household head occupation: Manual Skilled manual White collar clerical Professional | Car ownership: No access to car Own or access to one or more than one car |
Employed adults (from individual table) | Gender: Male Female | Work status: Full time (FT) Part time (PT) | ||
Journeys (from journeys table) | Journey purpose (for outbound purpose): Home-based commuting (HBW) All shopping (Sh) All other purposes (Oth) | Trip frequency: Trips/week | Journey distance: Miles/trip | Journey time: min/trip |
Access to transport services at household location (from household table) | Maximum frequency of local bus services: Level 1: < 1 bus per day Level 2: at least 1 bus/day Level 3: at least 1/hour Level 4: at least 1/half hr Level 5: at least one every quarter hour | Walk to bus stop (min): Level 1: < 6 Level 2: 7–10 Level 3: 11–15 Level 4: 16–20 Level 5: 21–30 Level 6: 31–60 Level 7: > 60 | Walk time to rail station (min): Level 1: < 6 Level 2: 7–10 Level 3: 11–15 Level 4: 16–20 Level 5: 21–30 Level 6: 31–60 Level 7: > 60 | |
Built environment characteristics at household location (from post code unit level-PSU-table) | Area type: Central London Inner London Outer London Metropolitan areas outside London Outer Conurbation Urban big > 250,000 population Urban large 100,000–250,000 population Urban medium 25,000–100,000 population Rural areas < 25,000 population | Population density (persons/hectare): Level 1: < 3.01 Level 2: 3.01–10 Level 3: 10.01–20 Level 4: 20.01–30 Level 5: 30.01–35 Level 6: 35.01–40 Level 7: 40.01–45 Level 8: 45.01–50 Level 9: 50.01–60 Level 10: > 60 |
Main findings
Latent classes of the built environment
Latent class number | Tentative names |
---|---|
LC1 | Metropolitan Core Dwellers |
LC2 | Outer Metropolitan Dwellers |
LC3 | Suburban Dwellers |
LC4 | Exurban Dwellers |
LC5 | Rural Dwellers |
Indicators | Latent class | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-Metropolitan Core Dwellers (N = 8756) | 2-Outer Metropolitan Dwellers (N = 18,573) | 3-Suburban Dwellers (N = 41,887) | 4-Exurban Dwellers (N = 23,601) | 5-Rural Dwellers (N = 15,821) | |
Panel 3a: unconditional probabilities | |||||
0.08 | 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.14 | |
Panel 3b: conditional probabilities | |||||
3b-1: area type | |||||
Central London | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 |
Inner London | 0.61 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000 |
Outer London | 0.21 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.000 |
Metropolitan areas outside London | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.000 |
Outer conurbation | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.000 |
Urban areas > 250,000 population | 0.11 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.003 |
Urban areas 100,000–250,000 population | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.000 |
Urban areas 25,000–100,000 population | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.19 | 0.000 |
Rural areas < 25,000 population | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.66 | 0.997 |
3b-2: population density (person/hectare) | |||||
Under 3 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.28 | 0.97 |
3.01–10 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.03 |
10.01–20 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 0.00 |
20.01–30 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
30.01–35 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
35.01–40 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
40.01–45 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
45.01–50 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
