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2018 | Book

Introduction: Energy Systems Modelling for a Sustainable World Read chapter Read first chapter

Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development

Editors: Prof. Dr. George Giannakidis, Ph.D. Kenneth Karlsson, Maryse Labriet, Brian Ó Gallachóir

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

Book Series : Lecture Notes in Energy

Part of: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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About this book

This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy–water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality.

A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Introduction: Energy Systems Modelling for a Sustainable World
Abstract
Since the first oil crisis more than forty years ago, concerns regarding energy security, economic impacts, air pollution, climate change, energy poverty, and societal well-being have been repeatedly calling for an energy revolution. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change are unambiguous: in order to identify the key technologies to achieve the energy revolution and the appropriate programs and policies that will bring them to the market, decision makers need robust policy analyses that encompass the relevant global, regional national and local factors, as well as increasing details and synergies across the complex issues which characterizes the energy system. Given their intrinsic nature, energy system models are particularly well suited to provide comprehensive, integrated and robust information on the short, medium and long term transformation of the energy systems under multiple constraints—economic, technology, environment and societal factors. This chapter introduces the development and use of energy system models by the members of the IEA Technology Collaboration Programme on energy systems modelling, namely the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (IEA-ETSAP) to support the definition of energy and climate policies in an increasing number of countries. It also provides an overview of the 23 case studies presented in this book, all exploring the potential for feasible roadmaps at global, national or local scale compatible with a well below 2 ℃ future. They all show that those roadmaps are extremely challenging, and early action is essential.
Maryse Labriet, George Giannakidis, Kenneth Karlsson, Brian Ó Gallachóir

