Institutional Partnerships in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Every year natural hazards cause significant loss of life, and set back economic and social development by years if not decades in many countries, particularly those with least resources. From 1980 to 2008, weather-, water- and climate-related hazards and conditions accounted for 90% of total number of disasters, 70% of the two million casualties, and 75% of total economic losses.

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), new scientific evidence has revealed that potential risks associated with weather-related hazards are on the rise, owing to the increasing frequency and severity of droughts, extreme temperatures, severe precipitation and severe storms, linked to climate variability and change. In addition, over the last five years the world has witnessed a number of “unusual” extreme events such as:

i. The severe cyclone storm GONU that affected Oman, Iran and the United Arab Emirates in 2007, noting that it was the second cyclonic storm making landfall in Iran in more than 100 years, since 1898,

ii. Tropical cyclone NARGIS the first such storm to hit Myanmar in 40 years resulted in death of over 140,000 people and estimated losses at nearly 3% of the national GDP for 2008, and;

iii. Tropical cyclone Catarina that affected Brazil in March 2004, was the first hurricane-intensity tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Atlantic Ocean.

Could these become more of the rule than the exception? Are new patterns of risks emerging? If countries are challenged with managing the current level of risk associated with these hazards; how can they address the increasing and changing patterns of risks, in the future?

However, as illustrated in Fig. 1.1, over the last five decades, while economic losses associated with hydro-meteorological hazards have increased, there has been a significant decrease in loss of life. This has been attributed to the development of effective early warning systems, based on advancements in monitoring and forecasting of weather-related hazards (Box 1.1, Box 1.2), combined with effective communication and emergency preparedness at national to local levels in several countries with a history of high-impact weather-related hazards, such as Cuba, Bangladesh, France, and the United States.

For more than 40 years, the Cuban Government has been investing material resources and human capital in the creation and improvement of its early warning system for tropical cyclones and other alert systems. As a result, the resolution of meteorological and hydrological monitoring systems has been strengthened through the acquisition of new equipment, the training of specialists and the development of working tools that improve understanding of the hazards. Plans have been refined and structures have been perfected to ensure their implementation along with the population’s preparation, at national to local levels. An extensive network of radio and television stations, newspapers and other facilities has been established to ensure the rapid dissemination of alert messages. Recently, local access and distribution points for early warnings have also been set up in communities at greater risk. Associated with the local administration centers, these outlets contribute to ensuring the timely transmission of information for the reduction of municipal risk. In summary, Cuba’s system has the following key components:

Since the 1970 cyclone that killed an estimated 300,000 people and the 1991 cyclone which took over 138,000 lives, significant strides have been made in planning and preparedness that have resulted in greatly reduced losses from subsequent storms in Bangladesh. Central to the Bangladesh Early Warning System is the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), developed and improved through the efforts of the Government of Bangladesh (GoB), United Nations, International Red Cross and the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society. The CPP utilizes over 42,000 volunteers along with a transceiver telecommunications network to ensure rapid delivery of warnings to the population at risk. The success of the CPP arises from its simplicity, attention to socio-cultural aspects, and its extensive community-based volunteer and communications network that expedite the delivery of cyclone warning messages produced by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Vital warning information from the BMD can be disseminated to responding agencies and the public at-risk in less than 15 minutes from the time of warning issuance to the beginning of evacuation orders. Evacuation of the population at risk to more than 2,000 storm shelters is expedited through a highly organized volunteer network at the village level.

Managing natural risks has been a major concern for France ever since the 1950s. The relevant mechanism, which initially focused on operational response on-site then on prevention, relied on specific weather forecasts tailored to the needs of each user. Following the storms of December 1999 whose severe impact could have been lessened by provision of better information to the public, it was decided to introduce a new mechanism that utilized a common language – a four-colour scheme reflecting different risk levels. This would be applied at the scale of the French département, the administrative division of the national territory which is best suited to planning and crisis management. It would also be applied on a 24-hour time frame that combined satisfactory forecasting reliability with sufficient advance warning for action.

Following the storms of December 1999, whose severe impact could have been lessened by better information of the public, the Ministry of the Interior, the Ministère de l’Ecologie, de l’Energie, du Développement Durable et de la Mer (MEEDDM) introduced a new mechanism relying on a common language: a four-colour scheme reflecting different risk levels, used at the scale of the French département, the administrative division of the national territory which is best suited to planning and crisis management, along with a 24-hour time frame combining satisfactory forecasting reliability with sufficient advance warning for action.

This simple common language allows the French weather service to disseminate widely its “potential risk” forecasts linked to meteorological criteria in the form of a “Vigilance map”. Information is transmitted simultaneously to civil defence authorities, national operators, the media and the general public. Even though this information is basically a meteorological forecast, this clear and unified signal triggers a preventive response which is accompanied, as need be, by status reports, personalized briefings and imagery in order to enable each decision-maker to react accordingly. As the general public receives clear risk information from the authorities accompanied by safety guidelines, it can also play a role in ensuring its security.

