Proliferation of Weapons- and Dual-Use Technologies

The rapid pace of technological evolution in diplomatic, information, military, and economic sectors has contributed to a dynamic international policy environment.

Video manipulation and fraudulent simulation technology combines facial recognition with a neural network to allow its users to create fake impersonations of public figures. As this technology proliferates, it has the political to intensify political instability around the globe. By increasing the impact of misleading content, ‘video spoofing’ could lead to a rise in incidents stemming from fake news, imitation of authority, and plausible deniability. As each of these scenarios threatens key tenants of political stability—especially in states with weak or compromised political structures—it is within US national security interests to prepare for—and counter—the threat posed by this emerging technology.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-enabled capabilities have advanced considerably in the last decade and are expected to see increased employment by states and potentially by non-state actors in the ensuing years. This chapter explores how political, rhetorical, and security factors surrounding the research and development of AI-enabled capabilities interact and considers the implications for geopolitics. The widespread emphasis on the importance of AI globally, especially in the context of military capabilities and balance of power, is uncontested politically, and concurrently, it is also an area in need of more investigation by scholars.

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) have become a regular part of military operations and civilian life since the early 2000s. The proliferation of drone technologies has led to reduced costs and increased accessibility for individuals, states, and non-state actors. While extensive research and commentary have been made on the impacts of high-end military drones, the literature is comparatively sparse on the impacts of small UAS. With the regulations for civilian drones set to be finalized shortly, the potential impacts of small UAS on safety, privacy, and security need to be understood to have the right regulatory framework in place. This chapter deals with estimating the projected impacts of small UAS proliferation and increased autonomy on security. A robust analysis is presented by evaluating the disruptive potential of national security in various scenarios by analyzing the current and future trends of drone technologies, regulations, threats, and other important variables. The framework provided lays the groundwork for further studies into the impact of small UAS on security and hopes to inform future usage, perception, and policy surrounding these systems.

The United States dominance in science and technology is under threat due to large foreign investment in the development of dual-use technologies with a primary civil-commercial use but which could be directly misapplied to pose a significant threat with broad potential consequences to national security. In the last two decades, rising powers like China have increased their spending in domestic research activities. In late 2017, China diverted millions of dollars to finance applied research at universities based in Australia, a traditionally strong U.S. ally in the South Pacific. Among the disruptive technologies the Chinese investment aims to develop, “flexible and wearable technologies” (FWEs) stand out given the limited U.S. efforts to dominate an industry where there is no clear leader. To invert the current trend, to control proliferation of FWEs, and to maintain the technological advantage the U.S. economy and the military enjoy, the prevailing scholarship suggests the creation of U.S. based consortia linking universities, companies, and the federal entities. However, the hypotheses that consortia are the ideal institutions to favor diffusion of FWEs technologies and primarily confine diffusion domestically rest on empirical arguments. Analysis of more than 9000 patent records shows consortia promote FWEs diffusion if the countries involved are strong innovators, but it is not possible to prove that FWEs will diffuse locally. The U.S. could adopt a second mover strategy and acquire intellectual property (IP) developed by consortia to establish leadership in FWEs. Last, there is need for more effective international agreements to regulate IP developed through consortia.

Neurotechnology has experienced rapid growth and progress, and this could be attributed to the advances in the fundamental understanding of human brain activity, coupled with access to high technology. Additionally, it is a “dual use” technology as it has immense medical applications that could benefit the public and could also pose significant threat to the public safety and health. As the nature how wars are being fought change, neurotechnology can be used in military and counterintelligence applications, thus benefiting both the civilian and the military realm. Using three emerging neurotechnologies as case studies, this chapter addresses the potential medical and military applications of these technologies, while speculating on potential misuses. The possibility of exploiting neurotechnology by various actors for nefarious purposes is analyzed, along with hypothesizing the current, near, and far future use of neurotechnology in different environments.

A future increase in chemical warfare is a likely possibility due to advancements in delivery mechanisms, new urban battle fronts, and population growth. Chemical warfare agents have the potential to be more lethal and effective than they have throughout history. It is suggested that two well established technologies, adsorbents and non-woven fibers should be further investigated to create an affordable and scalable protective wear that can be easily deployed in the field for rapid protection.

The adaptation of civilian agricultural aircraft into a military attack and reconnaissance role represents a potential proliferation risk to US interests in areas of low-intensity conflict, particularly if the Chinese aviation industry builds on initial investments made by Chinese state-owned enterprises. Judging the likelihood of this shift, however, remains difficult. While not a high-tech threat, this type of aircraft has the potential to disrupt US diplomatic and military operations, as well as economic interests, in areas where advanced air-defense systems are not present, exploiting a narrow capabilities gap between these and man-portable countermeasures. The rapid advances Chinese firms have made in the international military UAV market and recent domestic reforms poise them uniquely to capitalize on the market for this type of aircraft, particularly in the African theater, and the issue begs closer attention from US military and intelligence institutions.