The Radical Transformation of the Global Energy System

Frontmatter
Energy System Challenges of Deep Global CO2 Emissions Reduction Under the World Energy Council’s Scenario Framework
Abstract
In this chapter we explore the long-term energy system transformation to keep the increase of the global mean temperature well below 2 ℃ compared to pre-industrial level. Our analysis builds on the framework of the World Energy Scenarios 2016 which we complement by an additional 1.5 ℃ climate target scenario. We employ PSI’s global multi-regional MARKAL model, a technology rich bottom-up energy systems model distinguishing the global energy system into 15 regions. Our results provide the following key insights on the decarbonisation of the energy sector: (1) global combustion-related CO2 emissions must become negative by 2060 if the climate target is to be achieved at least cost, (2) net CO2 removal through bioenergy conversion with CO2 capture and storage (CCS) relieves the pressure to reduce emissions in sectors with high mitigation costs, such as aviation and industry, (3) strong energy policy is needed to drive down the global energy consumption of the end-use sectors past 2030, (4) electricity is an important enabler for decarbonising energy end-uses and should be promoted along with low-carbon generation, (5) coal with and without CCS is not a long-term option in the power sector, while methane combustion equipped with CCS could complement the electricity mix which would be 85% based on renewable energy and nuclear in 2060, (6) more than half of the power generation investments need to be dedicated to wind and solar technologies in the period 2011–2060, and the electricity markets in Asia require about half of the global investments in generation equipment.
Tom Kober, Evangelos Panos, Kathrin Volkart
Pathways to Post-fossil Economy in a Well Below 2 ℃ World
Abstract
We explore the pathways for mitigating climate change to at most 2 ℃ and below by imposing a representative target trajectory for radiative forcing and by range of different price trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions. Due to the inertia in both the energy and climate systems, it appears questionable whether the objective of limiting global warming to well-below 2 ℃ is achievable without considerably overshooting the target within the current century. Exceeding the constraints of the estimated carbon budget also means that the initial overshooting must be later compensated by removing the excess emissions with negative emissions, which may become very difficult without substantial technological changes leading the world into a sustainable post-fossil economy. We outline an idealised technology pathway aligning with these viewpoints. The analysis highlights the necessity for immediate mitigation action for avoiding excessive overshooting, the key role of negative emissions, and the prospects of producing synthetic fuels, chemicals and materials from renewables and carbon dioxide for enabling the transition into the post-fossil economy.
Antti Lehtilä, Tiina Koljonen
How Low Can We Go? The Implications of Delayed Ratcheting and Negative Emissions Technologies on Achieving Well Below 2 °C
Abstract
Pledges embodied in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) represent an interim step from a global “no policy” path towards an optimal long-term global mitigation path. However, the goals of the Paris Agreement highlight that current pledges are insufficient. It is, therefore, necessary to ratchet-up parties’ future mitigation pledges in the near-term. The ambitious goals of remaining well below 2 °C and pursuing reductions towards 1.5 °C mean that any delay in ratcheting-up commitments could be extremely costly or may even make the targets unachievable. In this chapter, we consider the impacts of delaying ratcheting until 2030 on global emissions trajectories towards 2 °C and 1.5 °C, and the role of offsets via negative emissions technologies (NETs). The analysis suggests that delaying action makes pursuing the 1.5 °C goal especially difficult without extremely high levels of negative emissions technologies (NETs), such as carbon capture and storage combined with bioenergy (BECCS). Depending on the availability of biomass, other NETs beyond BECCS will be required. Policymakers must also realise that the outlook for fossil fuels are closely linked to the prospects for NETs. If NETs cannot be scaled, the levels of fossil fuels suggested in this analysis are not compatible with the Paris Agreement goals i.e. there are risks of lock-in to a high fossil future. Decision makers must, therefore, comprehend fully the risks of different strategies.
Matthew Winning, Steve Pye, James Glynn, Daniel Scamman, Daniel Welsby
Analysis of the Relative Roles of Supply-Side and Demand-Side Measures in Tackling the Global 1.5 °C Target
Abstract
This chapter explores, in a systematic manner, the required energy system transformations and the associated price-dependent energy-service demands reductions in order to hold the increase in global average temperature below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. It also evaluates the macroeconomic implications of the climate mitigation policy. The analysis is carried out using the global hybrid TIAM-MACRO model. The major findings show that a rapid decarbonisation of all sectors in the global energy system is fundamental in achieving a 1.5 °C consistent goal. This requires a portfolio of supply-side and demand-side mitigation measures. While technological measures are essential to meet the decarbonisation target, reducing energy-service demands is found to be a mitigation measure that facilitates a cost-effective transition. In addition, energy-service demands reductions play an important role in offsetting the macroeconomic impacts of the climate policy. Finally, any overshoot of the energy sector carbon budget must be counterbalanced by a significant deployment of negative emissions technologies.
Babak Mousavi, Markus Blesl
The Role of Population, Affluence, Technological Development and Diet in a Below 2 °C World
Abstract
The rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant temperature anomaly in the global climate can be simplified to a function of (1) the global population, (2) economic activity and (3) technological development for thought experiments. Diet, given the embodied process emissions in producing food, is also acknowledged as an important factor. Growth in the first two factors tends to increase environmental impacts while technological development can reduce them. In this chapter, the impact from these four variables, their interdependencies and importance are illustrated. To do so, three different model frameworks are combined namely IPAT, Ecological Footprint and Integrated Assessment Modelling, to illustrate the challenges to finding pathways to maintain a well below 2 °C world. The model setup developed for this chapter estimates the global mean temperature increase to 2100 and the needed land area to support human life as a function of population, affluence, technological development and diet. It is shown that focusing on technology development alone will likely not be enough to mitigate global warming and stay well below a 2 °C temperature increase. Therefore, the discussion about population, consumption, development and diet shifting should be high on the agenda for reducing energy demands and for increasing the feasibility of maintaining a well below 2 °C world.
Kenneth Karlsson, Jørgen Nørgård, Juan Gea Bermúdez, Olexandr Balyk, Mathis Wackernagel, James Glynn, Amit Kanudia

