Skip to main content
Disciplines
Automotive Business IT + Informatics Construction + Real Estate Electrical Engineering + Electronics Energy + Sustainability Insurance + Risk Finance + Banking Management + Leadership Marketing + Sales Mechanical Engineering + Materials
Events
DE
EN
Books
Journals
Topic Page
Marketing
Start single access now
Access for companies
EXTENDED SEARCH
Log in
Top
Published in:
High-Precision Method for Space-Time-Fractional Klein-Gordon Equation Read chapter Read first chapter

2024 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Modelling and Forecasting Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population) in Morocco

Authors : Oussama Rida, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemaa Achchab

Published in: Applied Mathematics and Modelling in Finance, Marketing and Economics

Publisher: Springer Nature Switzerland

Log in

Activate our intelligent search to find suitable subject content or patents.

search-config
loading …

Abstract

This study introduces a new stochastic diffusion process that is based on the generalized Goel-Okumoto curve. By analyzing the corresponding stochastic differential equation (SDE), we can accurately determine the probabilistic characteristics of the process, including its solution, transition density probability function, and distribution. To estimate the model parameters, we employ the maximum likelihood method and utilize discrete sampling. This allows us to formulate a nonlinear equation that can be efficiently solved using metaheuristic optimization algorithms like simulated annealing. The proposed model is then applied to fit and forecast data on Individuals using the Internet (% of population) in Morocco.

Dont have a licence yet? Then find out more about our products and how to get one now:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 102.000 Bücher
  • über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
  • Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Automobil + Motoren
  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
  • Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
  • Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe




 

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

  • über 67.000 Bücher
  • über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

  • Bauwesen + Immobilien
  • Business IT + Informatik
  • Finance + Banking
  • Management + Führung
  • Marketing + Vertrieb
  • Versicherung + Risiko




Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

inform now
previous chapter Comparison Between Gradient Descent and Adam Algorithms for Image Reconstruction in Diffuse Optical Tomography
next chapter A Comparative Study of Dam-Break Problem over a Sandy Bottom by an Unstructured Finite Volume Method
Footnotes
2
https://​data.​worldbank.​org. World bank.individuals using the internet (% of population) - morocco, 2019.
 
Literature
1.
Artzrouni, M., Reneke, J.: Stochastic differential equations in mathematical demography: a review. Appl. Math. Comput. 39(3), 139–153 (1990)MathSciNet
2.
Brousseau, E., Curien, N.: Internet economics, digital economics. Internet and Digital Economics Principles, Methods and Applications, vol. 1 (2007)
3.
Capocelli, R.M., Ricciardi, L.M.: A diffusion model for population growth in random environment. Theor. Popul. Biol. 5(1), 28–41 (1974)CrossRef
4.
David, P.A.: The dynamo and the computer: an historical perspective on the modern productivity paradox. Am. Econ. Rev. 80(2), 355–361 (1990)
5.
David, P.A.: Understanding digital technology’s evolution and the path of measured productivity growth: present and future in the mirror of the past. In: Understanding the Digital Economy: Data, Tools, and Research. MIT, Cambridge, MA (2000)
6.
Giovanis, A.N., Skiadas, C.H.: A stochastic logistic innovation diffusion model studying the electricity consumption in Greece and the United States. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 61(3), 235–246 (1999)CrossRef
7.
Goel, A.L.: Software reliability models: assumptions, limitations, and applicability. IEEE Trans. Softw. Eng. 12, 1411–1423 (1985)CrossRef
8.
Goel, A.L., Okumoto, K.: Time-dependent error-detection rate model for software reliability and other performance measures. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 28(3), 206–211 (1979)CrossRef
9.
Goodwin, P., Lawton, R.: On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE. Int. J. Forecast. 15(4), 405–408 (1999)CrossRef
10.
Gutiérrez, R., Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R., Nafidi, A.: Electricity consumption in Morocco: stochastic Gompertz diffusion analysis with exogenous factors. Appl. Energy 83(10), 1139–1151 (2006)CrossRef
11.
Kirkpatrick, S., Gelatt, C.D., Vecchi, M.P.: Optimization by simulated annealing. Science 220(4598), 671–680 (1983)MathSciNetCrossRef
12.
Kloeden, P.E., Platen, E.: Numerical Solution of Stochastic Differential Equations, vol. 23. Springer Science & Business Media (2013)
13.
Nafidi, A., Bahij, M., Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R., Achchab, B.: Two-parameter stochastic weibull diffusion model: statistical inference and application to real modeling example. Mathematics 8(2), 160 (2020)CrossRef
14.
Nafidi, A., Gutiérrez, R., Gutiérrez-Sánchez, R., Ramos-Ábalos, E., El Hachimi, S.: Modelling and predicting electricity consumption in Spain using the stochastic Gamma diffusion process with exogenous factors. Energy 113, 309–318 (2016)CrossRef
15.
Nafidi, A., Rida, O., Achchab, B.: Stochastic diffusion process based on generalized brody curve: application to real data. J. Math. Stat. Stud. 2(1), 01–11 (2021)CrossRef
16.
Román-Román, P., Torres-Ruiz, F.: A stochastic model related to the Richards-type growth curve. Estimation by means of simulated annealing and variable neighborhood search. Appl. Math. Comput. 266, 579–598 (2015)MathSciNet
17.
Seybert, H.: Internet use in households and by individuals in 2011. Eurostat Stat. Focus 66, 2011 (2011)
18.
Tuckwell, H.C., Koziol, J.A.: Logistic population growth under random dispersal. Bull. Math. Biol. 49(4), 495–506 (1987)MathSciNetCrossRef
19.
Vera, J.F., Dìaz-Garcìa, J.A.: A global simulated annealing heuristic for the three-parameter lognormal maximum likelihood estimation. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52(12), 5055–5065 (2008)MathSciNetCrossRef
20.
Metadata
Title
Modelling and Forecasting Individuals Using the Internet (% of Population) in Morocco
Authors
Oussama Rida
Ahmed Nafidi
Boujemaa Achchab
Copyright Year
2024
Book
Applied Mathematics and Modelling in Finance, Marketing and Economics

Print ISBN: 978-3-031-42846-3

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-031-42847-0

Copyright Year: 2024

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-42847-0_14

Premium Partners

    Image Credits