49. Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis on Urban Transport of a Metropolitan of China in 2020

This article discussed possible ways of implementing effective energy conservation and GHG emission reduction measures by providing: the forecasts of mid-to-long term city-wide carbon emission rate; and the analysis of potential low-carbon transport solutions. According to the characteristics of the transport system in a metropolitan in China, the comprehensive carbon emission calculation model established in this article includes road traffic and urban rail transit. Existing data were utilized with regression analysis to project the prospective traffic data in the baseline scenario at the target year of 2020 to calculate the emission amount. Four low-carbon scenarios were set in accordance with the goal of “low carbon transportation, green trip”, and the effectiveness of each low-carbon scenario was evaluated by comparing them with the baseline scenario in terms of the respective GHG emission rate. The mode switching that increases the ridership of urban rail transit turned out to be the most effective outcome.