50.01–60 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Over 60 | 0.81 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
3b-3: bus frequency | |||||
Less than once a day | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.049 |
At least once a day | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.044 | 0.315 |
At least once every hour | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.116 | 0.322 | 0.457 |
At least once every 30 min | 0.073 | 0.212 | 0.463 | 0.482 | 0.157 |
At least once every 15 min | 0.920 | 0.779 | 0.414 | 0.151 | 0.022 |
3b-4: walk time to bus stops | |||||
60 min and more | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.009 |
31–60 min | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.035 |
21–30 min | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.035 |
16–20 min | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.008 | 0.032 |
11–15 min | 0.005 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.022 | 0.041 |
7–10 min | 0.074 | 0.107 | 0.081 | 0.116 | 0.116 |
6 min or less | 0.920 | 0.881 | 0.906 | 0.850 | 0.731 |
3b-5: walk time to rail station | |||||
60 min and more | 0.003 | 0.028 | 0.087 | 0.174 | 0.507 |
31–60 min | 0.071 | 0.250 | 0.287 | 0.263 | 0.245 |
21–30 min | 0.147 | 0.194 | 0.217 | 0.165 | 0.075 |
16–20 min | 0.137 | 0.141 | 0.131 | 0.112 | 0.051 |
11–15 min | 0.191 | 0.146 | 0.117 | 0.113 | 0.039 |
7–10 min | 0.274 | 0.145 | 0.103 | 0.105 | 0.043 |
6 min or less | 0.175 | 0.095 | 0.058 | 0.067 | 0.041 |
Covariates | Built environment latent classes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-Metropolitan Core Dwellers | 2-Outer Metropolitan Dwellers | 3-Suburban Dwellers | 4-Exurban Dwellers | 5-Rural Dwellers | |
Male | 1.016 | 0.92*** | 0.905*** | 0.918*** | Reference latent class |
Full time working | 1.486*** | 1.324*** | 1.252*** | 1.166*** | |
1 adult households | 2.683*** | 1.434*** | 1.281*** | 1.257*** | |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | 0.926 | 0.822*** | 0.94 | 0.895* | |
Skilled manual workers | 0.363*** | 0.59*** | 0.766*** | 0.78*** | |
Professionals | 0.572*** | 0.582*** | 0.693*** | 0.757*** | |
Low Income HHs | 1.021 | 1.097* | 0.992 | 0.858*** | |
High Income HHs | 1.558*** | 0.993 | 0.785*** | 0.86*** |
Direct effect | Constrained model | LC1 | LC2 | LC3 | LC4 | LC5 | LC1 versus LC5 Wald test P value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model threshold for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | − 1.509*** | − 1.518*** | − 1.68*** | − 1.846*** | − 2.773*** | ||
Male | 0.014 | − 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.022 | 0.043 | 0.09* | – |
Full time working | − 0.003 | − 0.067 | − 0.015 | 0.021 | − 0.015 | − 0.035 | – |
1 adult households | − 0.523*** | − 0.355*** | − 0.5*** | − 0.509*** | − 0.543*** | − 0.735*** | 0.000 |
Manual workers | − 0.428*** | − 0.281*** | − 0.38*** | − 0.389*** | − 0.547*** | − 0.553*** | 0.018 |
Skilled manual workers | 0.259*** | 0.332*** | 0.388*** | 0.242*** | 0.048 | 0.037 | 0.000 |
Professionals | 0.239*** | 0.189*** | 0.244*** | 0.352*** | 0.126** | 0.261*** | 0.387 |
Household income less £25 k | − 0.511*** | − 0.274*** | − 0.449*** | − 0.588*** | − 0.533*** | − 0.521*** | 0.000 |
Household income more than £50 k | 0.295*** | 0.188*** | 0.454*** | 0.364*** | 0.475*** | 0.317*** | 0.078 |
Fuel price | − 0.003*** | − 0.015*** | − 0.005*** | − 0.001 | 0.002 | − 0.004 | 0.000 |
Direct influence | LC1 | LC2 | LC3 | LC4 | LC5 | LC1 versus LC5 Wald test P value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel 6a. Direct influences on commuting | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 16.4*** | 12.3*** | 9.6*** | 7** | 12.7*** | |
Male | 4.9*** | 10.1*** | 11.6*** | 13*** | 9.4*** | 0.000 |
