International Perspectives on Climate Change

Agricultural systems have begun to proactively address vulnerability and climate risks as challenges and opportunities to develop climate change adaptation measures that protect the natural resources and the ecosystems services on which they depend. However, in most regional conditions, the level of understanding of local changes in hazard exposure caused by climate change, the geographic and spatial distribution of vulnerability, as well as underlying socioeconomic factors remains limited. Here, it is analyzed how in regional agro-environmental processes underline the need for a convergence among the assessments of local climate risk, agricultural vulnerability and adaptive capacities with national and international policy guidance and climate change science, particularly in Latin America.

Analysis of Trans-boundary Risks in the Pilcomayo and the Paraguay River Basins could generate relevant technical information about the management of water resources in the proposed basins. The Pilcomayo River Commission (Paraguay, Bolivia and Argentina) has conducted important studies in the water resources field of the Pilcomayo Basin that are currently stored in the Commission’s data base. Less information is available for the case of the Paraguay River Basin, especially in the area of study: the confluence area with the Paraná River. The study presents a border management tool for managing the risks associated with extreme events water in rivers shared between Argentina and Paraguay, in order to contribute to an efficient coordination work between local agencies that manage emergencies. This study also aims to identify the main risks that can occur in urban and rural environments of potential areas to be affected by floods, droughts and other natural and anthropogenic phenomena such as erosion, sedimentation and pollution from various sources. A web platform has been developed to collect all available information regarding these Rivers. Alpha 3 CapWEM project (Capacity development in Water Engineering and Environmental Management) in which eight Universities from European and Latin American countries collaborate on improving higher education in the fields of Water and Environmental Management has provided the framework for the present study.

The study presents an analysis of droughts using monthly rainfall data, from January 1961 to December 2011, from 11 rain gauges located in Paraguay and Northern Argentina. The characterization of the drought events used the standardized precipitation index (SPI) applied at different time scales (3, 6, and 12 consecutive months). The temporal variability of the droughts in the study period was analyzed in terms of changes in their frequency—regardless of the severity, has the frequency of droughts increased or decreased?—and in their severity—are we experiencing more severe droughts or not? The results achieved, despite proving the suitability of the approaches applied, did not reveal any trend towards an increase or a decrease either in the frequency of the droughts or in their severity in the studied area.

In the last few decades, Lake Amatitlán a highland lake (surface area 15 km², 1,188 masl) located south of Guatemala City, has been severely impacted by human activities. The western basin of the lake (Lago Oeste) receives high sediment loads and huge amounts of untreated industrial and domestic wastewater from the capital. In 2012, a bathymetric survey was conducted in Lake Amatitlán and sediment cores were retrieved to better understand the sediment input and to estimate the lake’s loss in storage capacity over time. The life span of Lake Amatitlán’s western basin, Lago Oeste, was estimated at ~114 years, from 2012, assuming constant annual sediment accumulation rates. A tephra layer in sediment cores was used as a temporal marker to assess the impact of extreme climate events on sedimentation. Our results indicate that in 2010, during the tropical cyclone Agatha, two days after the explosion of Pacaya volcano, sediment loads increased two-fold. It is likely, that future climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events such as tropical storms, heavy rains, and landslides and will consequently impact and enhance sedimentation of Lake Amatitlán. Climate change impacts will be exacerbated by increasing demographic pressures and unregulated settlements in the Lake Amatitlán watershed. Therefore, immediate management actions and adaptation strategies are urgently needed to protect the sedimentation and the disappearance of Lake Amatitlán.

It has been well established that coastal zones in Latin America are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures including climate change impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, increased storm intensity, altered hydrological regimes, etc.). The twin challenge of maintaining human security (often via protection using dikes) and sustaining coastal ecosystems and the services they provide has been identified as a major issue for coastal management (Nicholls et al. 2010). This study was motivated by the dual observation that there are very few estimates of the local costs of climate change in developing countries and that the few studies that do exist rarely take into account the non-market value of ecosystem services. Using a case study of a coastal lagoon ecosystem in Uruguay, a preliminary interdisciplinary analysis that isolates changes in the economic value of ecosystem services was undertaken, which can be associated with historical climatic changes. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) framework is adapted to identify lagoon ecosystem services and three valuation methodologies are implemented to estimate non-market monetary values of climate change impacts on the artisanal shrimp fishery, carbon sequestration and habitat services. The results suggest that climate change is already affecting the economic value of the coastal lagoon ecosystem. Implications for local management and lessons learned from the case study are discussed.

