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Demography
Published in: Demography 4/2013

01-08-2013

Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections

Authors: Fanny Janssen, Leo J. G. van Wissen, Anton E. Kunst

Published in: Demography | Issue 4/2013

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Abstract

We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e 0) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970–2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e 0 (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e 0 for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e 0 in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.
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Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections
Authors
Fanny Janssen
Leo J. G. van Wissen
Anton E. Kunst
Publication date
01-08-2013
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Demography / Issue 4/2013
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Electronic ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

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