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2022 | OriginalPaper | Chapter

On the COVID-19 Temporal Evolution in Brazil

Authors : J. A. Costa Jr., A. C. Martinez, J. C. Geromel

Published in: XXVII Brazilian Congress on Biomedical Engineering

Publisher: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This paper has two main objectives. The first one is to present a new dynamic model that describes, with adequate precision, the temporal behavior of the coronavirus epidemic that currently occurs in Brazil. Every day, the number of new infections provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health is taken into account. Thus, an assessment of the impact of social behavior on the evolution of the epidemic can also be made. The second objective is to analyze the need to develop a computational system, capable of simulating—with the Monte Carlo method—the dynamic behavior of epidemics allowing each individual to move through locations with different population densities.

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As a dictatorial decision, in June 06, 2020, the Brazilian government decided to stop publishing detailed data of the epidemics. Due to many contrary demonstrations, then the government gave up this measure.

In Brazil, it occurred on February 26, 2020.

The current population of Brazil is 210 million inhabitants, that is, \(M = 210\times 10^6\) individuals.

Since \(M \gg 1\) the pair of individuals can be chosen sequentially without replacement.

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Title: On the COVID-19 Temporal Evolution in Brazil
Authors: J. A. Costa Jr.
A. C. Martinez
J. C. Geromel
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Book: XXVII Brazilian Congress on Biomedical Engineering
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-70600-5

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-030-70601-2

Copyright Year: 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-70601-2_344