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2005 | Book

Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America

Editors: Rolf J. Langhammer, Lúcio Vinhas de Souza

Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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About this book

Latin America is a very important region of the globe, which has been buffeted by successive waves of economic instability within the last decades. These waves have caused several episodes of hyperinflation or near hyperinflation, and several currency and financial crises, which, in certain moments, have even spilled over and affected other emerging markets. This has resulted in huge costs in terms of lost potential growth, and, as is inevitable, the markets most affected by this have been the least capable of defending themselves. In a region plagued by still considerable rates of social exclusion, with some of the highest rates of income concentration in the whole globe, the human costs of these crises have been very substantial. Starting in the early 1990s, the slow implementation of reforms, plus the resumption of more sustained growth—to a substantial degree linked to the increase in commodity prices, especially since the early 2000s—seems to have resulted in a more stable situation. Initially, in early reformers like Chile, later in the larger economies of the region, like Brazil and Mexico, a consensus— embraced by both sides of the political spectrum—towards integration in global markets, both in their trade and financial components, floating exchange rates, independent monetary authorities, and sustainable fiscal policies has emerged.

Table of Contents

Frontmatter
Reducing Inflation through Inflation Targeting: The Mexican Experience
Abstract
This paper reviews the role of monetary policy in the disinflation process that has taken place in the Mexican economy in recent years. The purpose is to show that, once an economy establishes a sustainable fiscal position, an inflation targeting framework can be seen as an efficient mechanism to impose discipline on monetary policy and, thus, to reduce inflation. This paper describes the measures that were taken after the 1995 crisis to stabilize the economy and that prevented the possibility of a fiscal dominance situation from arising. Consequently, the role of monetary policy in reducing inflation is analyzed, in particular its response to different inflationary shocks. Results show that in conducting the successful disinflationary process, Banco de México’s responses to inflationary shocks have been consistent with inflation targeting principles.
Manuel Ramos-Francia, Alberto Torres
Comment on Manuel Ramos-Francia and Alberto Torres
Paulo Springer de Freitas
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence
Abstract
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows between Mexico and its NAFTA partners, and its impact on Mexican economic growth and business cycle dy-namics, are documented with reference both to stylized facts and recent empiri-cal research. The paper concludes by drawing lessons from Mexico’s NAFTA experience for policymakers in developing countries. The foremost of these is that in an increasingly globalized trading system, bilateral and regional free trade arrangements should be used to accelerate, rather than postpone, needed struc-tural reform.
M. Ayhan Kose, Guy M. Meredith, Christopher M. Towe
Comment on M.A. Kose, G.M. Meredith, and C.M. Towe
Lúcio Vinhas de Souza
Argentina: Monetary Policy by Default
Abstract
After the Argentine banking and financial crisis at the beginning of 2002, the Central Bank was left with few tools to use to mitigate the effects of the crisis and initiate monetary policy. After providing a brief review of the crisis, I consider the set of traditional monetary policy channels and evaluate which channels were available to the Argentine authorities and how they were able to exploit them after the crisis. I find that only three of the traditional monetary policy channels were fully functional: the exchange rate channel, the expectations channel, and the money channel. An interest rate channel existed, especially with the introduction of the LEBACs, but its effectiveness was reduced by the severe problems in the banking system. The asset channel, the credit channel, and the household balance sheet channel were almost irrelevant.
George T. McCandless
Comment on George T. McCandless
Alicia Garcia Herrero
Do Exchange Rates Matter in Inflation Targeting Regimes? Evidence from a VAR Analysis for Poland and Chile
Abstract
Alternative monetary policy strategies under flexible exchange rate regimes are described by a generalized reaction function, which is used as a starting point for the empirical investigation of the role of the exchange rate in inflation targeting regimes. A vector autoregressive model for Poland revealed that Polish monetary policy of the 1990s shows a clear break when the exchange rate as the nominal anchor is replaced by inflation targeting. Still, the exchange rate was not abandoned completely. In Chile, inflation targeting was in place for the entire sample period. Exchange rate policy is used in times of international financial turmoil.
Felix Hammermann
Comment on Felix Hammermann
Marcel Fratzscher
Argentina and Brazil Risk: A “Eurocentric” Tale
Abstract
This paper suggests that the practical operation of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) provides important lessons for authorities in developing countries struggling to implement sustainable exchange rate regimes to support economic convergence. These lessons are beginning to spread beyond the European continent, reaching in particular Argentina and Brazil. The difficulty in adapting a code of conduct like that of the ERM in Latin America is certain to be greater given the absence of financial reputation in either one of the two main members of Mercosul and the novelty of peer pressure among them. The “Eurocentric” tale this paper tells about Argentinian and Brazilian risk posits that the decoupling visible since 2001 could be sustained by enhanced regional surveillance in the Mercosul if financial reputation in its two main members were sufficient. While this tale is for the long term, it provides an anchor for the difficult choices Argentina and Brazil face in trying to earn credibility abroad.
Jorge Braga de Macedo, Martin Grandes
Comment on Jorge Braga de Macedo and Martin Grandes
George T. McCandless
Macroeconomic Shocks, Inflation, and Latin America’s Labor Market
Abstract
This paper looks at how macroeconomic volatility is transmitted to the labor market. It estimates employment, unemployment, and wage Okun coefficients and uses them to show that, compared with industrial countries, Latin American countries adjust to shocks more through wages than through employment. It shows that inflation plays some role in explaining the difference between em-ployment elasticity in Latin America and industrial countries but that there is a difference between the two regions that cannot be explained away by differences in inflation. When focusing on Latin America, the paper finds that within Latin America, inflation increases labor market flexibility in countries that have highly regulated labor markets and that enforce regulations.
Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Ugo Panizza
Comment on Ana Maria Loboguerrero and Ugo Panizza
Ansgar Belke
Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence
Abstract
The paper reviews the recent conduct of monetary policy and the central banks’ interest rate setting behaviour in emerging market economies. Using a standard open economy reaction function, we test whether central banks in emerging market economies react to changes in inflation, output gap, and the exchange rate in a consistent and predictable manner. In most emerging market economies, the interest rate responds strongly to the exchange rate; in some, the response is higher than that to changes in the inflation rate or the output gap. The result is robust to alternative specification and estimation methods. This highlights the importance of the exchange rate as a source of shock and supports the “fear of floating” hypothesis. Evidence also suggests that in some countries the central bank’s response to a negative inflation shock might be weaker than to a positive shock.
M. S. Mohanty, Marc Klau
Comment on M.S. Mohanty and Marc Klau
Rainer Schweickert
Backmatter
Metadata
Title
Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America
Editors
Rolf J. Langhammer
Lúcio Vinhas de Souza
Copyright Year
2005
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN
978-3-540-28201-3
Print ISBN
978-3-540-25583-3
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28201-7