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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

7. Imagination: Scenarios and Alternative Futures

Authors : Ian Miles, Ozcan Saritas, Alexander Sokolov

Published in: Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

In ForSTI, scenarios are systematic accounts of particular configurations of future possibilities—a scenario is a systematic account (we might say “appraisal”, and people often talk of “vision”) of a possible future state of affairs and the paths of development leading to it. There are many uses for scenarios in ForSTI, for example, to:

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previous chapter Intelligence: Delphi

next chapter Integration: Modelling

For an interesting discussion of the etymology, stressing Herman Kahn’s contribution, see http://english.stackexchange.com/questions/147450/what-is-the-real-history-of-the-word-scenario (accessed on: 17.04.2014).

There are many partial discussions of scenario approaches—for a rare presentation of a range of views from established practitioners, see the special issue of the journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 65, no. 1, September 2000, edited by Godet and Roubelat.

In at least one case , a 2 × 2 matrix was formed by a statistical appraisal—factor analysis—that grouped survey responses to a range of questions into two main dimensions that captured much of the variance (Rush and Miles 1989).

To continue a discussion of the exploratory-normative distinction, begun in Chap. 2: all scenarios are full of normative content—including the choice of “what if” and “trend rate” variables. Hopefully, too, they will encourage the analysts to explore options. Thus the terminology is misleading, but alternative descriptions such as “outward-bound” and “inner-directed”, have not taken root.

However, again the term has other meanings. For example, a computer simulation’s validity may be tested by a form of backcasting, where we take the data on the current situation, and run the model backwards to see if it accurately depicts historical events.

RAND researchers suggest (and provide some case studies to support the idea) that it is becoming possible to generate huge numbers of scenarios using computer models, and then to automatically examine how robust policies would be across different scenarios, and to find the most policy-relevant scenarios in terms of challenges posed. See Groves and Lempert (2007) and Lempert et al. (2003).

For example Tapio (2003) and Rush and Miles (1989).

A useful guide to several approaches, and to overall organisation of the approach, is provided by Rhydderch (2009).

A detailed and free guide to this approach has been prepared by Waverley Management Consultants (2007).

These attitudes have permeated as much as 95 % of the adult population, implying that potential problems of social exclusion are not a matter of concerns about PHS.

The authors have been very much inspired by work carried out by the Institute for Alternative Futures, using their versions of the archetypes approach. There are various ideas of where the approach was first developed, with the Hawaii Research Centre for Futures Studies suggested as a major influence in the 1970s. C.f. Bezold (2009).

This exercise is documented in a series of articles in a special issue of the journal Foresight, vol 4 no 4, in 2002 (Available at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/toc/fs/4/4, accessed on: 21.01.2016).

See the report of the PHS scenario workshops at http://www.phsForSTI.eu/reports (accessed on: 09.09.2014).

For instance, a series of basic roadmaps for specific applications of nanotechnology were developed before the main SSM workshop on this topic was conducted; they outlined the likely global development of these technologies, and enabled discussion in the workshop as to what might be accomplished within the UK. See Advisory Group On Nanotechnology (2002) New Dimensions for Manufacturing: A UK Strategy for Nanotechnology. London: Department of Trade and Industry, DTI Pub 6182 2k/06/02/NP, URN 02/1034, Originally published online at http://www.dti.gov.uk/innovation/nanotechnologyreport.pdf (but removed); now available at http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/taylor%20report.pdf; and Miles, I. & Jarvis, D. (2001), Nanotechnology – A Scenario for Success in 2006. Teddington, UK: HMSO. National Physical Laboratory Report Number: CBTLM 16 (available at: http://www.npl.co.uk/publications/nanotechnology-a-scenario-for-success-in-2006, accessed on: 14.01.2016). The initial roadmaps were regarded as confidential, and are not reproduced in these reports.

This naming of the scenario is less relevant in the success scenario approach.

Berkhout, F., & Hentin, J. (2002). Foresight futures scenarios: Developing and applying a participative strategic planning tool. GMI newsletter. Retrieved January 1, 2016, from http://greenleaf-publishing.com/productdetail.kmod?productid=416

Bezold, C. (2009). Jim Dator’s alternative futures and the path to IAF’s aspirational futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 123–134.

