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2013 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

Noise-Induced Jumping Prior to a Fold: Applied to Climate Tipping Predictions

Authors : J. Michael T. Thompson, Jan Sieber

Published in: IUTAM Symposium on Nonlinear Dynamics for Advanced Technologies and Engineering Design

Publisher: Springer Netherlands

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Abstract

We present a scheme of analysis for predicting the approach to a fold in the noisy time series of a slowly evolving system. It provides estimates of the evolution rate of the control parameter, the variation of the stability coefficient, the path itself, and the level of noise in the time series. Finally, it gives probability estimates of the future time at which the system will jump to a remote (dangerous) steady state. We apply the technique, first, to the output of a computer simulation from a model for sudden cooling of the Earth. Second, we use the algorithms to give probabilistic tipping estimates for the end of the most recent glaciation of the Earth using actual geological data from the Vostok ice core.

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Title: Noise-Induced Jumping Prior to a Fold: Applied to Climate Tipping Predictions
Authors: J. Michael T. Thompson
Jan Sieber
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
Book: IUTAM Symposium on Nonlinear Dynamics for Advanced Technologies and Engineering Design
Print ISBN: 978-94-007-5741-7

Electronic ISBN: 978-94-007-5742-4

Copyright Year: 2013
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5742-4_1

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