1. Introduction

Nigeria’s Fourth Republic, which began in 1999 with the election of Olusegun Obasanjo followed by Umaru Yar’Adua and Goodluck Jonathan, has been fraught with security challenges, including spikes in communal and sectarian violence in the Middle Belt, militancy and criminality in the Niger Delta, and insurgency in the Northeast. Those with a stake in peace and security in Nigeria, whether they be donor agencies, security services, civil society, government, private sector, or community leaders, all rely on data and indices for their baselines; site-selection; resource allocation; and monitoring and evaluation of their programs, projects, and activities. The level of analysis varies by stakeholder, some of whom are focused at the national level, while others are focused at the state, local government, or community levels. However, regardless of mandate, projects can easily be derailed if a systems lens is not applied in recognition of the fact that local level pressures can impact state and national trends, just as national trends can impact local patterns. An analytical focus on Boko Haram in the Northeast, for instance, to the exclusion of inter-communal conflict in the Middle Belt, can easily lead to misinterpretations and unpleasant surprises. A particular local government in the Niger Delta may have a long, peaceful history, but if the wider trends are not understood, traditional leaders may miss the early signs of conflict escalation until it is too late.