Full time working | 11.1*** | 14.2*** | 15.9*** | 19.6*** | 21.3*** | 0.000 |
1 adult households | − 1.3 | 1.6* | 2.9*** | 5*** | 3.9*** | 0.000 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | 0.8 | − 1.8** | − 3.1*** | − 3.7*** | − 6.5*** | 0.000 |
Skilled manual workers | − 0.7 | − 1.5* | − 4.1*** | − 8.2*** | − 8.6*** | 0.000 |
Professionals | 2** | 3.5*** | 2.8*** | 2** | 1 | 0.047 |
Household income less £25 k | − 1.5 | − 2.5*** | − 4*** | − 5.8*** | − 5.4*** | 0.000 |
Household income more than £50 k | 0.9 | 3.5*** | 5.6*** | 4.7*** | 4.7*** | 0.000 |
Fuel price | − 0.1* | − 0.1** | − 0.1*** | 0 | − 0.1** | 0.989 |
Have car in household | 1.2 | 3.2*** | 5.3*** | 8.3*** | 11.1*** | 0.000 |
Panel 6b. Direct influences on shopping | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 5.2*** | 7*** | 8*** | 12.4*** | 20.6*** | |
Male | − 1.2*** | − 1.8*** | − 2.6*** | − 3.5*** | − 4.7*** | 0.000 |
Full time working | − 0.6* | − 0.4* | − 0.4 | − 1.4*** | − 1** | 0.074 |
1 adult households | 0.6** | 1*** | 0.8*** | − 0.1 | 1.1* | 0.207 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | − 0.1 | − 0.7** | − 1.7*** | − 1.2*** | − 0.8 | 0.511 |
Skilled manual workers | 0.1 | − 0.6** | − 1.5*** | − 0.2 | − 1.8*** | 0.000 |
Professionals | 0.2 | 0.4 | − 0.4 | 1** | − 0.9 | – |
Household income less £25 k | − 0.3 | − 0.8*** | − 0.6** | − 0.5 | − 1.1** | 0.570 |
Household income more than £50 k | − 0.3 | − 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | − 0.3 | – |
Fuel price | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | − 0.1*** | 0.000 |
Have car in household | 2.2*** | 3.3*** | 4.9*** | 5.3*** | 6.5*** | 0.000 |
Panel 6c. Direct influences on other purposes combined | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 42.4*** | 27.5*** | 49.7*** | 52.2*** | 50.2*** | |
Male | 4.2** | 10.1*** | 16.5*** | 18.7*** | 18.8*** | 0.000 |
Full time working | 3.6* | − 1.8 | 2.8*** | 5.4*** | 6.3*** | 0.031 |
1 adult households | 18.7*** | 17.3*** | 19.1*** | 21.1*** | 23.6*** | 0.000 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | − 13.3*** | − 13.3*** | − 17*** | − 21.6*** | − 30.4*** | 0.000 |
Skilled manual workers | − 10.3*** | − 14.7*** | − 15.8*** | − 22.1*** | − 29*** | 0.000 |
Professionals | 5.8* | 14.2*** | 15.6*** | 15.8*** | 14.8*** | 0.000 |
Household income less £25 k | − 9.2*** | − 6.8*** | − 9.8*** | − 11.8*** | − 13.8*** | 0.000 |
Household income more than £50 k | 14.1*** | 10.7*** | 15.8*** | 18*** | 21.1*** | 0.000 |
Fuel price | − 0.2 | 0 | − 0.3*** | − 0.3*** | − 0.1** | 0.028 |
Direct influence | LC1 | LC2 | LC3 | LC4 | LC5 | LC1 versus LC5 Wald test P value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel 7a. Direct influences on commuting | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 102.6*** | 94.5*** | 76.4*** | 70.4*** | 63.3*** | |
Male | 12.2*** | 14.6*** | 14.7*** | 13.7*** | 8.9*** | 0.352 |
Full time working | 48.5*** | 47*** | 36.1*** | 40.4*** | 40.4*** | 0.000 |
1 adult households | − 17.5*** | − 8.7*** | 0 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.000 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | 11** | − 4.3* | − 2.2* | − 1.2 | − 10.5*** | 0.000 |
Skilled manual workers | − 4.5 | − 8.8*** | − 9.6*** | − 13.4*** | − 15.1*** | 0.000 |
Professionals | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | − 1.3 | – |
Household income less £25 k | − 4.1 | − 3.2 | − 4.8*** | − 6.4*** | − 6.2*** | 0.000 |
Household income more than £50 k | − 5.7* | 6.8*** | 6.9*** | 5.7*** | 4.4*** | 0.571 |
Fuel price | − 0.2 | − 0.3*** | − 0.2*** | − 0.2*** | − 0.2*** | 0.989 |
Have car in household | − 18.1*** | − 24.6*** | − 20.8*** | − 16.5*** | − 3.3 | 0.000 |