Coates, J. F., Mahaffie, J. B., & Hines, A. (1998). 2025: Scenarios of US and global society reshaped by science and technology. Greensboro: Oakhill Press.

Codagnone, C. (2009). Reconstructing the whole: Present and future of personal health systems. Report to European Commission from Framework Programme 7 project PHS2020. Available from http://www.ehealthnews.eu/images/stories/pdf/phs2020-book-rev16082009.pdf

Freeman, C., & Jahoda, M. (Eds.). (1978). World futures: The great debate. London: Martin Robertson.

Green, L., Popper, R., & Miles, I. (2005). From Seville to success: IST success scenario and policy priorities. In C. Pascu et al. (Eds.), Challenges and opportunities for IST research and applications (pp. 154–187). Bucharest: Academia Romana, Publishing House of Romanian Academy of Sciences. ISBN 973-27-1289-9.

Groves, D. G., & Lempert, R. J. (2007). A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 17, 73–85.CrossRef

Haegeman, K., Spiesberger, M., Veselitskaya, N., Sokolov, A., & Weiss, G. (2015). FTA supporting effective priority setting in multi-lateral research programme cooperation: The case of EU-Russia S&T cooperation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 101, 200–215.CrossRef

Institute of Innovation Research. (2003). Prospecting bioscience for the future of non-food uses of crops. Manchester Business School, Report to The Government Industry Forum on Non Food Uses of Crops. Retrieved September 9, 2014, from http://les1.man.ac.uk/cric/Andrew_McMeekin/biosciencenfc.htm

James, A., & Miles, I. (2010). Using scenarios to characterise complex policy interrelationships: The SANDERA Project. In B. Auffermann & J. Kaskinen (Eds.), Security in futures—Security in change (pp. 154–168). Turku: FFRC. FFRC eBOOK 5/(2011); ISBN 978-952-249-063-6; ISSN 1797-132. Retrieved from http://ffrc.utu.fi/julkaisut/e-julkaisuja/eTutu_(2011)_5.pdf#page=144

Lempert, R. J., Popper, S. W., & Bankes, S. C. (2003). Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Retrieved January 15, 2016, from http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626.html

Miles, I. (2005). Scenario planning. In UNIDO technology foresight manual, Volume 1: Organization and methods (pp. 168–193). Vienna: UNIDO. Retrieved January 18, 2016, from http://www.research.ro/img/files_up/1226911327TechFor_1_unido.pdf

Pascu, C., Compano, R., & Weber, M. (Eds.). (2005). Challenges and opportunities for IST research and applications. Bucharest: Publishing House of Romanian Academy of Sciences Academia Romana. Available from http://fistera.jrc.es/pages/books/content%20Challenges%20book/challenges%20book.htm

Ringland, G. (1998). Scenario planning: Managing for the future. Chichester: Wiley.

Rhydderch, A. (2009). Scenario planning: Guidance note. London: Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, Government Office for Science. Retrieved January 15, 2016, from http://www.dti.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/foresight_scenario_planning.pdf

Rush, H., & Miles, I. (1989). Surveying the social implications of information technology. Futures, 21(3), 249–262.CrossRef

Scase, R. (1999). Britain towards 2010: The changing business environment. London: Economic and Social Research Council (This was originally digitally available at: http://www.esrc.ac.uk/2010/docs/britain.html, but is no longer archived there; hard copies are retailed from usual sources.).

Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. New York: Doubleday.

Tapio, P. (2003). Disaggregative policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(1), 83–101.CrossRef

Wagar, W. W. (1991). The next three futures. London: Adamantine.

Waverley Management Consultants. (2007). Scenario planning toolkit. London: Department for Transport. Retrieved January 15, 2016, from http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140108140803/http:/www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/foresight_scenario_planning.pdf

Title: Imagination: Scenarios and Alternative Futures
Authors: Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas
Alexander Sokolov
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-32572-9

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-32574-3

Copyright Year: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32574-3_7

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