Multiple Model Predictive Flood Control in Regulated River Systems with Uncertain Inflows

This paper presents a novel approach to real time automatic flood control in a managed river network that is subject to uncertain inflows. The proposed approach uses multiple models to represent inflows ranging from low to high flow. Optimal model selection is achieved in a minimum mean square error sense using a bank of Kalman filters to identify the most likely inflow characteristic. There are no a-priori probabilities assigned to the individual models. Model Predictive Control is used for water level controller design. Our Adaptive Multi Model Predictive Control (AMMPC) method is proposed as an alternative to existing techniques that also use multiple inflow models but with a-priori inflow model probabilities, either weighted or equally likely. The performance of the approach is demonstrated using a simulated river-reservoir model as well as using data collected at the Wivenhoe Dam during the 2011 floods in Queensland, Australia.