This mechanism, originally designed for five types of weather hazards, namely high winds, heavy precipitation, storms, snow/ice and avalanches, was broadened in 2003 to include heatwaves and intense cold episodes. In 2007, the parameter “heavy precipitation” was changed to “rains/flooding”, thanks to the operational cooperation with the flood prediction network. There are also some specific features in the overseas territories, mainly in relation to tropical cyclones, as presented in the Appendix. These developments reflect a commitment to improve the system, which has demonstrated its value in the implementation of the French policy for reducing the risk of natural disasters in France, and is now well known to French citizens: in 2008, a survey revealed that the Vigilance was known by 86 per cent out of a statistically significant sample of 2000 people.

The Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) operates a three-tiered warning management system (time dimension) that differentiates between five risk levels. The warning system is co-ordinated with disaster management authorities which, in Germany, is the responsibility of the Länder (States) so that its organisation is consequently very diverse. Warnings are provided to users through various channels. The general public is informed over the Internet. There are closed online user groups for fire brigades and the winter maintenance service. The DWD is committed to the single-voice principle, according to which only warnings issued by Germany’s National Meteorological Service should be binding for disaster mitigation purposes. The warning system is continuously updated and optimised. Using Bavaria as an example, this document illustrates the structural and organisational provisions underlying the “Special Severe Weather Emergency Plan”.

The United States began to develop its national early warning system in the late 1940s as part of the post-war effort to invest in reducing the impact of tropical cyclones, flooding, tornadoes, drought, winter storms, severe hail and wind, tsunamis and other hazards that threatened its citizens. Initial steps included the erection of a network of weather surveillance radars, the creation of regional river forecast centers and the development of a comprehensive, multi-agency emergency broadcast system. Those initiatives were followed by the creation of the National Response Framework, the Incident Command System, the multi-channel Emergency Alert System, and policies at the federal, state and local level that promoted broader hazard awareness, risk reduction and emergency preparedness.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service is authorized by statute and Executive Order to forecast and issue alerts and warnings associated with hydrometeorological events as well as tsunamis. This mission is achieved through dedicated, long-term partnerships with other federal agencies (most notably the United States Geological Survey, United States Army Corps of Engineers, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency), which leverage the expertise and infrastructure throughout the Federal Government. Simultaneously, the National Science Foundation and other federal and state-level funding sources promote university-led advancements in early warning methods and technology and training of young engineers, hydrologists, meteorologists, computer scientists, etc.

While the various hazard-specific early warning systems in the United States were not originally designed as a part of a single, multi-hazard system, they share common elements and are linked with the country’s varied emergency response systems. The National Response Framework guides the institutional coordination and cooperation associated with planning and response to major emergencies. Specific capabilities have been developed to address threats from low-probability/high-impact events such as tsunamis, tropical cyclones, earthquakes, volcanoes, and even terrorism.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) of the United States Department of Homeland Security in partnership with dozens of state and local emergency management agencies, 27 federal agencies, the private sector, the American Red Cross and other non-governmental organizations, plays a crucial role in assisting citizens to build, sustain, and improve the Nation’s capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards. FEMA’s coordination and cooperation with partner institutions often dictates the response to major emergency events. No other federal agency has a greater role than FEMA in helping the Nation mitigate and prepare for hazards.

Multi-hazard early warning systems are only as good as their weakest subsystem. Like many other countries, the United States has learned that unless its multi-hazard early warning system functions from “end-to-end”, avoidable losses and suffering may still occur. Its most spectacular lesson in recent years was Hurricane Katrina – a hazard scenario that was recognized well in advance. The failures in the Nation’s early warning system during that event are widely acknowledged to have occurred because of weaknesses in risk awareness, warning/communications, and response, despite strengths in forecasting. Other emergencies, especially major disasters such as Hurricane Andrew (1992), the Great Midwest Flood (1993), the Northridge Earthquake (1994), and the 9/11 Terror Attacks (2001), have inspired improvements in emergency preparedness, risk awareness, and hazard mitigation.

It is not necessary for these lessons to be painfully re-learned by others around the world. The National Weather Service hopes that this document improves global understanding in the good practices of institutional coordination and cooperation as they relate to multi-hazard early warning systems.

On 27 June 2008, Mr Hu Jintao, President of China, declared that China needs to develop a sustainable Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) with a focus on multi-agency coordination and cooperation at all levels of government, to develop a regional joint response capability, and to build an optimum multi-hazard monitoring and emergency response warning process by actively involving multi-agency participation in the decision-making process. This process should also encourage active public participation in response to climate change. Responding to the President’s direction and with the support of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau (SMB) enhanced its efforts to establish a comprehensive weather disaster prevention management system under the leadership of the Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG).

