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Published in:
2012 | OriginalPaper | Chapter
7. LP-Forecasting of Risk and Crisis in Systems
Author : E. D. Solozhentsev
Published in: Risk Management Technologies
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
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Abstract
However difficult the problem may be, it will become more difficult, if you look at it in the wrong way.P. Anderson
We describe logic and probabilistic (LP) forecasting of risk in classes LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, LP-forecasting and also the special cases: forecasting with the exclusion of incorrect data; forecasting of the wear of the technical system; forecasting by the weights of initiating parameters distributions.
Forecasting is the most difficult procedure in science and, one can say, the crown of intellect and knowledge. In Risks management technologies we forecast by statistical data in time and in the space of system states.
On the one hand, we predict the system states, which are not present in statistical data, i.e. they are predicted in the space of system states. On the other hand, we predict the system states in the time function with the assumption that a number of time dependent factors influence the probabilities of initiating events.