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Environmental Earth Sciences
Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences 9/2014

01-11-2014 | Original Article

Monthly karstic spring flow forecasting using a sequential gaussian simulation technique

Authors: Seiyed Mossa Hosseini, Najmeh Mahjouri, Sajjad Bagheri

Published in: Environmental Earth Sciences | Issue 9/2014

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Abstract

Analyzing groundwater hydrologic equations related to karstic aquifers and spring hydrograph simulation have become the focus of many researches. Having double or triple porosity structure, mixed flow nature, and varying conduit permeability have made these formations become complex heterogenic systems with great temporal and spatial hydrodynamic variability. In this paper, a conditional sequential gaussian simulation (SGS) is used to simulate monthly flow data of five karstic springs with different hydrogeological properties, located in Zagros Mountain Chain, in western Iran. To evaluate the performance of the SGS algorithm, the results are compared with those of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the SGS model in simulation of monthly flows compared to the ARIMA model. They also show the suitability of this model for handling uncertainty associated with karstic spring flows through generation of several equally probable stochastic realizations.
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Metadata
Title
Monthly karstic spring flow forecasting using a sequential gaussian simulation technique
Authors
Seiyed Mossa Hosseini
Najmeh Mahjouri
Sajjad Bagheri
Publication date
01-11-2014
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Environmental Earth Sciences / Issue 9/2014
Print ISSN: 1866-6280
Electronic ISSN: 1866-6299
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-014-3262-1

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