The study presents an institutional arrangement for managing some risks associated with hydroclimatic variability in the Rio de la Plata River Estuarine Frontal System (EFS). The goals are to contribute to an efficient coordination work between local agencies that manage the use of ecosystem services, and to incorporate climate science and management options in coastal areas of Uruguay. We have identified and analysed climate forcing ENSO and the variables river flow and winds, which govern the location and displacement of the frontal system, where the capital city Montevideo is located, and the fluctuations of salinity. The study analyses the austral spring–summer period (October–March) from 1997/1998 to 2012/2013. Fish catch and beach quality were selected as examples of environmental impacts of climate forcing which are presented as a causality loop diagram (CLD): ENSO → (River flow, wind, rainfall) → (EFS displacement, Salinity), and state/impact indicators → (Fish catch, Beach quality). Institutional cooperation has been developed to incorporate climate adaptation regarding the Frontal System. GEF Project “Implementing Pilot Adaptation Measures to Climate Change in coastal areas of Uruguay”, in which the Directorate of the Environment, the University of the Republic, and the Government of Montevideo collaborate on improving climate science, monitoring, and management in the fields of Estuarine and Environmental Management has provided the framework for the present study.

Due to its geo-political characteristics and social and economic features, the Latin American region is considered as being among the most vulnerable ones, as far as climate change is concerned. The combination of two further important elements, namely limited access to technologies and restricted adaptation capacity, may help to explain why the region is so vulnerable and is likely to remain so, unless fundamental changes in decision-making processes are implemented. From an objective point of view, decision-making processes may play a key role in facilitating the ways countries perceive and, as importantly, manage the impacts of climate change. Yet, there is a paucity of research which looks at the extent to which the sound management of the impacts of climate change may take place, across Latin America, in a systematic way. This paper addresses this need, by discussing the extent to which individual Latin American countries handle matters related to climate change, and by illustrating a number of the problems and deficiencies which have been limiting progresses over the past two decades. It also describes some of the recent and on-going initiatives from across the region, and introduces the project CELA, an initiative to promote technology transfer on climate change by means of cooperation between universities in the European Union and Latin American nations.

Technology innovations have been introduced with a velocity unknown in the past during these last years. For that, the joint efforts of universities, industry and government have been vital. This approach has been called “Triple Helix”. After this elaboration, a strategic approach of a “Quadruple Helix,” has been proposed which also includes the civil society. This approach could be extended to include international organizations and the media in general, whose influences go beyond national borders, although they do have an important national incidence within any country. This document identifies the lessons learnt from the vulnerability of Guatemala and the activities needed to face the effects of extreme climate change. An adaptation strategy is outlined, based on the extended “Quadruple Helix”. However, the actions towards mitigation measures are also to be well kept and efforts have to be made in the short and medium terms in the whole spectrum of climate change. The perspective elaborated here examines these strategic approaches and their application in Guatemala, the vulnerabilities of the country before extreme climate change, the attitudes of the different actors towards these threats, the coordination of strategies that take into account the four helixes approach, and the lessons that might be inferred from its implementation. Lastly, this reflection aims to design an appropriate agenda to face extreme climate changes in the short, medium and long-terms by showing their links throughout time.

Climate change has been argued to be the single largest threat to human society and will be especially pronounced in Caribbean Small Island Developing States. Adaptive capacity—defined in the context of this chapter as the ability to design, develop and implement successful strategies that address climate change impacts—is dependent on a range of socio-political factors that dynamically interact and operate at different scales. While adaptive capacity is central to the theoretical foundations of climate change adaptation research, very few studies have attempted to understand how these different factors facilitate or hinder the ability of a community to successfully implement adaptation strategies. This chapter presents a preliminary analysis of how certain social, institutional, political and economic factors interact to facilitate and enhance adaptive capacity in a Caribbean small island community. The study also assesses the different perceptions surrounding the concept of “successful” climate change adaptation. The community of Paget Farm on the island of Bequia in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has been chosen as a case study since it has both demonstrated high adaptive capacity and increased its adaptive capacity to future climate-related threats by having access to freshwater from the Caribbean region’s first carbon–neutral desalination plant.