The Diversity of the National Energy Transitions in Europe

Frontmatter
A Scandinavian Transition Towards a Carbon-Neutral Energy System
Abstract
This study demonstrates a cost-optimal transition towards a carbon neutral energy system in Scandinavia (Denmark, Norway and Sweden) in 2050 with no import of biofuels and no use of CO2 storage. The Scandinavian electricity sector is already highly renewable and carbon neutrality requires extensive changes in other parts of the energy system, including the building, transport and industry sectors. The analysis is done with a stochastic TIMES model that considers the short-term uncertainty of renewable electricity generation and heat demand. In this study, a simplified deterministic approach gives significantly lower investments in wind power, PV and low-efficient electricity based heating in buildings compared to the stochastic analysis. This implies that an appropriate representation of short-term uncertainty is an important premise to provide reasonable policy recommendations from energy system models. Moreover, carbon neutrality requires significant decarbonization of the end-use sectors, especially the transport sector. Hydrogen is the dominant fuel used in the transport sector, and it is cost-optimal to invest in both inflexible hydrogen production and more capital intensive flexible hydrogen production. The results emphasise the importance of considering the entire energy system when designing policy to reach carbon neutrality. This is because the required investments in electricity capacity depend on the degree of electrification, and the future electricity consumption depends on the availability and competiveness of biofuels.
Pernille Seljom, Eva Rosenberg
Net-Zero CO2-Emission Pathways for Sweden by Cost-Efficient Use of Forestry Residues
Abstract
Sweden has committed to reducing its domestic greenhouse gases by 85% by 2045, compared with 1990 levels. Due to the challenge of reducing other greenhouse gases, this commitment is regarded as a net zero CO2 emission target. Biomass is today an important part of the Swedish energy supply and has the potential to increase even further, mainly through utilization of forest residues. To explore different net zero emission pathways with an emphasis on where domestic biomass resources could be used most cost-efficiently, we employed the energy system optimisation model TIMES-Sweden. The results of our study show that biomass is used throughout the energy system. Stringent climate targets and district heating encourage the use of waste heat from biofuel production that results in a more resource efficient use of biomass. Finally, the findings also show that a significant reduction of CO2 emission is difficult to achieve for freight transportation and energy-intensive industry without an increased use of forestry residues.
Anna Krook-Riekkola, Erik Sandberg
A Long-Term Strategy to Decarbonise the Danish Inland Passenger Transport Sector
Abstract
This study applies a novel modelling framework to assess how alternative policies may contribute to a fossil-free transport sector for Denmark and the potential contribution they may have to a well-below 2 °C world. The approach adopted consists of linking an energy system optimisation model, TIMES-DKMS, with a private car simulation model, the Danish Car Stock Model. The results of this study include the magnitude of CO2 abatement presented alongside the corresponding change in tax revenue generated through combinations of policies focusing on the derogation of motor taxes for low emission vehicles and banning the sale of the internal combustion engines. The resulting cumulative emissions from the Danish energy system are also compared to a range of national carbon budgets, calculated to adhere to various levels of global temperature rise at different levels of confidence. The results indicate that a ban on the sale of the internal combustion engines enforced in 2025 would enable the largest cut in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions of all the policies considered. However, none of the policies analysed comply with Denmark’s carbon budget capable of maintaining the increase of global temperature limited to 1.5 °C.
Jacopo Tattini, Eamonn Mulholland, Giada Venturini, Mohammad Ahanchian, Maurizio Gargiulo, Olexandr Balyk, Kenneth Karlsson
Challenges and Opportunities for the Swiss Energy System in Meeting Stringent Climate Mitigation Targets
Abstract
In this chapter, we assess the feasibility of the Swiss commitments to mitigate climate change under the framework of the Swiss energy strategy objectives: gradual phase-out of nuclear power, energy efficiency gains and deployment of renewables. We employ an enhanced version of the Swiss TIMES energy systems model (STEM), in which the electricity grid, ancillary services markets, and variability of renewable energy are explicitly modelled. We present two main scenarios: (a) a Baseline scenario that passes through the Swiss national determined contribution (NDC); and (b) a Low Carbon scenario consistent with an emission trajectory to achieve a below 2 °C global warming. The analysis shows that moving beyond NDC requires fast and deep emissions reductions. Electrification and efficiency are the key pillars in achieving decarbonisation. New business models emerge that enable active participation of consumers in the energy supply. However, long-term and consistent price signals are needed to unlock energy savings potentials in the end-use sector. Early action and continuous policy response are necessary to avoid lock-in of emission-intensive infrastructure and stranded assets. Alignment of near-term action with longer-term technology needs and policy objectives is crucial.
