Memory, Probabilistic Prognosis, and Presetting for Action

The organism’s reactions to changes in the environment require mobilizing numerous physiological systems, and therefore a certain amount of time. The more difficult the reaction, the more time its realization requires. However, too slow reactions may become meaningless. In the course of evolution, a mechanism has evolved to ameliorate this situation. Information on the probabilistic structure of previous individual experience is stored in memory. On the basis of this information, a probabilistic prognosis is constructed regarding the most likely future events. If in earlier experience an event A followed event B with high probability, then in response to the actual occurrence of A, the organism is able to execute a presetting: it is able to activate the structures necessary for reacting to the not yet present, but highly probable prognosed event B. The more highly developed the organism is, the better its capacity for probabilistic prognosis, and the more accurate, quick, and economic its reactions to changes in the surrounding environment.