In the past, fuel-based economies have led the way in economic growth, resulting in emissions that are now understood to cause climate change, having a major impact on countries of the Global South. It has become clear that effective climate change mitigation and adaptation not only require restrictions on energy consumption in the industrialized world, but also a decoupling of economic development from greenhouse gas emissions in the South. But can developing countries take a less carbon-intensive path, even though its outcome is highly uncertain? In many scenarios for a sustainable future energy supply, decentralized solutions play a crucial role. Such solutions are often based on renewable energies and can help to avoid lock-in effects based on fuel intensive energy systems. However, they are characterized by various aspects that conventional research paradigms have given little attention to, until now. These research challenges are reflected in the concept of Microenergy Systems, which serves as a theoretical basis for the Research Focus and Ph.D. program at the Technische Universität in Berlin. It brings together academics from various disciplines to take a micro-perspective on the idea of decentralized energy supply. This chapter introduces and discusses the concept of Microenergy Systems. It summarizes the development of the relatively young research group—the experiences of engineers, social and political scientists, economists and planners partaking in joint research and education in the field of decentralized sustainable energy solutions. Furthermore it highlights the attempt to establish an international scientific community concerned with Microenergy Systems amongst academics who are scattered throughout different institutions and numerous universities worldwide.

This paper is an attempt to assess the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of coastal people in the south-western part of Bangladesh. This study has been conducted by using quantitative method with semi-structured interview questionnaire for data collection in purposive manner. The paper examines the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivities, food securities and institutional challenges that the coastal people face. This paper finds that the frequency and severity of natural disasters have increased in recent years, that threat on food securities by inundating low agriculture land, restricting economic activities, decreasing employment opportunities, expanding different health diseases, destructing houses, crops and other infrastructures in Bangladesh. The findings indicate that the most climate change induced vulnerable and risky people are women, children, elderly and disabled people as they cannot easily cope with the unfavorable environment during disasters. There has not been conducted much empirical research about the impacts of climate change, so policy makers can get comprehensive view about this concern by this study and implement policy for the survival of the climate change induced affected coastal people.

Risk perceptions influence individual and collective adaptive responses to climate hazards. Up to now, the majority of literature addressing climate change perception and adaptation has been location-specific. Such an approach is limited with respect to the construction of a generalized theory around why and how people perceive and act towards climate change risks. This chapter seeks to contribute to overcome this limitation by offering a cross-sectional study of climate change risks perceptions among smallholder farmers settled in three contrasting biomes in Brazil: the Amazon (rainforest); the Caatinga (semi-arid); and the Cerrado (savanna). By articulating regional, local and micro scales of comparison, common traits in the perception of climate variability are identified. It is not intended, at this stage, to validate particular theories of climate change, but rather to contribute to a better understanding of climate change as a trans-regional and socially embedded environmental phenomenon. This study shows that, in spite of existing perceptive barriers, smallholders settled in dramatically different contexts share perceptions about risks linked to the following phenomena: (i) changes in the timing of seasons, (ii) decrease in rainfall levels; (iii) temperature rises. Moreover, there are specific adaptation strategies to climate change, like the timing of seeding, which appear to be addressed independently by smallholders of the three biomes. Public policies intended to support adaptive measures and the increase of food security must take subjective risk perception into account within the cultural and environmental contexts of the actors involved.

Climatic variability, including droughts, has long affected the Mayan Lowlands. Therefore, farmers have developed coping strategies to mitigate these impacts. In the past, however, records of these effects and responses were largely anecdotal. In modern times, the perceptions of farmers, especially those practicing rain-fed agriculture, combined with the increased availability of accurate historical climatic records and forecasts, can provide useful information regarding periods of decreased precipitation and strategies employed to resist and respond to drought effects. As part of the multidisciplinary and inter-institutional project, New Knowledge about Ecosystem Level Response to Increased Frequency of Large-Scale Natural Disturbance Driven by Climate Change, this chapter outlines the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation across the Southern Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, and examines Mayan farmers’ adaptations to droughts and other climate perturbations. The authors analyzed precipitation trends and anomalies from 1953 to 2007, using linear regressions and the quintile method to classify meteorological droughts. Authors also conducted 150 household interviews across 10 communities to investigate Mayan farmers’ adaptations to climate perturbations. Results demonstrate a significant decrease in annual and rainy season precipitation across much of the study area, coupled with an increased occurrence of droughts, especially since 1980. Interviewed subsistence maize farmers have adapted to decreasing and irregular precipitation by adjusting agricultural calendars, planting more maize varieties, increasing water storage, and diversifying their practices both within the agricultural system and beyond it. Through this research, the authors demonstrate the importance of incorporating farmers’ local and traditional knowledge into prevention and mitigation policies of governmental and non-governmental institutions in the region.