Evangelos Panos, Ramachandran Kannan
France 2072: Lifestyles at the Core of Carbon Neutrality Challenges
Abstract
In this chapter, we propose to explore the conditions under which a stringent target of 1.5 °C—written into the Paris Agreement in December 2015—may be fulfilled at a country level, France, while focusing on energy issues. The analysis horizon spans to 2072 in reference to the Club of Rome’s 1972 Limits to Growth publication, 2072 being the neutral target. To this end, we explore the impact of two contrasting lifestyles for France: the first, named digital, represents an individualistic and technological society, whereas the second, named collective, depicts a society with strong social ties and cooperation between citizens. These scenarios are assessed through different models, each one representing a particular aspect: lifestyles, economy and technologies. While technology-oriented energy models usually omit or over-simplify the lifestyle dimension, the proposed approach gives a more coherent framework for the formulation of alternative demand levels. These demands for energy services enrich the scenario-building process and influence not only the economic system, but also the energy system. The digital society involves significant growth of both GDP and the unemployment rate, and does not result in carbon neutrality, whereas the collective society leads to smaller growth of GDP and a decrease in the unemployment rate, but makes it possible to reach a nil carbon target. These results underline the leverage role of lifestyles in attaining carbon neutrality.
Ariane Millot, Rémy Doudard, Thomas Le Gallic, François Briens, Edi Assoumou, Nadia Maïzi
From 2 °C to 1.5 °C: How Ambitious Can Ireland Be?
Abstract
The current climate policy of Ireland was set according to a 2 °C temperature rise target. Pursuing a 1.5 °C temperature increase limit requires ratcheting of decarbonisation ambition. A large ensemble of scenarios are generated with decreasing carbon budgets, and the challenges of not exceeding these carbon budgets are compared with the current 2 °C climate policy scenario. The results indicate that a national carbon budget compatible with a 1.5 °C target would need to be almost three times smaller than the carbon budget resulting from the current national climate policy. This budget is technically feasible, but extremely challenging with the current technology assumptions. A carbon budget which would be midway between 1.5 and 2 °C appears much more plausible. Cost effective decarbonisation rates are non-linear in the near-medium term, contrary to the current policy, and more ambitious carbon budget targets can only be achieved through much stronger near-term mitigation efforts than suggested by the current nationally determined contribution. Marginal Abatement Costs (MAC) increase exponentially with increasing ambition. Delayed action causes a step change increase in MAC as well as reduces the level of feasible decarbonisation ambition.
Xiufeng Yue, Fionn Rogan, James Glynn, Brian Ó Gallachóir
The Pivotal Role of Electricity in the Deep Decarbonization of Energy Systems: Cost-Effective Options for Portugal
Abstract
This chapter explores the impacts on energy systems of deep decarbonization in Portugal up to 2050. The technological bottom-up model TIMES_PT is used to generate three families of scenarios; a reference case, three deep decarbonization scenarios and three electrification scenarios. Results show that the electrification of the final energy consumption of the Portuguese economy contributes significantly towards decarbonization, but that this is not a linear relationship. Electrification is not always the synonym of renewable power, although it is cost-effective to deploy renewable power plants up to the maximum endogenous potentials of onshore wind and hydro. Electrification is achieved by significant deployment of renewable electricity generation, mainly solar photovoltaic and offshore wind, as well as concentrated solar power (to a lesser extent). The end use technologies that contribute the most to the electrification of the Portuguese economy are electric vehicles, heat pumps (both in residential and commercial buildings) and dryers and kilns in some industrial sectors. Investment costs will be the cost component with the highest growth in share of total costs over the modelled period, from around 36% of total costs in 2015 up to almost 60% in 2050 for the most stringent greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, while fuel costs substantially decline. The current energy and climate national policies do not consider any of these specific low carbon energy technologies, nor the major investments that will be required. Such aspects need to be specifically addressed in the Portugal Carbon Neutrality Roadmap studies that have recently started.
Júlia Seixas, Sofia G. Simoes, Patrícia Fortes, João Pedro Gouveia