Panel 7b. Direct influences on shopping | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 54.9*** | 51.4*** | 56.2*** | 58.1*** | 71.5*** | |
Male | − 8.9*** | − 9.6*** | − 10*** | − 10.5*** | − 11.8*** | 0.286 |
Full time working | − 3.2** | − 3.1*** | − 3.7*** | − 5.2*** | − 4.3*** | 0.202 |
1 adult households | 2.9** | 3.3*** | 1.5** | 0.2 | 3.1** | 0.970 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | − 3.1* | − 2.5** | − 3*** | − 2.7** | − 2.8** | 0.575 |
Skilled manual workers | − 3 | − 2.7*** | − 3.1*** | − 2.4*** | − 4.9*** | 0.002 |
Professionals | − 1.7 | 1.2 | − 2.5*** | 0.7 | − 1 | – |
Household income less £25 k | 1.4 | − 1.2 | 0.3 | − 0.8 | − 0.1 | – |
Household income more than £50 k | − 1.8 | − 1.5* | 0.5 | − 1.2 | − 0.1 | – |
Fuel price | − 0.2** | − 0.1* | − 0.1*** | − 0.1** | − 0.2*** | 0.989 |
Have car in household | 3.2*** | − 0.5 | − 0.8 | − 0.6 | 0.5*** | 0.000 |
Panel 7c. Direct influences on other purposes combined | ||||||
Model intercept for the reference segment, which is represented by a female, part time working white collar clerical worker with more than one adults and a household income of 25–50 k per year | 226.5*** | 176.7*** | 179.2*** | 178.3*** | 167.4*** | |
Male | 2.3 | 14.2*** | 18.7*** | 20.8*** | 19.1*** | 0.000 |
Full time working | − 13.3*** | − 13.1*** | − 10.4*** | − 2.8 | − 1 | 0.000 |
1 adult households | 33.1*** | 34.3*** | 34.2*** | 38.4*** | 36.8*** | 0.543 |
Semi- or unskilled manual workers | − 37.2*** | − 30.5*** | − 35.3*** | − 37*** | − 52.7*** | 0.157 |
Skilled manual workers | − 25.1*** | − 35.6*** | − 35.8*** | − 42.7*** | − 48.6*** | 0.000 |
Professionals | 8.9* | 21.7*** | 21*** | 19.9*** | 21.8*** | 0.000 |
Household income less £25 k | − 10.1** | − 12.8*** | − 15.5*** | − 20.6*** | − 19.9*** | 0.000 |
Household income more than £50 k | 19.9*** | 15.4*** | 22.3*** | 25.8*** | 30.3*** | 0.000 |
Fuel price | − 0.5** | − 0.3** | − 0.6*** | − 0.6*** | − 0.4*** | 0.368 |
Have car in household | 24.3*** | 29.2*** | 44.1*** | 48.9*** | 59.4*** | 0.000 |
AIC | |
---|---|
Travel distance model | |
Constrained model | 1,506,408 |
Model allowing variations across classes | 1,505,235 |
Travel time model | |
Constrained model | 1,975,133 |
Model allowing variations across classes | 1,974,520 |
A comparison of travel choice identification: latent class versus area type and population density
AIC | |
---|---|
Travel distance model | |
Model (a)—area type | 809,024 |
Model (b)—latent class | 702,845 |
Travel time model | |
Model (a)—area type | 1,274,337 |
Model (b)—latent class | 1,168,718 |
Spatial mapping of the latent classes
Commuting distance and time elasticity with respect to fuel price
Part a) Information extracted from 2015 NTS reporta | |
Average unleaded petrol price (2002 to 2015) | 83 pence |
Percentage of travel distance for commuting by car | 70% |
Part b)Information derived from NTS data (2002 to 2015) | |
Average commuting distance (weekly) | 28.5 |
Average commuting time (weekly) | 79.67 |
Average employed person | |
---|---|
Part a) Coefficients for fuel price influences on commuting distance and time | |
Commuting distance | − 0.07*** |
Commuting time | − 0.21*** |
Part b) The effect implied by the coefficients of 10% increase in fuel price over all modes—absolute change | |
Commuting distance (miles per week) | − 0.581a |
Commuting time (minutes per week) | − 1.743 |
Part c) The effect of 10% increase in fuel price over all modes—percentage changeb | |
Commuting distance (miles per week) | − 2.04% |
Commuting time (minutes per week) | − 2.19% |
Part d) The effect of 10% increase in fuel price on car travel—percentage changec | |
Commuting distance (miles per week) | − 2.9% |
Commuting time (minutes per week) | − 3.1% |