There is mounting evidence that global warming is producing variations in local weather patterns and water supplies, disturbing ecosystems and soil landscapes and impacting economic production and social conditions. Important changes in rainfall patterns, increases in temperatures and more intense and severe climate events have already been observed, with negative impacts for people’s livelihoods. The multiple impacts of climate change could be a considerable source of risk, affecting patterns of development and local livelihoods, but they could also provide new opportunities (i.e., expansion of cultivated areas). In this perspective, climate change has been defined as a “wicked” problem for which there is no easy solutions and no simple approaches. It requires not only a multiplicity of perspectives to understand the phenomenon in all its complexity but also an increasing proximity between university researchers, policy-makers, industry, and citizen sector organizations to manage the risks and opportunities. A significant challenge, nevertheless, has been the limited integration between researchers and those government agencies that play a central role in the everyday management of development and natural resources. There are significant institutional and cultural barriers between researchers and policy-makers that hinder the transformation of scientific knowledge into plans and actions able to strengthen adaptive capacity. The chapter discusses climate governance and the science/practice interface in terms of the process of climate knowledge mobilization. Based on the dissemination experience of two multi-disciplinary policy-oriented projects, the presentation applies the lessons learned and compares these lessons to a variety of insights found in the related literature.

Environmental Refugees are unable to maintain a secure livelihood in their own habitat due to environmental hazards, with minor optimism to return. This category includes the people who are displaced due to the disruption in physical and/or social systems, and subsequent losses or degradation of ecosystem services. The impacts of sea level rise in combination with complex hydrodynamic conditions, have caused severe coastal erosion on islands of the Indian Sundarban. In a recent past, within the Hugli River (lower course of River Ganga) estuary, three islands namely Lohachahara, Suparibhanga and Bedford completely submerged and Ghoramara Island eroded significantly which resulted in a considerable population of environmental refugees. In 1991 there were 374 inhabitants in the Lohachara Island who became landless after submergence, and were compelled to move other places. Ghoramara Island is located between 21° 53′ 56″ N to 21° 55′ 37″ N latitude and 88° 06′ 59″ E to 88° 08′ 35″ E longitude within the Hugli estuary of western part of Indian Sundarban. The major occupation of local people is agriculture, fishing and prawn seed collection. Time series analyses using multi-temporal satellite imageries of 1975 and 2010 unfold the erosional pattern of this island. Some of the distinct villages of this island are already under water. Due to the displacement from their own habitat and also gradual loss in ecosystem services, increased rate of migration in this island has resulted. The poorer people who lost their homeland were compelled to move towards mainland areas like Kakdwip/Namkhana or comparatively stable islands like Sagar Island, with little or without any token compensation from the Government. Some of the economically stable people migrated to their other properties in the central part of the Island, hence ensuring their wellbeing. This people are often still paying land tax for their lost land, with little hope of becoming compensated by either cash or land, in the near future.

Finding out ways to support farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change is a challenge for agricultural policy. Hypothesizing that awareness through learning about climate change enhances farmers’ perception of and adaptation to climatic uncertainty, this paper gives an empirical evidence of the relationships between learning about climate change and farmers’ perception of, and adaptation to new climate conditions. The study was conducted in northern Benin by a survey method on 336 farmers. Talking about climate change, farmers mainly perceive it based on observed changes in their daily life environment, implying from own experience. About 56 % of the farmers were also aware through learning about climate change and the most predominant vectors of climate change information (although indigenous knowledge) are neighbour farmers or farmers associations and extension services. Using the Heckman probit model built on the assumption that the perception of is a precondition for the adaptation to, the results highlighted that the main driving forces of farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change are level of education and organisation membership. On the other hand, the main determinants of farmers’ perception are gender, contact with extension and awareness of climate change trends. Subsequently, enhancing farmers’ awareness through learning about the predicted trends of climate change is likely to strengthen their perception of and furthermore encourage their adaptation to.

This chapter presents examples of U.S. local climate change planning in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine. The processes initiated storm surge and sea level rise mitigation, adaptation and resilience plans in the context of national environmental conflict regarding climate change. Here, we highlight the constructive role local knowledge and experience can have in deliberative policy making and adaptive governance processes. These case studies utilized multiple methods of data collection including participant observation, semi-structured interviews, and content analysis. The elements that inspired communities to pursue adaptation were consistent across the case studies. The projects were framed using local values and did not directly challenge world views of participants. All had recent experience with extreme weather. Each benefitted from local “climate champions”. Finally, each had access to technical assistance providers who engaged in collaborative learning. Local participatory planning processes that use tools like COAST and the NOAA Roadmap connect technical tools with social, political, and economic realities. They provide a container within which communities are empowered to have difficult conversations about needed responses to sea level rise and storm surge. Novel in the COAST approach is the integration of visual 3D graphics with benefit-cost analysis, entirely stakeholder driven model parameters, and the focus on stakeholders’ identified values as resources that inspire action.

A dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model has been employed to evaluate the alternative post-2012 targets and policies for CO₂ reduction in Annex I and non-Annex I parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Based on an analysis of conflicting strategies that different countries were pursuing during the recent international negotiations on climate change, this paper presents some ideas for an effective climate policy. The low-end pledges confirmed at the COP 16 negotiations on climate change were evaluated for the alternative policy settings, which include international carbon trading, domestic actions, and linking of the EU ETS with Russian and Ukrainian carbon markets. The study has a special focus on the implications of trading of surplus emission permits, or so-called hot air that occurs when a country’s carbon abatement target is below its projected emissions. Results of computer simulations reveal that by 2020 global carbon emissions will exceed their 1990 levels by 71–96 %, depending on the model scenario. Although multilateral implementation results in the lowest emission levels, it overshoots the levels of CO₂ sufficient to stabilise GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations at 450 ppm in 2100 by 5 Gt. Only international emission trading could motivate Russia and Ukraine to abate emissions. Such trade is profitable for the EU as it halves the carbon price compared with when the EU abates emissions domestically. Countries with non-binding abatement targets could be affected by the terms of trade effects resulting from emission reduction in other countries. Indeed, the possibility to trade emissions internationally provides the climate free-riders with an incentive for emission abatement. However, at the global scale, such policy lowers the cost of carbon abatement without meeting the GHG stabilisation goal. Therefore ambitious abatement targets, along with a large emissions market, are necessary to make climate policy effective.

This research reports on how farmers perceive and adapt to climate change in three agro-ecological zones of Sidama, South Ethiopia. The main aim is to increase understanding about smallholder farmers’ perspectives by documenting and analysing local people’s perception of climate change. The research was held as part of a large project investigating vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. The researcher spent six months (from January to May 2012) in the field undertaking, among other things, focus group discussion (FGD) meetings from March to May 2012. Findings revealed that farmers clearly perceive climate change based on their lived experience and knowledge of their local environment. They identify shifting seasons, increased aridity, drought, erratic rainfall, floods, extreme heat and the emergence/spread of diseases such as malaria as indicators of change. Yet their perception of the causes of climate change varied: deforestation, God’s wrath, abandonment of past traditions/practices, and overpopulation. They also assigned important role to religious beliefs and government authority to address the problems engendered by what they refer to as “changed times.” Since the problem is rightly recognised, government policy needs to focus on aligning local knowledge and values with scientific information for adaptation to climate change.

Despite a global scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change, the issue remains highly contentious in the United States, stifling public debate and action on the issue. Local perceptions of and attitudes toward climate change—how different groups of people outside of the professional climate science community make sense of changes in climate in light of their personal experiences and social, political, economic, and environmental contexts—are critical foci for understanding ongoing conflicts over climate change. Contributing to a growing body of literature on the social science of climate change, we use an ethnographic approach to examine these perceptions and attitudes in three sites in Georgia across the urban–rural continuum. Our research demonstrates that the way people view the concept of climate change, its potential effects, and mitigation strategies are mediated by a range of factors, including political and religious affiliation, race and ethnicity, personal experience, economic status, environmental context, media exposure, and sense of community and place. We argue that an ethnographic approach that explores the perceptions and attitudes of specific communities in detail can add nuance to the broad-scale surveys that have dominated the field to date.

Since the inception of higher education (HE) over one hundred years ago, its purpose has been to cater for the religious and social leaders who will be competent enough to run the country. Paradigm shifting in HE has made society realise that every profession demands competent professionals to provide balanced development across all educational sectors in order to see national development progress. As a result, universities now provide a wide range of training and education in the arts, sciences, social sciences and commerce, which may have caused the recent IT and e-commerce revolution. However, the primary contribution of HE is still seen as supporting economic development because it contributes less than other developmental phenomena. In developing nations, the issue of climate change is yet to be perceived either as an economic or as a social developmental agenda item. Consequently, HE provides less attention to climate change. However, climate change has a serious impact not only on economic development but also on social development. Therefore, HE needs to discover a concrete and substantial way in which to handle climate change. This novel piece of research, which is the first of its kind in Bangladesh, used qualitative methods in order to outline the policy direction that HE may adopt to make its role more distinct in handling climate change.