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Published in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 3/2013

01-04-2013 | Original Research

Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion

Authors: Bartosz Gębka, Michail Karoglou

Published in: Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting | Issue 3/2013

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Abstract

Many tests of financial contagion require a definition of the dates separating calm from crisis periods. We propose to use a battery of break search procedures for individual time series to objectively identify potential break dates in relationships between countries. Applied to the biggest European stock markets and combined with two well established tests for financial contagion, this approach results in break dates which correctly identify the timing of changes in cross-country transmission mechanisms. Application of break search procedures breathes new life into the established contagion tests, allowing for an objective, data-driven timing of crisis periods.

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Appendix
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Footnotes
1
A noticeable exception is, e.g., Goh et al. (2005) who estimate breaks in behaviour of price indices to date the outbreak and the end of the 1997 Asian crisis.
 
2
Section 2 elaborates on the existing approaches and discusses their advantages and shortcomings.
 
3
The Newey and West (1994) automatic procedure provides the bandwidth selection for the Bartlett and Quadratic Spectral kernels.
 
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Metadata
Title
Is there life in the old dogs yet? Making break-tests work on financial contagion
Authors
Bartosz Gębka
Michail Karoglou
Publication date
01-04-2013
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting / Issue 3/2013
Print ISSN: 0924-865X
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7179
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-012-0278-z

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