1 Introduction
2 Method
2.1 Data preparation
Sector No. | Description | Waseda Code |
---|---|---|
S01 | Agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishing | 001000~005000 |
S02 | Fossil fuel | 008000 |
S03 | Mining, ceramic, metal, non-metal, glass | 006000~007000, 033000~044000 |
S04 | Other manufacturing | 009000~019000, 032000, 063000~064000 |
S05 | Chemical industry | 020000~031000 |
S06 | Mechanical, vehicle manufacturing | 045000~047000, 057000~062000 |
S07 | Electrical manufacturing | 048000~056000 |
S08 | Construction | 065000~068400 |
S09 | Transportation | 078000~085000 |
S10 | Gas, heat, water, waste | 070100~072500 |
S11 | Other services | 073000~077000, 086000~108000 |
S12-1 | Transmission | 069300 |
S12-2 | Power generation (nuclear) | 069110 |
S12-3 | Power generation (thermal) | 069120, 069400 |
S12-4 | Power generation (hydro) | 069130 |
S12-5 | Power generation (renewable energy) | 069211~069241 |
2.2 Supply side
2.2.1 Electricity generation
2.2.2 Transmission
2.2.3 Industry sectors except for power generation and transmission
2.2.4 Distribution of production into the domestic market and export
2.3 Demand-side
2.3.1 Government behavior
2.3.2 Household behavior
2.3.3 Investment behavior
2.3.4 Allocation of total demand for the domestic commodity and imported commodity
3 Parameter determination
3.1 Parameter estimation of CES function
Industrial sector (n) | S01 | S02 | S03 | S04 | S05 | S06 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\phi_{n}\)
| 0.17379 | 0.14533 | 0.43175 | 0.26086 | 0.49118 | 0.81650 |
Industrial sector (n) | S07 | S08 | S09 | S10 | S11 | S12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\phi_{n}\)
| 0.89777 | 0.01000 | 0.50755 | 0.01000 | 0.24216 | 0.01000 |
Industrial sector (n) | S01 | S02 | S03 | S04 | S05 | S06 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\eta_{n}\)
| 0.58905 | 0.18119 | 0.48149 | 0.58294 | 0.55616 | 0.43139 |
Industrial sector (n) | S07 | S08 | S09 | S10 | S11 | S12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
\(\eta_{n}\)
| 0.84518 | 0.01000 | 0.38359 | 0.01000 | 0.20083 | 0.01000 |
3.2 Parameter determination of translog function
Scenario 1 |
N
|
T
|
H
|
R
| Scenario 2 |
N
|
T
|
H
|
R
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N
| − 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 2.50 |
N
| − 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | − 2.50 |
T
| 1.25 | − 1.00 | 1.25 | 5.00 |
T
| 1.25 | − 1.00 | 1.25 | 5.00 |
H
| 1.25 | 1.25 | − 1.00 | 2.50 |
H
| 1.25 | 1.25 | − 1.00 | − 2.50 |
R
| 2.50 | 5.00 | 2.50 | − 1.00 |
R
| − 2.50 | 5.00 | − 2.50 | − 1.00 |
4 Results and discussion6
4.1 Simulation description
4.2 Simulation results
Industrial sectors | Scenario 1 (substitution) | Scenario 2 (complement) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | 289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | |
S01 | − 0.064 | − 0.133 | − 0.449 | − 0.064 | − 0.134 | − 0.452 |
S02 | − 0.241 | − 0.497 | − 1.635 | − 0.240 | − 0.495 | − 1.631 |
S03 | − 0.045 | − 0.094 | − 0.312 | − 0.046 | − 0.095 | − 0.314 |
S04 | − 0.062 | − 0.129 | − 0.435 | − 0.063 | − 0.130 | − 0.438 |
S05 | − 0.266 | − 0.551 | − 1.815 | − 0.266 | − 0.551 | − 1.816 |
S06 | − 0.057 | − 0.118 | − 0.387 | − 0.057 | − 0.119 | − 0.388 |
S07 | − 0.067 | − 0.139 | − 0.456 | − 0.067 | − 0.139 | − 0.457 |
S08 | − 0.012 | − 0.025 | − 0.087 | − 0.012 | − 0.026 | − 0.089 |
S09 | − 0.059 | − 0.123 | − 0.411 | − 0.059 | − 0.123 | − 0.413 |
S10 | − 0.116 | − 0.241 | − 0.795 | − 0.117 | − 0.242 | − 0.797 |
S11 | 0.028 | 0.057 | 0.188 | 0.028 | 0.057 | 0.186 |
Industrial sectors | Scenario 1 (substitution) | Scenario 2 (complement) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | 289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | |
Transmission | − 0.037 | − 0.077 | − 0.259 | − 0.021 | − 0.043 | − 0.150 |
Nuclear | 0.463 | 0.961 | 3.194 | 0.482 | 1.000 | 3.321 |
Thermal | − 0.391 | − 0.809 | − 2.658 | − 0.375 | − 0.777 | − 2.554 |
Hydro | 0.505 | 1.048 | 3.484 | 0.527 | 1.093 | 3.633 |
Renewable | 2.304 | 4.788 | 16.038 | 2.111 | 4.388 | 14.703 |
4.3 Change in GDP and CO2 emission
Industrial Sectors | Scenario 1 (substitution) | Scenario 2 (complement) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | 289 Yen (BAU) | 600 Yen | 2000 Yen | |
S01 | − 0.064 | − 0.133 | − 0.449 | − 0.064 | − 0.134 | − 0.452 |
S02 | − 0.239 | − 0.496 | − 1.634 | − 0.239 | − 0.495 | − 1.630 |
S03 | − 0.045 | − 0.094 | − 0.312 | − 0.046 | − 0.095 | − 0.314 |
S04 | − 0.062 | − 0.129 | − 0.435 | − 0.063 | − 0.130 | − 0.438 |
S05 | − 0.266 | − 0.551 | − 1.815 | − 0.266 | − 0.551 | − 1.816 |
S06 | − 0.057 | − 0.118 | − 0.387 | − 0.057 | − 0.119 | − 0.388 |
S07 | − 0.067 | − 0.139 | − 0.456 | − 0.067 | − 0.139 | − 0.457 |
S08 | − 0.012 | − 0.025 | − 0.087 | − 0.012 | − 0.026 | − 0.089 |
S09 | − 0.059 | − 0.123 | − 0.411 | − 0.059 | − 0.123 | − 0.413 |
S10 | − 0.116 | − 0.241 | − 0.795 | − 0.117 | − 0.241 | − 0.797 |
S11 | 0.028 | 0.056 | 0.189 | 0.025 | 0.056 | 0.186 |
Nuclear | 0.463 | 0.961 | 3.193 | 0.482 | 1.000 | 3.321 |
Thermal | − 0.391 | − 0.809 | − 2.658 | − 0.375 | − 0.777 | − 2.554 |
Hydro | 0.505 | 1.048 | 3.484 | 0.527 | 1.093 | 3.633 |
Renewable | 2.304 | 4.787 | 16.039 | 2.107 | 4.381 | 14.698 |