The Decarbonisation Pathways Outside Europe

Frontmatter
The Canadian Contribution to Limiting Global Warming Below 2 °C: An Analysis of Technological Options and Regional Cooperation
Abstract
Canada committed to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030, and by 70–90% below 2005 levels by 2050. These challenging commitments require special consideration of the energy sector in Canada. The main objective of this chapter is to identify different decarbonization pathways that would allow Canada to participate in global mitigation efforts to prevent climate changes. We analyze four GHG mitigation scenarios with increasing levels of mitigation efforts for 2050 using the NATEM regional optimization model. The main transformations in the energy system include significant energy conservation and efficiency improvements, greater penetration of electricity in all end-use sectors (up to 64% of total consumption in 2050), as well as an important increased use of bioenergy in 2050. On the supply side, this translates into a rapid decarbonization of electricity production and a shift away from fossil fuel production and imports. In addition, our results show that Canada would benefit from achieving greater cooperation between jurisdictions because of the large diversity in the composition of regional energy systems. Finally, this application demonstrates the merits of using a comprehensive optimization model for identifying the best mitigation options for achieving the national contribution to international agreement while taking into account regional particularities.
Kathleen Vaillancourt, Olivier Bahn, Oskar Sigvaldason
Modeling the Impacts of Deep Decarbonization in California and the Western US: Focus on the Transportation and Electricity Sectors
Abstract
Decarbonization scenarios for California and other Western states of United States to 2030 and 2050 show a number of relatively robust trends, including significant adoption of plug-in electric vehicles and investments in large quantities of renewable wind and solar generation. These two developments in disparate sectors (electricity and transportation) are linked via the use of electricity in the transportation sector. By expanding the existing California TIMES (CA-TIMES) model and including the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) electricity region into this model, we explore the impact of California’s policies on the Western Electricity Coordinating Council grid. Our analysis shows that a climate target on California only and not on the other states could contribute to the greening of power plants in the Western States, driven by the possibility to export electricity to California. When a carbon target is extended to all regions, the grid of all Western States, as well as the entire energy system of California, there cannot be zero emissions without adopting carbon capture and storage.
Saleh Zakerinia, Christopher Yang, Sonia Yeh
Towards Zero Carbon Scenarios for the Australian Economy
Abstract
Australia’s high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita reflects its relatively high proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumed, high usage of less efficient private transport and high production of non-ferrous metals per capita. The dominance of coal-fired electricity generation masks Australia’s rich diversity of renewable energy resources. This analysis examines multiple pathways towards achieving deep GHG emissions reduction by 2050 towards a zero emission energy sector. The electricity and transport sectors can achieve the greatest GHG emissions reductions of 70–80% by 2050. The direct combustion sector has a harder abatement task owing to fewer directly substitutable low emission energy sources. Strong global climate ambition, supporting high carbon prices, and the successful management of high shares of variable renewable electricity (VRE) generation are important in achieving deep emission reductions. Further research and development is required to unlock the potential of additional sources of low emission energy such as hydrogen and solar thermal heat to ensure emissions can be completely eliminated without the need to purchase potentially higher cost emission credits from other domestic sectors or the international market.
Luke J. Reedman, Amit Kanudia, Paul W. Graham, Jing Qiu, Thomas S. Brinsmead, Dongxiao Wang, Jennifer A. Hayward
Economic Assessment of Low-Emission Development Scenarios for Ukraine
Abstract
In this chapter, we provide an assessment of low-emission development scenarios for the Ukrainian economy, which faces significant economic and environmental challenges. We use the soft-linkage of the TIMES-Ukraine and Ukrainian computable general equilibrium models, which allows us to estimate an economy wide implications of long-term energy policies, including the Ukrainian low-carbon development strategy initiative (consistent with 2 °C target), and a more ambitious transition towards 92% share of renewables in gross final energy consumption by 2050 (consistent with 1.5 °C). Results show that further maintenance of the existing highly inefficient energy system is more expensive than transition towards a 92% renewables share. Key differences between 2 and 1.5 °C scenarios arise after 2035–2040, which enables the possibility of smooth transitions from less to more stringent pathways during this period. With initially low level of energy efficiency in Ukraine, both policies result in positive macroeconomic and sectoral effects, with better perspectives in case of the renewable scenario, which at the same time requires over 3 times more investment. The existing institutional environment and inefficient market framework can pose significant risks. Key sets of issues, which should be further addressed by policy makers, include: inconsistency between targets of different strategic energy documents; lack of incentives for market transformation, including environmental taxation for industrial users and further subsidy reform for households; and lack of competition and transparency on energy markets.
Maksym Chepeliev, Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets
Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation in Kazakhstan in a Post Paris Agreement Context
Abstract
