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2016 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Indonesia–China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Opportunities and Challenges

Authors : Yuki Fukuoka, Kiki Verico

Published in: Chinese Global Production Networks in ASEAN

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter aims to highlight the opportunities and challenges of Indonesia–China relations in the twenty-first century. Departing from the Cold War hostility, post-Suharto Indonesia has significantly strengthened its ties with China not only in the economic arena but also in the political and security arena. Looking at the evolution of economic relations, this chapter highlights that the growing ties with China have brought expanding opportunities for Indonesia, particularly in the form of China's investment, while at the same time exposing Indonesian manufacturers to greater economic competition. With particular attention to the implementation of the ACFTA, this chapter highlights that increased economic competition with China has driven segments of the Indonesian business sector to demand greater protectionism, deliberately provoking the perception of the ‘China threat’. It is emphasised that despite recent improvements, Indonesia–China relations have not entirely broken away from the difficult past as suspicions and sensitivity continue to characterise these relations. In fact, the perception of China's aggressive penetration in the Indonesian market, if not managed well, could combine with the long-standing resentments concerning the economic role of the Chinese minority to potentially destabilise the bilateral relationship.

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Appendix
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Footnotes
1
The first three paragraphs of this section rely on Sukma (2009a, b).
 
2
For an excellent analysis of the 1965 coup, see Anderson and McVey (1971).
 
3
Novotny (2010, pp. 194–200) similarly argues that Suharto’s growing confidence in Indonesia’s stability prompted him to facilitate the ‘defreezing’ of Indonesia–China relations.
 
4
It is worth recalling at this point that in preparing for the official restoration of diplomatic relations with China, the then Indonesian president, Suharto, still maintained that Indonesia ‘must remain alert to the possibility of a PKI revival after the normalisation of ties with China’ (The Jakarta Post, 27 February 1989).
 
5
For a concise discussion of East Asian developmental states, see Onis (1991). For example, in the case of preferential bank lending—a key instrument of state-led development in East Asia—while the Indonesian government prepared elaborate lists of priority categories, the Central Bank ‘not only had little idea of the purposes to which cheap finance was actually put, but lacked even a clear picture of whether subsidised loans even reached the target groups’ (MacIntyre 1994, p. 262).
 
6
In this respect, the experience of Indonesian footwear producers is indicative. An increasing number of Indonesian footwear firms have changed their businesses from manufacturing products to merely distributing manufactured goods imported from China. According to UN Comtrade, Indonesia was the world’s fifth largest footwear exporter in 1996, with a global market share of around 5 %. It fell to 10th place in 2009, with a 2 % share. During the same period, footwear products from China entered the Indonesian market due to market liberalisation (Standard Chartered 2013).
 
7
The industrial sector’s share of Indonesia’s total GDP has declined from 27.8 % in 2008 to 23.9 % in 2012 (Table 4).
Table 4
Proportion by sector (% of GDP) from 2003 to 2012
Sector
Agriculture and mining (%)
Manufacturing industry (%)
Utilities (electricity, gas and water) (%)
Services (construction, trade, transport and communication, finance and public administration, others) (%)
2003
23.5
28.3
1.0
47.3
2004
23.3
28.1
1.0
47.6
2005
24.3
27.4
1.0
47.4
2006
24.0
27.5
0.9
47.6
2007
24.9
27.0
0.9
47.2
2008
25.4
27.8
0.8
45.9
2009
25.9
26.4
0.8
47.0
2010
26.4
24.8
0.8
48.0
2011
26.6
24.3
0.8
48.3
2012
26.2
23.9
0.8
49.1
Source: Own calculation using ADB Statistic
 
8
For example, in an article that appeared in the country’s leading newspaper, The Jakarta Post, it was claimed that ‘most people are of the opinion that Indonesia’s agricultural products and manufacturing goods are extremely uncompetitive against China’s’. The same article also suggested that ‘instead of seeing the ACFTA as an instrument to strengthen the interdependence of the ASEAN region with China, many Indonesians see it as leading to cut-throat competition that will have negative impacts on the development of Indonesian economic capabilities in the long term’ (The Jakarta Post, 27 October 2010).
 
9
It is worth recalling at this point that previous studies found that in the context of ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA), trade creation (the replacement of expensive domestic production by cheaper imports from more efficient partner countries) is higher than trade diversion (the replacement of cheaper initial imports from lower-cost producers outside the union by imports from less efficient producers in member countries), thus facilitating increasing investment from more efficient member states to lower-cost members’ affiliates as production bases transferred (Urata and Okabe 2007).
 
10
This is particularly so given that Indonesia is now the most attractive destination of intra-ASEAN FDI, attracting around 47 % of the total intra-ASEAN FDI (Table 5). This indicates that Indonesia is well placed to attract further investment from China’s increasing economic engagement with ASEAN.
 
11
China’s investment in Indonesia’s mining sector is considered to be an important measure to secure a sustainable supply of raw materials required to support China’s manufacturing sectors (Kian Wie 2010).
 
12
It was suggested that small and medium enterprises that employ 97 % of the total workforce and contribute to more than half of country’s GDP were particularly hard pressed amidst the ‘invasion’ of Chinese products.
 
13
To be sure, their concerns were not entirely without reason. For example, according to the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik), non-oil-and-gas imports from China surged 55 % to USD2.79 billion within the first 2 months of the implementation of the ACFTA, a steep rise from USD1.8 billion in the corresponding period the year before (The Jakarta Post, 3 April 2010).
 
14
As Novotny’s (2010, pp. 212–218) analysis highlights, such a perception of China’s economic threat is widely shared by Indonesian foreign policy elites.
 
15
Personal communication with local journalists
 
16
Article 84 (1) of the law states that any trade arrangements (bilateral, regional and multilateral) need to be submitted to the DPR for approval within 90 working days after the signing. The word ‘after’ indicates that it has the potential to be rejected by the DPR. Indeed, Article 84 (3) states that the DPR decides whether or not a particular agreement requires parliamentary approval within 60 working days. Meanwhile, Article 84 (6) explicitly provides the DPR with the authority to ‘reject’ (menolak) the agreement if it could ‘threaten national interests’ (dapat membahayakan kepentingan nasional).
 
17
It was also suggested that the turn towards protectionism was linked to the 2014 parliamentary and presidential elections—laissez-faire economics is unpopular in Indonesia.
 
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Metadata
Title
Indonesia–China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century: Opportunities and Challenges
Authors
Yuki Fukuoka
Kiki Verico
Copyright Year
2016
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-24232-3_4