What constitutes an act of war has evolved throughout time but is largely agreed upon by most actors either by treatise or various global norms. Established rules of engagement apply to naval, ground, air, and even aerospace battle domains. International consensus on the rules doesn’t apply to cyber warfare, however, making for a murky international climate rife with tension, ambiguity, and plausible deniability. For this paper, data on national cyber programs for all UN-recognized 195 countries was coded looking for identifiable trends or interesting observations. Over 80 countries have some form of military-driven offensive cyber program. Intuitive associations that countries with a high percentage of internet users and high GDP per capita were not indicative of whether or not a country had an active offensive cyber operations campaign; nor was military size or the presence of a criminal code for cybercrimes. There was a loose association of national cybersecurity strategy and offensive cyber operations (OCO) programs, but of course it is one-directional: it’s not guaranteed that countries with a national cyber strategy have OCO programs. Other observations include: states share threat intelligence regionally more than they do internationally, and sharing agreements generally mirror political security alliances. With the rapid spread and lack of determining factors, we can confirm the choice to pursue OCO is a political one.

The attempt to create cheap, easy-to-use scientific equipment made for anyone, anywhere has made significant progress in the last decade in what innovators call frugal science. The emerging technology developed by frugal science to increase access to the experimental practice of the physical sciences through low cost and low electricity equipment and to lower the cost of medical devices so as to expand their application to impoverished areas is a subject of concern along with most other emerging technologies. While designed to help both kids generally and scientists in impoverished areas reach parity with their experimentalist counterparts in the developed world, the question remains: Will terrorists exploit such technology to develop chemical or biological weapons (CBW)? In order to address this question, we develop an analytical framework that assesses the overall threat of CBW terrorism. Through evaluation of terrorist motivations, capabilities, and other influencing factors, this framework analyses how emerging technologies, such as frugal science, affect motivated terrorist organizations in their pursuit of CBW. We use as a case study al-Qaeda’s CBW programs in the 1990s and early 2000s to demonstrate the small effect frugal science would have on the significant sociotechnical barriers faced by terrorist organizations. Results not only inform intelligence practitioners, law enforcement, and policy makers about the dual-use implications of emerging technologies, but also indicate the utility of this framework in future analyses and studies.

Can military aid to developing countries trigger innovation in the recipient economy? This question emanates from a puzzle in the literature and policymakers’ inclination to make aid more effective. Studies focused on military expenditure in the developed world show a positive relationship between military expenditure and innovation. Conversely, studies centered on military expenditure in developing countries often note the unintended, negative consequences of such expenditure. Borrowing from literature on innovation that examines diffusion channels from the military to the national economy, this research seeks to identify a similar process in developing countries. Using a congruence test on a least-likely case, this study finds that military aid—effectively a military expenditure subsidy—can indeed trigger innovation in a recipient economy. In Jordan, this is reflected by the emergence of an innovative domestic arms industry after its peace agreement with Israel and a major influx of U.S. military aid. Further, by dividing military aid into different sub-types and tracing and comparing their different effects, this study shows that military aid can lead to the emergence of new economic sectors when it supports the domestic government’s industrial vision and local economic priorities.

Conflict causes a large portion of the world’s existing and measured human displacement. In turn, displacement of individuals can also promote conflict. Through challenging economic and social stability, migration of individuals creates a disruption in which host nations or regions must accommodate and support the incoming individuals. The feedback loop analysis is expanded by considering a secondary cause of displacement—climate-induced disasters. Currently, individuals are being displaced at unprecedented rates due to both unstable political environments and changing climate conditions. I propose that internally displaced persons can stress nations, which contributes to increased likelihood of civil and external strife. Applying probit regression analysis, I explore this relationship between displacement and conflict. With data on internal displacement, militarized interstate disputes, and common trade control variables, this novel analysis adds to the existing displacement-conflict relationship literature by separately analyzing climate vs conflict-induced displacement and the respective impacts on militarized interstate disputes. There is a positive impact of disaster displacement on future conflict, especially when both nations in a pair experience disaster displacement. Results also suggest that contiguity, distance between nations, and political stability play important roles for conflict. This analysis is motivated with discussion on the channels of impact from displacement to conflict as well as the significance for United States national security.

Disease surveillance continues to grow in importance as new and reoccurring infectious diseases emerge and reemerge at increasing rates. The World Health Organization adopted the International Health Regulations in 2005 with the aim to prevent, protect against, control, and provide a public health response to the international spread of biological diseases and other threats (including chemical, radiological, nuclear, or other threats). To measure a country’s individual status and progress in building the necessary health security capacity, a Joint External Evaluation assessment from 95 countries completed from 2016 to 2019 are reviewed. Findings suggest that high and upper middle-income countries have established capacities to prevent, detect, and respond to biological, chemical, or radiological threats. Results show that low and lower-income countries are in the early stages of addressing priority areas. Continued funding is needed across low and lower-income countries in efforts to increase their surge capacities to respond to disruptions and contain outbreaks of high-threat diseases. The differences in health security are tied to adequate funding and contribute to health protection benefits. This chapter recognizes the importance of investment in multiple countries to develop health surveillance and response capabilities using complimentary public health approaches to address widespread disease concerns and suggests what additional resources may be needed.

Agroterrorism is a type of low-tech, high-impact biological, radiological, chemical, and, more recently, cyber terrorism targeted at the agriculture industry. With the abundance of information on developing biological weapons and the relative ease of accessing chemical agents, agroterrorism could be an attractive form of terrorism for separatist, religious, right-wing, and left-wing groups. The U.S. agricultural sector is a viable target for a terrorist attack because of the high economic, political, and social impact an attack can pose. This chapter finds that changes in human migration patterns could increase the risk of an agroterrorism attack in the United States. It also finds that the attention devoted to biological agroterrorism exposes the vulnerabilities of a potential radiological, chemical, and cyber agroterrorism attack.