Under the Paris Agreement, Kazakhstan’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) target is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by between 15 and 25% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. Kazakhstan’s energy system is highly carbon intensive and GHG emissions continue to steadily grow, indicating insufficient progress towards achieving the NDC emissions reductions announced under the Paris Agreement. This chapter presents modelling analysis that assesses a least-cost long term (2050) pathway towards achieving these NDC targets. An additional scenario with a ban on coal across all sectors is also considered. We utilize a TIMES-based sub-national disaggregated 16-region energy systems model for Kazakhstan. The results demonstrate how ambitious a 25% GHG emissions reduction pathway is compared with the current energy policies and mitigation actions. Such a reduction requires an almost full phase-out of coal consumption in power generation by 2050. The share of renewable energy (including hydro) could represent half of the electricity generation mix, the other half being attributed to gas-fired power plants. In other words, the overall target as set by Kazakhstan’s Strategy 2050 and Green Economy Concept to reach 50% of renewable and alternative energy sources by 2050 is very close to the least-cost 25% emissions reduction pathway. The corresponding abatement costs reach levels as high as 59 USD (constant prices of 2013) per tonne of CO2 eq. in 2030 and 281 USD per tonne of CO2 eq. in 2050. A coal ban alone is not sufficient to reduce GHGs, additional actions are needed to promote renewables.
Aiymgul Kerimray, Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Rocco De Miglio, Luis Rojas-Solórzano, Brian Ó Gallachóir
Mexico’s Transition to a Net-Zero Emissions Energy System: Near Term Implications of Long Term Stringent Climate Targets
Abstract
Mexico has positioned itself as a leader among emerging countries for its efforts to mitigate climate change through ambitious climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the Energy Reform bill approved in 2014 promotes the production of hydrocarbons to develop the economy of this sector, as well as the use of natural gas for electricity generation in order to reduce electricity prices in the short term. In 2016, nearly 80% of Mexico’s total electricity was generated by thermal power plants. While natural gas prices stay low, there might be a limited role for natural gas to act as a fuel bridge in this sector if the government is to pursue deep decarbonisation targets to 2050. There is a risk that over-investing in gas infrastructure may delay a transition to lower carbon sources, potentially leading to less cost-efficient pathways towards decarbonisation. This analysis is based on three decarbonisation scenarios that have been modelled using an energy system optimisation model soft-linked to a power systems model. Our results suggest that a deep decarbonisation of the power system is techno-economically feasible and cost-optimal through renewables (mainly solar PV and wind); also, that decarbonisation paths post-2030 are largely dependent on the investment decisions made in the 2020s. It is therefore essential that Mexico’s energy planning decision-makers avoid a natural gas “lock-in” that would either cause carbon targets to be missed or risk leaving some natural gas infrastructure stranded.
Baltazar Solano-Rodríguez, Amalia Pizarro-Alonso, Kathleen Vaillancourt, Cecilia Martin-del-Campo
Mitigation Challenges for China’s End-Use Sectors Under a Global Below Two Degree Target
Abstract
To achieve a global below 2° climate target, every country would need to promote low-carbon transitions in their energy system. The biggest developing country, China, will face a particularly severe challenge to balance the increasing energy demand and the CO2 mitigation required by a below 2° target. Based on the energy system optimization results generated by a 14-region global TIMES model, this chapter aims to analyze the key challenges for China’s end-use sectors. Under the stringent CO2 emission constraint, significant improvements in energy efficiency and changes in energy structure resulting from electrification are expected to be achieved in the building, transportation and industry sectors. The penetration of high-efficient technologies requires the implementation of sufficient incentives like targeted policies or market mechanisms. Electrification needs the availability of abundant and stable electricity supply for end-use sectors since demand will increase rapidly.
Wenying Chen, Huan Wang, Jingcheng Shi
The Importance of the Water-Energy Nexus for Emerging Countries When Moving Towards Below 2 °C
Abstract
The Thirsty Energy initiative of the World Bank assists countries to address water and energy planning challenges in an integrated manner. The first two Case Studies for South Africa and China have been completed. The approach to developing “water-smart” energy planning models was different in the two Case Studies, with key findings and important insights arising from each. The most fundamental conclusion from both studies is that policies being pursued to mitigate climate change impacts reduce both CO2 emissions and water needs by the energy sector—with only modest increase in energy system cost, and that including the supply and cost of water has a dramatic effect on the upstream technology choices. For example, government mandated policies forcing dry cooling for new coal-fired power plants was reaffirmed as wise and appropriate, though at odds with achieving Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) which quickly disincentivizes the use of coal while promoting renewables and nuclear, as a major step towards achieving below 2 °C emission reductions. Thirsty Energy also examined the influence of climate change on energy and water planning, where results for the two Case Studies proved to be very different, as water availability in China’s northern Energy Bases may actually increase slightly, while in South Africa the water system is stressed forcing more dramatic changes in the energy sector.
Gary Goldstein, Pascal Delaquil, Fadiel Ahjum, Bruno Merven, Adrian Stone, James Cullis, Wenying Chen, Nan Li, Yongnan Zhu, Yizi Shang, Diego Rodriguez, Morgan Bazilian, Anna Delgado-Martin, Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm

The Role of Cities and Local Communities

Frontmatter
Challenges Faced When Addressing the Role of Cities Towards a Below Two Degrees World
Abstract
In order to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change to limit average global temperature rise to well under 2 °C, concerted action will be needed in cities to manage energy consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But, what can be done at city level to move towards such a global ambitious target? The project InSMART (Integrative Smart City Planning) brought together four EU cities: Évora (Portugal), Cesena (Italy), Nottingham (UK) and Trikala (Greece), and scientific organizations in these countries in order to try and provide some answers to this question. A methodology was established for enhancing sustainable energy planning for future city needs through an integrative and multidisciplinary approach, including City Energy System Models (ESM), development of different scenarios with a participatory workshop approach, and a multi-criteria assessment for the final ranking of measures and the development of a Sustainable Energy Action Plan. It is important not to overestimate the contribution and the area of influence of city-agents to the global GHG target; but it is undoubted that municipalities are extremely well positioned for actions related to households, and their consumption in buildings and transport, for bridging locally the gap between what is perceived/known and what would be economically and technically feasible and for urban planning with a focus on significant benefits for GHG emissions reduction.
George Giannakidis, Maurizio Gargiulo, Rocco De Miglio, Alessandro Chiodi, Julia Seixas, Sofia G. Simoes, Luis Dias, João P. Gouveia
Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Urban Areas: The Case of Oslo
Abstract
In the Nordic region, about 85% of the population already lives in urban settlements. Meeting the future energy demand in cities and urban areas in a sustainable way is an important challenge for the future. Sustainability has been integrated in the planning of many Nordic cities, and the Nordic capitals have the potential to lead the low-carbon transition by example. Oslo is a small city in a global context, but it wants to show how cities can take the responsibility for the development of sustainable energy systems with innovative ideas and solutions for the future. A technology-rich optimization model has been developed to analyze how various energy and climate policies and measures can transform the city of Oslo into a low-carbon city. One of the key findings from these scenarios is that the majority of the emissions from the stationary sector can be removed at a low abatement cost, and most of these actions are relatively easy to implement. The phase-out of fossil-fuels in buildings occurs in all climate mitigation scenarios explored. The transport sector completes its full transition to non-fossil fuels only when fossil fuels are banned by specific policies. In all cases, support to fuel and technology innovation appears essential to the low-carbon transition of Oslo.
Arne Lind, Kari Espegren
Achieving CO2 Emission Reductions Through Local-Scale Energy Systems Planning: Methods and Pathways for Switzerland
Abstract
Limiting the global temperature increase to well below 2 ℃ this century requires the implementation of climate policies not only on an international or national level, but also on a local scale. This study evaluates decarbonization pathways for Switzerland through local-scale energy systems planning under a national energy policy which reflects Swiss CO2 emission reduction targets within the Paris Agreement. Clustering techniques are applied to identify characteristic local energy systems (archetypes) across Switzerland. Key archetypes are then evaluated using a parameterized, least-cost optimization, community energy systems model in TIMES. Heat and electricity demands for residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors are considered. The study finds that locally generated CO2 emissions are reduced by 85% in 2050 relative to 2015, on average, across the evaluated archetypes and sectors. The implementation of high CO2 taxes drives this result. CO2 emission reductions are also driven by the uptake of efficiency measures (including renovations and efficient end-use devices). These measures should be encouraged by local governments as part of local climate strategies. Decision-makers should also encourage the local-scale deployment of heat pump and solar PV technologies, which are found to generate significant shares of heat and electricity by 2050, cost optimally, across the archetypes. The utilization of local energy resources, including biomass, also plays an important role in achieving significant local-scale emission reductions in the long-term.
Mashael Yazdanie
Metadata
Title
Limiting Global Warming to Well Below 2 °C: Energy System Modelling and Policy Development
Editors
Prof. Dr. George Giannakidis
Ph.D. Kenneth Karlsson
Maryse Labriet
Brian Ó Gallachóir
Copyright Year
2018
Electronic ISBN
978-3-319-74424-7
Print ISBN
978-3-319-74423-0
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74424-7