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Demography
Published in: Demography 6/2014

01-12-2014

Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes

Authors: Ryan K. Masters, Robert A. Hummer, Daniel A. Powers, Audrey Beck, Shih-Fan Lin, Brian Karl Finch

Published in: Demography | Issue 6/2014

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Abstract

Black–white differences in U.S. adult mortality have narrowed over the past five decades, but whether this narrowing unfolded on a period or cohort basis is unclear. The distinction has important implications for understanding the socioeconomic, public health, lifestyle, and medical mechanisms responsible for this narrowing. We use data from 1959 to 2009 and age-period-cohort (APC) models to examine period- and cohort-based changes in adult mortality for U.S. blacks and whites. We do so for all-cause mortality among persons aged 15–74 as well as for several underlying causes of death more pertinent for specific age groups. We find clear patterns of cohort-based reductions in mortality for both black men and women and white men and women. Recent cohort-based reductions in heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, female breast cancer, and other cancer mortality have been substantial and, save for breast cancer, have been especially pronounced for blacks. Period-based changes have also occurred and are especially pronounced for some causes of death. Period-based reductions in blacks’ and whites’ heart disease and stroke mortality are particularly impressive, as are recent period-based reductions in young men’s and women’s mortality from infectious diseases and homicide. These recent period changes are more pronounced among blacks. The substantial cohort-based trends in chronic disease mortality and recent period-based reductions for some causes of death suggest a continuing slow closure of the black-white mortality gap. However, we also uncover troubling signs of recent cohort-based increases in heart disease mortality for both blacks and whites.
previous article Why Lifespans Are More Variable Among Blacks Than Among Whites in the United States
next article Heterogeneity in Expected Longevities

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Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
Midyear population estimates for years 1959–1969 were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 1900–1979 files (http://​www.​census.​gov/​popest/​archives/​pre-1980/​PE-11.​html). Estimates for years 1970–1989 were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control CDC Wonder, Census Population, 1970–2000 files (http://​wonder.​cdc.​gov/​wonder/​help/​Census1970-2000.​html). Finally, estimates for years 1990–2009 were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control CDC Wonder, Bridged-Race Population Estimates (Vintage 2009) files (http://​wonder.​cdc.​gov/​bridged-race-population.​html). ICPSR Study No. 20680 contains Multiple Cause of Death Files for years 1959–1967; ICPSR Study No. 3905 contains Multiple Cause of Death Files for years 1968–1973; ICPSR Study No. 3906 contains Multiple Cause of Death Files for years 1974–1978; and ICPSR Study No. 4640 contains Multiple Cause of Death Files for years 2000–2002. The ICPSR makes other individual Multiple Cause of Death Files separately available up to year 2005. Multiple Cause of Death Files for years 2006 through 2009 were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System Data, which are available online (http://​www.​cdc.​gov/​nchs/​data_​access/​Vitalstatsonline​.​htm).
 
2
To assess the validity of mortality rate estimates from our final data set, we compared race- and sex-specific five-year age-specific mortality rates for years 1968 to 1992 with corresponding five-year estimates made available in the Berkeley Mortality Database (BMD) (http://​demog.​berkeley.​edu/​~bmd/​states.​html). Our yearly estimates between ages 15–19 and 70–74 are nearly identical to those made available in the BMD, save for estimates of black men’s and women’s mortality rates for 1970–1974. Across these years, our estimates are more stable than the BMD estimates. All tables and figures comparing our estimates of U.S. black and white men’s and women’s five-year age-specific mortality rates between 1968 and 1992 with BMD’s respective estimates are available upon request.
 
3
Age-period-cohort analyses were performed on an older sample composed of age groups 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, and 80–84.
 
4
We omitted 1963 from the 1960–1964 period because only one-quarter of deaths were officially recorded in 1963.
 
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Metadata
Title
Long-Term Trends in Adult Mortality for U.S. Blacks and Whites: An Examination of Period- and Cohort-Based Changes
Authors
Ryan K. Masters
Robert A. Hummer
Daniel A. Powers
Audrey Beck
Shih-Fan Lin
Brian Karl Finch
Publication date
01-12-2014
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Demography / Issue 6/2014
Print ISSN: 0070-3370
Electronic ISSN: 1533-7790
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-014-0343-4

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