The CMA and SMG jointly support the Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) as a WMO demonstration project with ‘Multi-agency Response’ as the core. The project integrates diversified advanced technologies into a multi-hazard warning process, advancing improved multi-agency coordination and cooperation through a multi-link communication platform with responsible emergency response and rescue agencies. The MHEWS is organized around its “4+1” technical platforms and three-level standard system on multi-agency coordination and cooperation. The technical platforms are: Multi-Hazard Detection & Monitoring, Forecast & Warning Information Generation, Multi-agency Coordination and Cooperation Support, Dissemination and User Application Platforms, and the Multi-Hazard Information Database. The three-level standard systems comprise: a Multi-agency Coordination and Cooperation Standard System, Safety Community Standard System and Regional Joint Defence Standard System. The MHEWS provides technical support to the Shanghai Emergency Response Platform and has been introduced into the Emergency Response Headquarters of the Shanghai Municipal Government (SMG). It provides forecast and warning services to the SMG’s emergency response command centre, which is responsible for public emergency response actions and the delivery of emergency related information. The network will be fully operational to provide emergency response services to Shanghai Expo2010. Following Expo2010, WMO will conduct an assessment of the MHEWS.

Remarkable progress has been made. The dissemination platform has entered the testing stage; the forecast and warning information generation and multi-agency coordination and cooperation platforms are entering the development stages, with some modules already in operation. Warning subsystems for city traffic safety, heat wave and human health, power and energy security, and bacterial food poisoning are operational. There has been significant progress with grass roots level delivery of warning messages and with integration of information into the city grid management. Breakthroughs have been made in multi-agency coordination and cooperation. “The emergency response plan of Shanghai Municipality for rain, snow and freezing weather disasters”, and “The emergency response plan of Shanghai Municipality for heavy fog disasters” have been distributed by the general office of SMG.

Japan is located on the “Pacific Ring of Fire” where seismic and volcanic activity is high. As a result, the country has a relatively large number of earthquakes and volcanoes in relation to the very small area of its territory which occupies only 0.25% of the world’s land mass. Due to its geographic, topographic and meteorological conditions, Japan is also prone to natural disasters such as typhoons, torrential rains and heavy snow.

The impact of natural disasters can be considered to be determined by two factors. One is a natural factor – the magnitude of natural phenomena (e.g. the scale and intensity of earthquakes and typhoons). The other is a social factor – vulnerability to hazards than can cause disasters. While it is almost impossible for people to control the natural factor, the social factor can be controlled or modified by human intervention. Consequently, Japan has made a special effort to reduce society’s vulnerability to disasters since the end of the World War II. In order to reduce Japanese society’s vulnerability to disasters and enhance its ability for disaster countermeasures, Japan has established and strengthened a disaster prevention scheme, undertaken protective measures, enhanced weather forecast technology, and installed communications infrastructure to disseminate disaster prevention information, based on lessons learnt from disasters that have occurred almost every year.

The basic scheme for disaster prevention in Japan was established following the Ise-wan Typhoon in 1959, which resulted in more than five thousands victims. Comprehensive disaster countermeasures were established and implemented based on the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act, enacted in 1961 just after the Ise-wan typhoon disaster. Subsequent to the Ise-wan typhoon disaster, Japan did not experience any disasters which resulted in more than a thousand victims until 1995 when the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake occurred. This earthquake not only caused more than six thousand casualties but also resulted in complete and unprecedented paralysis of urban cities. After the earthquake, Japan modified its various Acts and plans, established new systems and reinforced initial response capability for disaster prevention. In particular, observation systems that can accurately detect disaster risks in real-time have been progressively improved in order to establish early warning systems that facilitate the early evacuation of residents and the response activities of disaster management organizations, thereby reducing disaster damage. Organizations involved in disaster reduction, particularly the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), use 24-hour systems to carefully monitor various natural phenomena and weather conditions. In addition to disseminating observed information related to natural phenomena, the JMA also issues a wide range of forecasts, warnings and advisories regarding severe weather events, earthquake ground motions, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions.

Earlier chapters of this book have detailed seven good practices in Early Warning Systems (EWS) for hydrometeorological and other hazards that have proven effective in reducing losses from such hazards. The seven cases presented in this book encompass examples from different governance and institutional frameworks, levels of economic development, geographic and climatic regimes, including developed countries such as Germany, France, Japan and the United States of America, the developing country of Bangladesh, the island nation of Cuba and the mega-city of Shanghai-China. Despite the socio-economic, cultural, environmental differences and individualized approaches to the operation of their EWS, all share the common characteristic that their EWS are successful in reducing losses of life and property from hydrometeorological and related hazards within their respective jurisdictions. This chapter synthesizes lessons learned and analyses key principles common to the success of these systems. These Principles are considered to be universally applicable, being not only independent of individual countries’ socio-economic, cultural, political and institutional conditions but also allowing for EWS operations that are adapted to local circumstances. They draw attention to fundamental lessons, considerations, systemic issues and practical challenges that need to be addressed when undertaking the task of implementing or improving EWS in any jurisdiction. It is hoped that these principles will prove useful to governments and various agencies who are seeking to establish or strengthen their EWS within their own borders.